Virginia vs North Carolina Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Back the Cavaliers to Keep Things Close Early On

North Carolina looks to extend its best winning streak in 26 years when it welcomes Virginia to town in the latest college football odds.  

Not only has the ACC Championship become a desirable realistic goal for the Tar Heels, but so has a trip to the College Football Playoff. As long as you are undefeated, you can have those aspirations, and North Carolina remained undefeated last week when it knocked off Miami by 10 points.

Meanwhile, Virginia has fallen on some hard times. It's been feisty in almost every game, but that competitiveness has yet to result in many wins. The Cavaliers will enter Week 8 with just one win to their name. 

What's the best bet in this matchup? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Virginia vs. North Carolina on Saturday, October 21.

Virginia vs North Carolina best odds

Virginia vs North Carolina picks and predictions

North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Mack Brown knows there is a chance that his team could come into this one sleepwalking. After all, who could blame them? They just beat Miami and cemented one of the best starts in school history; why should they be worried about a one-win team?

Not so fast. Try as Brown must, I think a let-down in this spot for the Tar Heels is nearly unavoidable, and I'm grabbing the Cavaliers early for my best bet. 

The situational aspect of this matchup and the potential let-down aspect after a big win play a significant part in this handicap. We see it every week, and we've seen it routinely in North Carolina. However, a deeper story surrounds the actual play on the field. 

The Virginia Cavaliers have found ways to be competitive this season, even though a 1-5 record does nothing to indicate that. Of their six games this season, the Cavaliers have covered the first-half spread in four of them. What stands out most about this game is their performance against Maryland, where Virginia managed to go into halftime tied at 14. Facing a similar offensive team in the upcoming matchup, it can take comfort in that previous performance.

Virginia has had a flip-flop nature to who starts as quarterback due to some injuries, but Monmouth transfer Tony Muskett will get the start on Saturday. North Carolina's passing defense currently ranks second-to-last in passing yards per game in the conference, so Muskett could be in for success in Week 8.

Statistically, Muskett has already faced a more stern test in Boston College, when he passed for 247 yards. Replicating something similar and controlling the time of possession could be enough to get the cover for us here. 

The stats are excellent, but really, they are secondary to the situational aspects surrounding this one. Yes, by name, this is a rivalry. It's deemed the "South's Oldest Rivalry" because the two have played since the 1880s. But it's not the type of rivalry that elicits intense hatred between the two schools.

And with that, North Carolina risks not having its antennas up for this one as it should. A few programs have earned the respect to expect them to take care of business each week, and North Carolina isn't one for me. Teams sleepwalk in spots, which fits the bill of a spot where UNC could be sleepy.

It also doesn't hurt that Virginia has a solid history of performances against this team, as the Cavaliers have covered five of the last six times that these two programs have faced. Throw in the fact that Virginia head coach Tony Elliott also has a good history of having his team ready after a bye week, and I'm forced to back the Cavs.

Give me Virginia to keep this one close, at least for a half, as they catch North Carolina holding on to last week's victory for too long.

My best bet: Virginia first half +12.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Virginia vs North Carolina same-game parlay

Virginia first half +12.5

Devontez Walker anytime touchdown

Tony Muskett 225+ passing yards

+442 at FanDuel

We're getting an excellent return on a simple SGP here by taking two highly correlated props to accompany the expected game flow that flows with our best bet.

Tar Heels wideout Devontez Walker made his season debut two weeks ago and has been electric ever since. He's coming off a historic game where he caught six passes for 132 yards and three touchdowns against Miami. Walker's emerging as Drake Maye's favorite target and this number is not priced correctly against a defense ranking in the 70s in defensive EPA.

We likely won't hit our best bet if Tony Muskett doesn't clear this number, so there's no reason not to throw his passing prop in here. As I already mentioned, while Boston College doesn't possess the athletes North Carolina has, it's been a better passing defense this season. Muskett reached this number against them, which gives me confidence that he can do the same in a matchup where Virginia will be playing from behind. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Virginia vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis

Although I expect this game to be close for a half, I'm under no grand delusions that Virginia can pull off the shocker. The North Carolina offense is far too overwhelming. It boasts the best QB on the field and easily the best offensive player in Devontez Walker at WR. The Tar Heels can afford to come into this one sleepwalking and still pull away in the second half.

This game offers the opportunity to "double-dip" on the live number. Once we cash our first half best bet, it would be an excellent time to jump on the live number on North Carolina. The Tar Heels are currently on a hot streak against the spread as they have covered three straight games and four of their last five. We've seen mixed results regarding this matchup, with North Carolina covering in six of the previous 10 meetings. 

I projected an Over/Under of 56.5, and oddsmakers have closely aligned with me. Virginia has been chiefly an Under team recently, with two of its last three going in that direction. The same holds for North Carolina, which has seen seven of its previous 10 games go Under. 

Virginia vs North Carolina betting trend to know

Virginia has hit the first quarter moneyline in two of its last three away games (+2.35 Units / 78% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Virginia vs North Carolina.

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