Monday Night Football sees the return of Aaron Rodgers, who missed all but a couple of minutes of last season with an Achilles injury. Rodgers has proved the doubters wrong and made it back to the field, and in a beautiful twist of fate, he’ll return against the team who famously didn’t draft him back in 2005.
I’ve taken a long look at the Aaron Rodgers odds at various sportsbooks to find the best way for you to get involved on the Jets QB with my NFL picks for Monday, September 9.
Aaron Rodgers MNF player prop picks
- Best Bet
Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 interceptions
(-114 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Rodgers Over 47.5 1Q pass yards
Garrett. Wilson o5.5 receptions
Wilson anytime TD
(+406 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Aaron Rodgers MNF prop pick
My best bet
Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 interceptions (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Love him or hate him, there’s no denying that Aaron Rodgers is box office gold and the NFL is richer for having the former Packer playing. Now with the New York Jets, he’s looking to relaunch his career for the second time following the horrific injury he suffered in the early minutes of last season’s Week 1 game against the Bills.
A lot of the talk this offseason around the Jets has concerned Rodgers and what the return of the quarterback means for the team. They suffered with terrible QB play following his injury last season and there’s a belief that his return propels them into a deep playoff run. There’s a real chance of that happening, but we also need to be realistic about expectations. This is a 40-year old man returning from an Achilles rupture.
Will Rodgers return to his best? That’s still an unknown but we have to expect an uneven start to his return as he finds his feet back on the field.
With that in mind I’m backing Over 0.5 interceptions for the former MVP. He’s up against an impressive defense in the San Francisco 49ers, a team that was tied for the most interceptions in the NFL in the last regular season (22).
We also need to consider that Rodgers had begun to decline in his final season with the Packers. The 2022 season saw him get intercepted 12 times, only one less than the three previous seasons combined and the second-most interceptions of his career. His last season in Green Bay also saw his lowest passer rating as starting QB.
With his decline and return from injury, there’s a strong chance we don’t see the best Aaron Rodgers, so grab that -114 on an INT while you can.
Aaron Rodgers MNF same-game parlay
Aaron Rodgers Over 47.5 1Q passing yards
Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 receptions
Garrett Wilson Anytime TD
With no interception markets available for an SGP, I'm taking Over 47.5 passing yards in the first quarter for Rodgers.
The one thing we know about Rodgers is that he has an ego and he’s always desperate to prove people wrong. Coming back from this injury now gives him a chance to show his doubters again that he’s a true great, so expect him to come out firing with his arm, which could lead to a mistake later on. The 49ers' defense are good but we could easily see a hungry Rodgers carve them up for 48+ yards in a couple of plays.
I'm also going to add two more legs around his favorite pass catcher, Garrett Wilson. Rodgers has been hugely positive around Wilson since arriving in New York and spoken frequently about just how good he can be. Throughout his career we’ve seen him consistently feed his favorite WR, and now it’s Wilson’s turn. Davante Adams averaged 9.47 targets per game in Rodgers' last season in Green Bay and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Wilson get similar looks.
I'm also backing the former Ohio State man to find the endzone, as he managed to haul in 11 touchdowns passes from the likes of Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle in 2023. Rodgers may no longer be at his best but he’s a huge upgrade on those guys and Wilson’s ability plus the volume and accuracy of Rodgers give this a great chance of landing.
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