College football is as much about storylines as it is about crowning a national champion each year. As we round our way into Week 11, some of the more interesting stories of the season continue to develop, and that’s my focus for making some parlay picks for today's action.
The Alabama Crimson Tide were left for dead earlier in the year, but a supposed down year still finds the perennial contender with just one loss. Meanwhile, the Liberty Flames have a path to an undefeated season while Iowa continues to defy college football odds, hitting Under after Under no matter how low oddsmakers set the total.
I’ll be looking at all of those games — as well as one of the week’s marquee matchups — in my parlays down below, where you’ll find all my free college football picks for Week 10.
Week 11 college football parlay picks
- Alabama -10.5 + Liberty -13.5 + Rutgers/Iowa u28.5 = +581
- Georgia -9.5 + Over 54.5 + Carson Beck 250+ passing yards = +210
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best college football parlay Week 11
Following a tough loss to Texas and barely squeaking by South Florida a week later, the narrative had been set: Alabama was no longer a national power.
Of course, it was never going to be that easy to get rid of the Tide. Alabama has won seven in a row, looking increasingly impressive week after week. Not only has the team put up an 8-1 record, but they have a 6-3 mark against the spread despite the slow start. Even on the road this week, Alabama should be able to outmatch Kentucky, who is just 1-3 ATS in its last four.
Liberty has made waves in college football before, but none of its teams have been nearly as successful as the current squad, which holds a 9-0 record. In his first year as head coach, Jamey Chadwell has blitzed through an admittedly weak schedule and has the program in the AP Top 25 heading into Saturday’s battle with Old Dominion.
While the Monarchs have been playing better as of late, they are coming off a loss at home to Coastal Carolina. Meanwhile, Liberty continues to exceed expectations, covering in eight of its 10 games despite being favored in every contest. I expect the Flames to win by at least a couple of touchdowns at home and cover the spread yet again.
Finally, there may be no team more fascinating — if not fun to watch — than Iowa. Despite my expectations of some sort of regression to the mean, the Hawkeyes have hit four consecutive Unders, even though none of their totals have been above 38.5 in that span.
This week, Iowa gets to face off against Rutgers at home. The Scarlet Knights haven't produced much on offense against better Big Ten defenses, and there’s nothing quite like playing the Hawkeyes at home.
Iowa is allowed a paltry 13.7 points per game while also only scoring 18.4 points per game on offense. The Scarlet Knights are also excellent on defense, holding opponents to just 17.9 points per game.
Despite a low O/U of 28.5, I’m tired of expecting Iowa to eventually play in an interesting football game. I’ll take the Under.
Best college football SGP Week 11
One of my favorite ways to extract value out of same-game parlays is to take alternate lines that are deeper on the side of a market that I like. That’s what I’ve done this week, as I’ve found three alternative bets that I think make for a great SGP as Mississippi takes on Georgia.
The Bulldogs have won 26 straight regular season games and even a high-scoring Mississippi squad shouldn’t be able to change this as a visitor to Sanford Stadium. That said, Georgia is a mere 3-6 ATS this year, so while I expect the Bulldogs to get by with a win by multiple scores, I’m not in love with giving up 10.5 points. Let’s buy a point and take the safer -9.5 spread instead.
Did I mention that the Rebels can score? This Mississippi offense has scored at least 27 points in each of its last five games and is averaging 6.9 yards per play. While Georgia is known for its defense, the Bulldogs are just as good on the other side of the ball, averaging 39.3 points per game entering Week 11 play.
These two explosive offenses should keep the ball moving for four quarters. Even if the defenses put up resistance early, fatigue will become a factor due to the pace of play, leading to plenty of points. I’ll take the Over, but I’m buying it down to 54.5 just to have a little more leeway if the game starts slow.
Finally, Georgia quarterback Carson Beck continues to impress this season. The junior has thrown for 2,716 yards and 16 touchdowns in nine games this year, all while playing against a tough SEC schedule. Beck has also passed for at least 250 yards in every game this year, so I feel safe picking him to exceed that number yet again to round out our SGP.
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