Wild Card Weekend continues Sunday with an AFC matchup between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park.
Both teams are built for cold weather battles, and my Broncos vs. Bills anytime touchdown picks expect Sunday to be “all systems go” for both offenses.
Read on for my AFC Wild Card Sunday NFL picks for Sunday, January 12.
Broncos anytime touchdown pick
Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown
+135 at BetMGM
The weather in Orchard Park calls for a cold and slightly windy day.
If the forecast is correct, the wind won’t be much of a factor, and the light snow and cold temps won’t bother the Denver Broncos very much.
That’s good for the combination of quarterback Bo Nix and veteran wide receiver Courtland Sutton to do their thing: connect as often as possible.
Sutton has only seen fewer than seven targets once across his previous eight games and four Red Zone targets, which is good for two touchdowns across his last two.
Sutton faces a Buffalo Bills defense that’s coughed up 223 passing yards per game. They also surrendered 23 of its 28 TD receptions within 20 yards of the end zone, and I like Sutton to find paydirt.
Buffalo has surrendered 23 TD receptions in the Red Zone. Sutton is a favored target, and I’m betting Nix will find Sutton as often as possible, and the veteran wideout finds paydirt.
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Bills anytime touchdown pick
Dawson Knox anytime touchdown
+650 at BetMGM
Once upon a time, Bills tight end Dawson Knox was quarterback Josh Allen’s favorite set of hands. Knox got injured and, as a result, saw his targets decline in favor of Dalton Kincaid.
Nowadays, Knox sees roughly three targets per game. He’s also seen two of his five Red Zone targets across his last five games, and I like him as a sneaky play to receive a scoring strike.
That’s because Knox is fifth on the all-time list of tight ends with six touchdown receptions in 10 NFL playoff games, meeting a Broncos defense that might also accommodate him.
The Broncos have surrendered 16 of its 22 scoring strikes inside the 20. Allen is projected to clear his passing touchdown prop (1.5), so I like him to help his one-time favorite set of mitts continue his trek toward playoff history by scoring a touchdown.
Not intended for use in MA.
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