The final Wild Card Round matchup on Sunday sees the Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what looks to be a close game with the Bucs being three-point favorites.
We’ve seen both Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield lead their teams to great wins through sheer force of will this season, but who’ll score for each team this Sunday?
Here are my Commanders vs. Buccaneers anytime touchdown picks for Sunday's game.
Commanders anytime touchdown pick
Zach Ertz anytime touchdown
+205 at Caesars
With every player on the Washington Commanders’ offense available at plus money to score a touchdown, it comes down to personal preference. Terry McLaurin is the favorite, but at almost double the odds, you can get Zach Ertz.
With a +205 price, we’re getting a great value wager on a player in good form.
Throughout the season, we’ve seen the Commanders’ offense grow and develop each week, and in that time span, we’ve seen Ertz become a larger part of the red zone offense.
Ertz leads the Commanders' offense in red zone targets with 18 targets inside the 20, compared with 14 for his closest competitor McLaurin, and they’re the only two players with double-digit targets in the red zone.
Over the first 10 weeks of the season, we saw Ertz score just once; however, in the eight weeks that followed, we saw Ertz score six times despite the team having their bye in Week 14. Those six touchdowns come across seven games, and there have only been two games in that run in which they haven’t scored.
Over the past fortnight we’ve seen Ertz get 12 targets, hauling in 11 of those and scoring three times in the process. He’s in great form, clearly has the trust of Jayden Daniels, and will fancy his chances of scoring in a game that is expected to be high-scoring with a points total of 50.5 points.
New users: Get up to $1,000 in bonus bet insurance at Caesars
Bet on the NFL Playoffs at Caesars Sportsbook, which is offering new users up to $1,000 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join, or learn more with our comprehensive Caesars sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of Caesars bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Buccaneers anytime touchdown pick
Cade Otton anytime touchdown
+220 at Caesars
At odds of -117, there’s an argument that Mike Evans could be a good value play for this game, but it’s Cade Otton who offers us the best path to big profit. The Bucs tight end is questionable to play, but given that he was a full participant in practice on Friday, it should mean that we see him on the field.
Otton suiting up would be good news for the Bucs, with the third-year TE becoming a more integral part of the team this year. He’s missed the past three games, but up until that point, he’d had a good season.
He’s found the endzone four times this season but leads the team in the targets, even ahead of Mike Evans.
Those numbers are slightly inflated thanks to the period in which the team was missing not only Evans but also Chris Godwin. Regardless of that, we’ve seen him step up when needed and manage an impressive 10.2 yards per catch.
The Commanders have had issues against tight ends this season. Despite giving up just 678 yards to the position, an average of just 39.8 yards per game, they’ve allowed eight TDs to the TEs.
There are only four teams in the NFL that have given up more touchdowns to tight ends than the Commanders. That should mean Otton has a chance to feast on Sunday, but on the off chance that he’s ruled out, it’ll be worth taking Payne Durham, who is available at a big price, too.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
