With Christian McCaffrey set to make his first appearance of the season, the San Francisco 49ers should have a spring in their step when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.
At 4-4 in a wide-open NFC West, San Francisco still looms as a playoff threat, and my 49ers vs Buccaneers predictions buy into a fast start from the well-rested visitors.
Check out my NFL picks for this November 10 showdown, including more magic from George Kittle. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, with the game airing on FOX.
49ers vs Buccaneers prediction
My best bet
49ers -3.5 1H (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
In many ways, the season starts now for the San Francisco 49ers, as Christian McCaffrey’s likely return is a massive boost for a 49ers team that’s limped through the first eight games.
This small first-half spread is especially appealing with San Francisco’s rest advantage. A much-needed bye week offered ample time for Kyle Shanahan to get in the lab and script a creative opening series. Meanwhile, the banged-up Tampa Bay Buccaneers are reeling from dropping a heartbreaker on Monday night against the Kansas City Chiefs, and they’re sweating on more injuries in a thin receiving corps.
Most of all, this feels like a great spot for the 49ers to flex their offensive muscles, even if McCaffrey is on a strict snaps limit. San Francisco is quietly second in the NFL in yards per game (412.4), and the visitors should feast against a Tampa Bay defense that’s surrendering 255.9 passing yards per game this season — the third-worst in the league.
I’m a little nervous about Baker Mayfield’s late touchdown potential, so this first-half spread feels like a better play than the full-game -6.5 line, particularly with Brock Purdy and Co. sitting at 5-3 ATS in the first half this year. The 49ers, who’ve hit the 1H moneyline in eight of their last 10 road games, can send out a warning shot to the rest of the NFC on Sunday, and I see them making a flying start on both sides of the ball.
49ers vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
49ers -3.5 1H
George Kittle Over 59.5 receiving yards
Bucky Irving Over 45.5 rushing + receiving yards
George Kittle has been a regular on the injury report in prior seasons, but he’s started seven of San Francisco’s eight games this year — and it’s easy to wonder where the 49ers would be without him. The Kittle & Purdy connection has been huge for the visitors in the past four weeks, with the star tight end grabbing 25 catches for 342 yards and four touchdowns in that span.
I’m taking the Over on a Kittle receiving yards prop that’s crept up slightly this week but still sits at a number he’s hit in three of his last four contests. McCaffrey’s return will gradually shift the distribution of targets, but I still see San Francisco feeding Kittle plenty of targets on Sunday.
With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both sidelined, Tampa Bay has pivoted quickly and impressively to a passing game centered around its running backs and tight ends. Bucky Irving and Rashaad White are sharing a growing backfield workload, and I’m picking Irving as the bigger X-factor this weekend.
The 49ers have been stingy against the run, so this combo prop adds a bit more cushion for the total yardage. Irving had also eclipsed this O/U total in six straight games before being held in check by the Chiefs.
Irving has reached 40+ rushing yards six times already this season. Though he’s dealing with a toe injury, it didn’t stop him from playing in Week 9, so I expect another productive outing from the Bucs rookie.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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49ers vs Buccaneers odds
49ers vs Buccaneers live odds
49ers vs Buccaneers opening odds
- Spread: San Francisco -6.5 | Tampa Bay +6.5
- Moneyline: San Francisco -275 | Tampa Bay +210
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
49ers vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis
- It’s been a bumpy ATS year for both these teams, though the 49ers have covered the spread in two of their past three games.
- Tampa Bay has lost the past three meetings against San Francisco, including a 27-14 defeat at Levi’s Stadium last season.
- The Bucs have hit the team total Over in eight of their past 11 contests at Raymond James Stadium.
- San Francisco has given up at least 24 points in four straight contests, though the visitors have cashed in the 4Q Under in 12 of its past 19 games.
49ers vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
The Over is 8-2 in Tampa Bay's last 10 games, including the last six in a row. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Buccaneers.
49ers vs Buccaneers game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-10, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
49ers vs Buccaneers latest injuries
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