The Caesars Superdome will play host to Thursday Night Football in Week 7, with the New Orleans Saints looking to snap a four-game skid by topping the visiting Denver Broncos.
New Orleans is dealing with a number of injuries to key offensive starters, and my NFL picks for the Alvin Kamara odds expect Denver's defense to hold the dynamic running back in check on October 17.
Make sure to also check out our Broncos vs. Saints predictions before placing your bets!
Alvin Kamara TNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 110.5 rushing + receiving yards
(-114 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Under 110.5 rushing + receiving yards
25+ receiving yards
4+ receptions
(+275 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Alvin Kamara TNF prop pick
My best bet
Under 110.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
New Orleans Saints veteran running back Alvin Kamara has either missed practice time or been a limited participant due to a laundry list of injuries ahead of each of the past three games, and it’s beginning to impact his statistical production.
Kamara played through a rib injury and a hip pointer in Weeks 4 and 5 before picking up a hand injury ahead of last week’s game against Atlanta. The star RB popped up on Monday’s estimated injury report as a limited participant with a hand injury.
He isn’t the only New Orleans starter on offense nursing injuries, either. Quarterback Derek Carr (oblique), right guard Cesar Ruiz (knee), center Lucas Patrick (chest), and wide receivers Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee) were all estimated to be unavailable to practice Monday, while tight end Taysom Hill (rib) was also listed as limited.
The injury-depleted offense will make Kamara easier to limit on the short week, and as noted, he’s been unproductive the past two weeks. Kamara has turned his 24 carries into just 66 rushing yards (2.8 per tote) while hauling in 11 of 16 targets for 64 receiving yards.
Additionally, Kamara hasn’t taken a single rush for double-digit yards the past two weeks, and he posted a 0.0 elusive rating against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, per PFF.
Now to the kicker: the Denver Broncos have been sound against the run — allowing the eighth-lowest yards per carry to RBs, ninth-lowest EPA per rush, and rank 10th in rush-stop win rate.
The New Orleans stop unit has also fallen off the map during its four-game losing streak, surrendering the second-most yards per play, eighth-highest EPA per play, and highest EPA per rush. Denver should have success on offense and win the time-of-possession battle.
I expect Kamara and the Saints to face big trouble in The Big Easy on Thursday night.
Alvin Kamara TNF same-game parlay
Under 110.5 rushing + receiving yards
25+ receiving yards
4+ receptions
Kamara has been more consistent — and dangerous — through the air in recent weeks. He’s turned his 25 targets into 18 receptions for 106 yards while garnering a 48.1% target share per route run across the past three games.
The 29-year-old back also enters Week 6 with at least 25 receiving yards in five of six games and four or more receptions in four of his last six.
There’s also potential for the Saints to have trouble running the ball Thursday, and as highlighted, Kamara’s been bottled up on the ground in consecutive games. I expect New Orleans offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to look to involve Kamara through the air early and often to mitigate the Denver pass rush.
After all, the Broncos rank third in blitz rate, fourth in pressure percentage, and first in pass-rush win rate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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