The NFL season is back with a bang, and with it comes the demand for NFL picks against the spread.
Lucky for you, I will be providing ATS picks for every single NFL game from Thursday's curtain-raiser between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs right through until the Week 18 finales.
Join me as I offer up my insight for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Week 1 picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Ravens vs  Chiefs |
(+3) |
 Packers vs  Eagles |
(+2.5) |
 Titans vs  Bears |
(-3.5) |
 Texans vs  Colts |
(-2.5) |
 Cardinals vs  Bills |
(-6) |
 Patriots vs  Bengals |
(-8.5) |
 Steelers vs  Falcons |
(-3) |
 Panthers vs  Saints |
(-4) |
 Jaguars vs  Dolphins |
(+3) |
 Vikings vs  Giants |
(+1.5) |
 Raiders vs  Chargers |
(+3) |
 Broncos vs  Seahawks |
(+6) |
 Cowboys vs  Browns |
(+2.5) |
 Commanders vs  Buccaneers |
(-3.5) |
 Rams vs  Lions |
(-3.5) |
 Jets vs  49ers |
(+4) |
Lines courtesy of bet365 as of 9-3.
Week 1 ATS picks
Ravens vs Chiefs (-3)
The Baltimore Ravens have been stewing about last year's AFC Championship game loss all offseason. With the addition of Derrick Henry, I expect them to employ a possession-type game plan, which will leave Patrick Mahomes with limited opportunities to produce.
Packers vs Eagles (-2.5)
The Philadelphia Eagles fell flat on their face to close out last year, while the Green Bay Packers were trending upwards. With Jordan Love elevating his game after a good offseason, I see the Packers making a statement and pulling off the win in Brazil.
Titans vs Bears (-3.5)
It's the Caleb Williams show in the Windy City, and I believe he'll be able to shred a Tennessee Titans defense that's in line to be middling at best. Oh, and did I mention, Will Levis will be under center with no Derrick Henry to hand the ball off to?
Texans (-2.5) vs Colts
These two teams typically play each other tough, but the Houston Texans should have the edge in the opener. The Indianapolis Colts' secondary still has plenty of cause for concern, and with the way the Texans' offense meshed last year, with the addition of Stefon Diggs, it could spell trouble for Indy.
Cardinals vs Bills (-6)
Kyler Murray didn't see the field the entire preseason so why are we to believe he can cover this spread on the road vs. a good Buffalo Bills team? No Stefon Diggs, no problem for Josh Allen & Co.
Patriots vs Bengals (-8.5)
Joe Burrow > Jacoby Brissett. That and the Cincinnati Bengals have far more offensive weapons to utilize, and they are at home with high expectations this season.
Steelers vs Falcons (-3)
The Pittsburgh Steelers had to choose between "bad or worse" at quarterback, and I believe they chose the worse option (Russell Wilson). The offense will be limited, and the Atlanta Falcons will love playing for anyone other than Arthur Smith.
Panthers vs Saints (-4)
The Carolina Panthers looked like they were in midseason form this preseason, and that's not a positive thing. The offense will struggle to score points once again, and the New Orleans Saints' defense should do enough to shut the door. Derek Carr needs a good showing to get the confidence up and I believe he delivers.
Jaguars vs Dolphins (-3)
Maybe I'm on an island on this one, but the Miami Dolphins just don't do it for me. They have good pieces and an innovative coach, but Tua Tagovailoa doesn't really move the needle for them. I like the Jacksonville Jaguars to go on the "road" and upset the Fins.
Vikings (-1.5) vs Giants
In a game nobody should watch, give me the small home underdog. Sooner or later, Daniel Jones has to figure it out, and maybe the rumors of him dating smokeshow Kay Adams will elevate his game.
Raiders vs Chargers (-3)
There are a lot of issues with the Los Angeles Chargers, including questionable tags for Justin Herbert and Joey Bosa (their two best players). The Las Vegas Raiders, while trotting out Gardner Minshew, have enough good pieces around him to make plays to pull off the upset win.
Broncos vs Seahawks (-6)
The last time these two hooked up was a one-point win by the Seattle Seahawks. I expect a similar low-scoring slogfest on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. Oh, and did you hear? Bo Nix might just be legit and give the Denver Broncos their QB of the future.
Cowboys vs Browns (-2.5)
Deshaun Watson is still somehow a free man despite robbing the Cleveland Browns of hundreds of millions of dollars. He'll have no real run game to support him as Nick Chubb and Hyheim Hines are out, which means he'll be passing trying to evade Micah Parsons and that elite Dallas Cowboys pass rush. Dallas opens up the season with a good road win.
Commanders vs Buccaneers (-3.5)
This is another game nobody should voluntarily watch unless you've got tickets to it, but I'll take Baker Mayfield & Co. over a raw rookie in Jayden Daniels.
Rams vs Lions (-3.5)
If there's one game that could hit 60 points, this is the one, but ultimately, I feel Jared Goff has one too many weapons for the Los Angeles Rams to stop, which is why I can see a Detroit Lions cover on Sunday Night Football.
Jets vs 49ers (-4)
This is Aaron Rodgers' second go-round at his New York Jets debut, and while it should last more than four plays (hopefully), I believe it'll be a productive one. The Jets' defense can be one of the best in the game this year, and catching over a field goal seems like a good spot to back a team with plenty to prove.
Not intended for use in MA.
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