The No. 1 seed Detroit Lions host the Washington Commanders in a NFC Division Round showdown at Ford Field on Saturday, January 18.
Fireworks are expected with this game carrying the highest Over/Under total on the docket, and my top Commanders vs. Lions anytime touchdown picks have you covered for the NFC clash.
Commanders anytime touchdown pick
Jayden Daniels anytime touchdown
+140 at Caesars
It’s been five games since Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels ran one in after he scored six times through the first 13 weeks of the season. With the Detroit Lions blitzing at the second-highest rate (34.6%) during the regular season, my NFL picks believe Daniels’ athleticism and willingness to freewheel set up the rookie to return to the end zone Saturday.
He paced the league in scramble rushes (75) during the regular season and added three more against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.
Additionally, I’m expecting offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to provide his best weapon with multiple designed runs, and Daniels has shown off with the highest PFF elusive rating while ranking third in yards per carry after contact among QBs with at least 50 rushing attempts this season.
Of course, Detroit also allowed Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen to score twice in Week 15, and San Francisco 49ers QBs Brock Purdy and Joshua Dobbs both found paydirt in Week 17. Plus, the Lions surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards (454) to opposing quarterbacks and the second-highest yards per carry (6.22) during the regular season, too.
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Lions anytime touchdown pick
Sam LaPorta anytime touchdown
+135 at Caesars
The Commanders allowed eight touchdowns to opposing tight ends with a middling 73.7 catch percentage and 7.47 yards per target during the regular season, so this is a favorable matchup for Detroit sophomore Sam LaPorta to haul in a score.
LaPorta was a force down the stretch, too. He caught 24 of 32 targets for 281 yards and two touchdowns over the final four weeks, and he’s up to 17 career scores across 33 games to start his career. Detroit QB Jared Goff has also looked LaPorta’s way 18 times in the red zone over the past 10 games.
I also value LaPorta playing 94.3% of Detroit offensive snaps since returning from injury in Week 12, in addition to being targeted on a healthy 20.7% of his routes.
Make no mistake, he’s a huge part of the high-powered and dynamic Lions attack.
Not intended for use in MA.
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