The NFL expected this Monday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings to mean a lot more when they cooked up the Week 15 schedule.
But with Chicago on a seven-game slide and Minnesota marching toward the playoffs on a six-game winning streak, motivations are mixed on Monday night.
That said, the last time these division rivals butted heads, we had 57 total points in a thrilling overtime win for the Vikings in Week 12. That could open up value in the always popular anytime touchdown props, considering the total is at 44 points.
I dig into this NFC North clash and give my best anytime TD NFL picks and predictions for Bears at Vikings on December 16.
Bears anytime touchdown pick
DJ Moore anytime touchdown
+210 at FanDuel
Chicago Bears WR DJ Moore had a monster game against the Minnesota Vikings a few weeks ago, catching all seven of his targets for 107 yards and a touchdown in the OT loss at home.
He’s Caleb Willams’ top target in the red zone, leading Chicago with 16 passes his way inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, catching 10 of those balls — two for TDs. Moore can also break off big plays for six points with yards after the catch (14th in YAC) and thrives against zone coverage.
The Vikings play one of the highest rates of zone in the league and could be missing top corner Stephon Gilmore, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Minnesota’s pass defense has come undone since Week 6, ranking 17th in EPA allowed per dropback. It’s also allowed 14 touchdowns to wide receivers (seventh most).
Throughout his career, Moore has excelled indoors and gets to burn it up on the fast track inside U.S. Bank Stadium. He averages more than 15 yards per reception and has scored 13 touchdowns in 28 games played in roof/dome stadiums compared to 21 TDs in 82 outdoor games.
Week 15 player projections for Moore range between 0.29 and 0.41 touchdowns. My forecast comes in around 0.35 TDs on MNF, which should have his anytime TD price around +190. You can get Moore to score at +210 at FanDuel.
Vikings anytime touchdown pick
T.J. Hockenson anytime touchdown
+210 at FanDuel
T.J. Hockenson is rounding into form after missing most of the season due to injury.
He returned to the lineup in Week 9 and has seen his snap share jump to 60%-plus the past three weeks. If he’s on the field, he’s looking for the football. Hockenson runs a route on 72.5% of snaps, which sits fifth-highest among tight ends.
Despite playing in only six games, Hockenson’s drawn seven red-zone targets from QB Sam Darnold, including four in the past two contests. However, he’s yet to score a touchdown after putting up five TDs for Minnesota in 2023.
The Vikings tight end had his best game of the year vs. Chicago in Week 12, grabbing seven of nine passes for 114 yards. The Bears give up the most yards per reception to tight ends and sit seventh in yards against from the position, along with three touchdowns.
In a funny twist, Hockenson’s anytime touchdown odds have gotten slimmer each week despite his drought. His current prop price is the shortest it’s been all season, which shows how much faith bookies have in him this week. Player models for Hockenson all come in around 0.3 touchdowns in Week 15.
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