49ers vs Eagles NFC Conference Championship Props: CMC Takes Off in Philadelphia

The San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles face off in the NFC Championship game on Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Both the Eagles and Niners have very well-rounded teams with dominant defenses. However, there is also one weakness they each have, and Kyle Shanahan and Nick Sirianni will no doubt try to expose that flaw.

That's why I'm betting on Christian McCaffrey and A.J. Brown while expecting a lighter workload for Brock Purdy with my best free NFL player props for the 49ers vs. Eagles on January 29.

Be sure to also check out Jason Logan's full NFC Championship betting preview, as well as our AJ Brown spotlight picks!

49ers vs Eagles prop picks

• McCaffrey Over 57.5 rushing yards (-103)
• Brown longest reception Over 26.5 yards (-111)
• Purdy Under 31.5 passing attempts (-105)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

49ers vs Eagles NFC Conference Championship props

Run CMC

Philadelphia doesn't have many weaknesses, but one area where it has struggled is against the run, with the Eagles ranking 21st in the league in defensive rush DVOA. The Eagles surrendered 4.6 yards per carry during the regular season and gave up 118 yards to the Giants last week. 

We know Kyle Shanahan loves to run the ball, and he's going to be even more eager to rely on his running backs this week with Philadelphia so dominant against the pass.

Christian McCaffrey has a bruised calf, but he's already vowed to play in this game and should get plenty of chances to run the ball. McCaffrey's usage as a runner has been up and down since being acquired by San Francisco, but this is the kind of game where they need to get the ball into the hands of their best playmaker.

C-Mac has rushed for more than 100 yards in four of his last seven games, and even with Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel likely taking away some carries, he'll be able to go Over his modest rushing yards total. 

Christian McCaffrey Prop: Over 57.5 rushing yards (-103)

He's not human

Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown has been dealing with a hip issue for a while now, but that's likely not why he had just three catches for 22 yards in the divisional round.

Brown could be seen barking on the sidelines in that blowout win and has said that he wants the ball. While the Eagles didn't look his way much due to the game script last week, I expect Sirianni and Hurts to do a better job of targeting him on Sunday.

Brown finished the regular season fourth in the league with 1,496 receiving yards and has had a reception of at least 33 yards in each of his last six contests.

The 49ers were fifth in the league in defensive pass DVOA, but they struggled to defend vertical routes and were just 24th in DVOA against deep passes. Safety Talanoa Hufanga looked awful in coverage during the second half of the season and has blown far too many assignments for a defensive back headed to the Pro Bowl. 

A.J. Brown set career-highs in receiving yards (649), touchdowns (7), and receiving yards over expected (+222) on vertical routes as the Eagles main target in 2022.

The 49ers allowed 1,248 yards to vertical routes this season (5th-most in the NFL).#SFvsPHI | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/wsD36ml82m

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 25, 2023

The Niners have been able to mask their flaws at the back end of their secondary due to their strong pass rush. But as we saw against the Raiders in Week 17, they can be torched when they don't get pressure. With Hurts able to buy time with his feet, expect him to connect with Brown on a big gain.

A.J. Brown Prop: Longest reception Over 26.5 yards (-111)

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Purdy little passing 

This prop bet makes plenty of sense in tandem with the previous one. Niners rookie QB Brock Purdy has been one of the best stories of the season, but he's facing his toughest test on the road against an Eagles defense that led the league in both passing DVOA and sacks.

Purdy has made some big throws when called upon, but he's still a rookie. Shanahan knows that the 49ers will be better served if he's handing off the ball this weekend.

The Eagles lost only three times all season, but all of those opponents followed the same game plan — run the ball and control the clock. The Commanders carried the ball 49 times and had more than 40 minutes of possession, the Cowboys had 31 carries and 32 minutes of TOP, while the Saints had 35 carries (37 minutes). 

Since taking over as the full-time starter in Week 13, Purdy has attempted more than 30 passes in just one of seven games. With Shanahan likely looking to lean on his ground game and control possession on Sunday, take the Under 31.5 on Purdy's pass attempts.

Brock Purdy Prop: Under 31.5 pass attempts (-105)

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