49ers vs Texans Preseason Picks and Predictions: Houston's Depth Shines Through

Thursday Night Football will be the backdrop for the final preseason tune-up for the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans. The visiting 49ers enter as 3.5-point favorites as both teams are expected to run their starters out to begin the game.

Both teams won’t begin the regular season until September 11. Find out where my best bet lies in our free NFL picks and predictions for 49ers vs. Texans on August 25. 

49ers vs Texans odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The 49ers opened as high as -4 and hit -3 periodically before getting bet back up to -3.5. The total opened at 39.5 and shot up as high as 41.0 on Wednesday.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

49ers vs Texans predictions

• Prediction: Texans +3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 41.5 (-109)
• Best bet: Over 41.5 (-109)

Predictions made on 8/24/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

49ers vs Texans game info

• Location: NRG Stadium, City, State
• Date: Thursday, August 25, 2022
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: Amazon Prime

49ers at Texans betting preview

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Betting trend to know

The Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Texans.

49ers vs Texans picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Preseason will wrap up for the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans following Thursday night's final preseason game at NRG Stadium. Both teams are expected to start their first-stringers, which is why the 49ers are more than a field goal favorite. However, how much run are the 49ers’ starters going to get against the Texans, who have plenty of competent quarterback depth?

Kyle Shanahan said he wants the starters to get some continuity since they haven’t played since the first game of the preseason. He plans on the starters to get a couple of drives (a half at max) but also stressed that health is the most important thing. 

Kyle Shanahan on @KNBR says he would like to have Trey Lance and the #49ers starters get a "couple of drives." Said yesteday it would be a half max.

— 49ers Webzone (@49erswebzone) August 24, 2022

Starter Trey Lance looked good in the first week of the preseason with a 4-for-5 showing for 92 yards — including 76 yards on one completion. Shanahan will likely want to keep his reps light with a backup plan of Nate Sudfield behind him as Jimmy Garoppolo is not expected to suit up. 

With the amount of pressure the Texans have been generating in the preseason (11 sacks and 16 pressures without their veteran defensive linemen who will most likely play Thursday), keeping Lance out of trouble may be the best option for a coach who historically doesn’t value the final score in preseason games.

Davis Mills was not impressive in his first five drives last week as the offense punted four times, then fumbled before scoring in the final drive of the half. I’m not rushing out to get the Texans in the first half — which will likely open as a field goal or more — but Houston has some solid depth for the later quarters.

Backups Jeff Driskel and Kyle Allen have a combined 26 NFL starts under their belts. In the preseason, the two have also gone a combined 28-for-39 for four touchdowns, and Driskel has added 27 yards on the ground on five rushes.

With plenty of offensive positions up for grabs — including the No. 3 receiver job and backup running back — Houston could be keeping some of their better talents in later than the visitors.  

The Texans might be playing from behind in this one, but Driskel has already orchestrated two come-from-behind 4th-quarter wins in the preseason. 

With the pressure the Texans have been generating coupled with the 49ers' penalty troubles (16 through two games), San Francisco could be playing behind the sticks Thursday night.

Add in a Houston team with better QB depth plus plenty of high-end position battles on offense, and I’ll be taking the points Thursday night. 

Prediction: Texans +3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

The total has already seen movement, as bettors have moved the number up to 41.5 at most books after opening at 39.5.

Even without the starters playing last week, the 49er backups ran 74 offensive plays and totaled 344 yards. The yards per play wasn’t off the charts, but the pace is certainly something that would favor the Over. 

I also wouldn’t look too much into the 49ers holding the Vikings to 195 yards and seven points last week, as the list of absences on Kevin O’Connell’s team was extensive. 

There could be the potential for plenty of second-half points as well. Driskel and Allen had no issues moving the offense in the back half of the game last week. Outside of the opening third quarter drive that resulted in a punt, the Texans scored on three straight drives and totaled 181 total yards. All three Houston QBs had a passing TD last week as well.

Houston started this drive with only 31% Win Probability.
It dropped to 25%
It jumped to 43% on the 4th down conversion
It Jumped to 67% on that pass interference
and ended at 85% with that Touchdown

Don't tell Jeff Driskel the ODDS!!!!!

— Sam Schwartzstein (@schwartzsteins) August 20, 2022

Royce Freeman and Dare Ogunbowale are running hard as they fight for the likely No. 2 spot behind preseason standout Damien Pierce. There are also quality preseason backs in Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead, who can also make a difference in the passing game. 

The San Francisco passing game could also have an edge with the Texans not needing to see much from their starting cornerbacks in Derek Stingley and Steven Nelson, who saw very few snaps last week and could see the same workload again Thursday.

Houston has the edge in late quarterback play, but Nate Sudfield and Brock Purdy have offensive wizard Kyle Shanahan guiding them. Sudfield and Purdy have gone 38-for-57 for 369 yards and zero interceptions so far in the preseason.

Even after missing the two-point climb on the opening total, I’m hitting the Over 41 as both teams have the ability to put up points consistently for 60 minutes.  

Prediction: Over 41.5 (-109 at Coolbet)

Best bet

With most bettors likely fixing on the starters, I like the back-end of this game from a point-scoring standpoint.

Driskel has already led the Texans to a pair of come-back wins this preseason, and he and Allen have moved the ball effectively. Houston also has key position battles for the No. 2 and No. 3 running back spots and the No. 3 and No. 4 wide receiver roles, which could mean late reps from skilled players.

Lance looked good in his first run two weeks ago and should see a decent leash since the 49ers won’t play again until September 11. Shanahan will want to work on his new QB, which could also mean more passing from the visitors Thursday night over the first few series. 

If the starters can produce some scores, I’m confident the backup QBs can also move the sticks on the short week.

Pick: Over 41.5 (-109 at Coolbet)

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