The Monday Night Football skies could be missing a few stars when the San Francisco 49ers visit Minneapolis to tangle with the Minnesota Vikings in tonight's Week 7 finale.
San Francisco will be without versatile wide receiver Deebo Samuel and star running back Christian McCaffrey is banged up. Meanwhile, Minnesota continues to deal with the rather larger gap in its offensive production since stud receiver Justin Jefferson went on IR.
The 49ers’ injuries have kept NFL odds tethered to a shorter spread, with the Niners laying just below a touchdown in MNF odds.
I pick apart this spread and Over/Under total and give my best NFL picks and predictions for 49ers at Vikings on Monday, October 23.
For more MNF coverage, check out our Brock Purdy odds and props spotlight and our best MNF prop picks.
49ers vs Vikings odds
49ers vs Vikings predictions
The Vikings are scrambling to keep scores coming since Justin Jefferson went down with a bum hammy. Minnesota is in an “all hands on deck” scenario versus this 49ers defense in Week 7.
One guy they’ve been waiting on to step up and fill Jefferson’s sizable receiving gloves is veteran WR K.J. Osborn.
He’s been quiet despite the opportunity to draw more targets the past two games, reeling in nine receptions on 14 targets for a grand total of 91 yards. Those efforts and the opposition on Monday have Osborn’s Week 7 receiving yards prop down to 41.5 yards O/U.
This prop total opened at 38.5 yards and has climbed since midweek, as has Osborn’s reception total of 3.5 (as big as Over -175). Even at this current adjusted spot, Osborn enters Monday Night Football in good shape to top this number.
Player projections for Week 7 are quite optimistic, with the bulk of models calling for at least 50 yards from Osborn, with a ceiling close to 59 yards and my number sitting at 52 yards. His reception projections are bouncing between 4.5 and five grabs as well.
Osborn saw his snap count spike with Jefferson out, taking the field for 64 and 53 snaps, respectively, the past two games. He topped receiving yard totals of 30.5 and 40.5 yards in those respective games and has surpassed his receiving prop O/U in five of six games so far in 2023.
Osborn has been leaving yards on the table as well, heading into Week 7 with four dropped passes, tied for second most in the NFL. He’s caught just 17 of 31 throws his way and averages 12.6 yards per reception.
Game script leans into a bigger passing performance from Minnesota, with the Vikings (+6.5) expected to be playing from behind and forcing the offense to put the ball through the air more. That pass game could be even more prominent, considering San Francisco’s paced attack chews up possession and limits opponents’ touches.
My best bet: K.J. Osborn Over 41.5 receiving yards (-108 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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49ers vs Vikings same-game parlay
K.J. Osborn Over 41.5 receiving yards
K.J. Osborn Over 3.5 receptions
George Kittle anytime TD
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Osborn has topped his receiving yard total in all but one game in 2023, and his player projections call for 50-plus yards.
Osborn is also seeing positive forecasts for his receptions total, especially if he can remedy those drops.
National Tight Ends Day may be Sunday, but George Kittle will celebrate with a score on Monday night. He's tallied 10 touchdowns in his last 11 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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49ers vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis
The offseason markets tabbed this monster Monday matchup with the 49ers as 2.5-point road favorites when the schedule was released in the spring. However, a lot has changed in terms of perception for these teams since the start of the season.
With the Vikings stumbling out of the blocks and the Niners surging, the look-ahead line (set before the Week 6 results) listed San Francisco as big as -7.5. But after the Niners suffered their first loss to Cleveland last Sunday, and watched Samuel and McCaffrey leave with injuries, the official Week 7 opening spread hit the board at a touchdown and immediately slipped under the key number to 49ers -6.5.
My raw power ratings (before any adjustment for injuries or situations) produced San Francisco as 10-point road chalk against the 2-4 Vikings. While this game gives the 49ers and extra day to recover, it will be their second straight road game and the absences of Samuel and CMC are worth that four-point dip.
According to Covers Consensus, 60% of picks are siding with San Francisco while sportsbooks like BetMGM are reporting heavy one-sided play on the visitors, with 86% of ticket count and 87% of handle riding on the 49ers.
Despite missing some key cogs on offense, the Niners bring a big bad defense to the dome in Minnesota. San Francisco is fifth in defensive DVOA at FTN and enters this primetime game No. 3 in EPA allowed per play, limiting foes to a league-low 14.5 points per game.
The Vikings have had a tough time lighting up the scoreboard this season, especially since losing Jefferson to a hamstring injury. Minnesota has mustered scores of 21, 20, and 19 points the past three outings despite playing some less-than-stellar defenses in Carolina and Chicago in that span.
To make matters worse, Minnesota’s defense hasn’t been great at picking up the slack. The Vikings may have been able to fend off the toothless attacks of the Panthers and Bears, but this unit still sits in the middle of the road in terms of advanced defensive metrics.
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores is running his trademark aggressive defense, with the Vikings blitzing at a league-high 58% rate, but those added pass rushers aren’t creating the chaos Flores wants. Minnesota boasts a pressure rate short of 24% with 18 sacks and just six takeaways on the season.
Kyle Shanahan faced a similar blitz-happy defense back in Week 3, torching the New York Giants for 30 points on 441 total yards. That said, second-year QB Brock Purdy isn’t great under pressure according to PFF’s ratings and is coming off a rough Week 6 in which he limited by the Browns’ top-ranked defense.
This Over/Under total opened at 44.5 points and has slipped to 44 points as of Sunday morning. Covers Consensus shows 58% of picks on the Over while BetMGM books are reporting 53% of bet count on the Over but 79% of money taking the Under on Monday.
The Niners’ busy pre-snap movement chews up a lot of play clock, which has San Francisco running the slowest tempo in terms of seconds per snap. The 49ers are 3-2-1 O/U on the season, and with Samuel and potential McCaffrey out, the team could lean into the defense to do the job.
The Vikings enter Week 7 1-5 O/U, thanks in large part to the underperforming offense. Minnesota runs the third-fastest tempo in terms of second per snap and the third-highest rate of no-huddle but averages just 60.5 plays per game (25th), with that number dropping to 55.7 plays per game the last three outings.
49ers vs Vikings betting trend to know
Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are 7-2 SU but just 2-7 ATS when laying more than six points on the road since 2017 (22%). That includes a 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS mark this season. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Vikings.
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49ers vs Vikings game info
| Location: | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Monday, October 23, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, ABC |
| Opening odds: | Vikings +7, 45.5 O/U |
49ers vs Vikings latest injuries
49ers vs Vikings weather
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