49ers vs Steelers Week 1 Picks and Predictions: Defense Reigns Supreme in PA

The San Fransisco 49ers will be looking to put the bad injury luck from last year’s NFC Championship game behind them and start their 2023 campaign strong with a Week 1 visit to Pittsburgh for a showdown with the Steelers. The NFL odds list San Fran as -2 point favorites while this game has one of the lower totals of the week at 41.5 points.

While the 49ers are likely to have their top defender Nick Bosa back for the game after agreeing to terms on a new contract, Pittsburgh might have the top defensive player in the league in T.J. Watt who can radically change the flow of a game.

Here’s my free NFL picks and predictions for 49ers vs. Steelers on September 10.

49ers vs Steelers odds

49ers vs Steelers predictions

The standout unit on each of these squads is undoubtedly their defenses. The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a season where they ranked first in points allowed and third in yards per play allowed. While the Pittsburgh Steelers don’t have quite the same accolades from 2022, it’s fair to say their defense was completely different when T.J. Watt was on their field.

Watt played in just 10 games last season and when he was on the field, the Steelers defense was elite, allowing just 16.9 points per game. His absence was really felt in the seven games he missed, however, as the Steelers allowed 25.5 points per game without him. It’s also worth noting that the Steelers defense was much stronger on their home field where they ranked seventh in points allowed at 18.3.

The ceiling is high for the Steelers defense, but I think it’s flying under the radar that this offense isn’t even average. They ranked 26th in points per game and 27th in yards per play in 2022 while Kenny Pickett failed to throw more than one touchdown pass in any game during his rookie season. Keeping offenses coordinator, Matt Canada, on the staff could end up blowing up in Pittsburgh’s face as I don’t think he’s the guy to guide Pickett to the next level.

As for the 49ers offense, there’s not much to criticize, just a few things to question, most notably, how Brock Purdy looks to start the season. Purdy is coming off one of the more unlikely rookie seasons in recent memory but an elbow injury put an end to his season in the NFC title game. He does appear to be back at 100% and even saw some preseason action, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he doesn’t immediately recapture last season’s magic vs. this Steelers defense in a challenging playing environment.

Given each defense's high-level playing ability and some question marks on offense – especially on the Pittsburgh side – this profiles as a low-scoring game and I’m on the Under.

My best bet: Under 41.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

49ers vs Steelers same-game parlay

Under 41.5 points

49ers Team Total Under 23.5 points

Steelers +7.5

+135 at bet365

The Steelers closed out last season on a stretch that saw them allow 17 or fewer points in seven straight games that T.J. Watt played in. San Francisco’s offense also saw a drop-off of 5.6 points per game when on the road compared to at home.

I also like taking the Steelers outside of a touchdown here as I think their defense keeps this one close. Lopsided losses at home are rare for the Steelers as they’ve gone 15 straight games at home without a loss by more than seven points and have just two losses by more than seven points in their last 30 home games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

49ers vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has seen a little bit of movement in favor of the Steelers who originally opened at +3 while the total is holding steady.

Pittsburgh was a home underdog in three games last season and went 1-1-1 ATS. As an underdog in general, they were a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games when getting points. Each of those spreads, like this one, was inside of three points.

The 49ers went on an ATS tear in the second half last season that saw them go 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games including the playoffs. They were a rock-solid bet as a favorite all season, going 12-5 ATS.

This total is on the low end for good reason as low scores were the norm in Steelers games last season. They saw an average combined score of just 38.5 in their games with the number dipping down to 33.1 in their last six games. 

49ers vs Steelers betting trend to know

The San Francisco 49ers have only hit the 1st quarter Moneyline in three of their last 10 away games (-7.15 Units / -45% ROI). The Steelers are available on the 1st quarter moneyline at -105. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Steelers.

49ers vs Steelers game info

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