At one stage, this matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs looked like a battle for the No.1 seed in the AFC, but two weeks is a long time in the NFL — and a division crown isn’t even a guarantee for the Steelers after back-to-back losses.
That ensures plenty of intrigue for a Christmas Day clash, which has the feel of a low-scoring slugfest but still offers a lot of options on the anytime touchdown scorer market, especially with Patrick Mahomes trending upward after his ankle injury.
I’ve picked my two favorite anytime TD scorer props and NFL picks for a December 25 showdown with big playoff implications.
Chiefs anytime touchdown pick
Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown
+170 at BetMGM
Any suggestion that Kareem Hunt would slide quietly into the background once Isiah Pacheco was healthy has been proved definitively wrong. Hunt continues to play an important role as the Kansas City Chiefs' power back, and I like his plus odds for another score on Christmas Day.
Hunt finished with 13 touches in Saturday’s win over the Houston Texans, and he found the end zone on a three-yard rush. That’s where he’s going to have value against the Pittsburgh Steelers, as the go-to weapon to pound the ball in from inside the five-yard line.
With six touchdowns to his name this season, Hunt has made a difference in Kansas City’s 14-1 season, and he should be encouraged after seeing Pittsburgh allow 220 rushing yards to the Baltimore Ravens last weekend.
This is the Chiefs’ second game in five days, and there’s every reason to tread carefully with Pacheco. It’s an unnecessary risk to overload him before the postseason.
Hunt hasn’t been as big a factor in the passing game as I anticipated in his second stint alongside Patrick Mahomes, but that element of his game adds a little boost.
Still, it’s the running game where he’ll have his best chances of cashing this prop. Mahomes’ ankle issue surely rules out any kind of QB sneak near the goal line, so I expect Kansas City to call Hunt’s number several times, and he’s been effective at bundling his way over the line this season.
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Steelers anytime touchdown pick
Pat Freiermuth anytime touchdown
+240 at BetMGM
When it comes to the Steelers, the offense’s dependence on the deep ball has been exposed in recent weeks, and they’ve only scored a total of seven second-half points across their last two games.
I don’t have a lot of faith in Pittsburgh’s ability to efficiently run the ball against this imposing Kansas City front seven, so the pass-catchers feel like a safer pick for an anytime TD here at Acrisure Stadium.
That bodes well for Pat Freiermuth, who’s built a strong connection with Russell Wilson, and he had scored touchdowns in three straight games before a quiet day against Baltimore last time out.
George Pickens is back after missing Week 15, and that should help clear the middle of the field for Freiermuth, who’s had four or more targets in three of his past five contests.
The Chiefs defense has been miserly under the watchful eye of Steve Spagnuolo, but the Houston Texans scored a pair of touchdowns through the air on Saturday, including one for tight end Dalton Schultz.
While Wilson’s passing yards have dipped this month, he’s only thrown one pick in his last three contests and he’s piled up eight passing TDs in his past four starts.
I can see a game script where the Steelers are playing from behind and chasing a late touchdown, so Freiermuth offers real value at this price as a frequent red-zone target.
Not intended for use in MA.
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