The Wild Card Round is upon us, and this Sunday, we have three games, including this Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles.
This game sees two exciting offenses facing defenses ranked inside the top seven in DVOA. With the quality of defense on display, it’s going to take a special player to score, and we’re doing our best to find who scores for each team.
Here are my best Packers vs. Eagles Anytime Touchdown picks for Sunday, January 12.
Packers anytime touchdown pick
Emanuel Wilson anytime touchdown
+750 at Caesars
Picking a touchdown scorer on the Green Bay Packers' side is a tricky ask this week. Josh Jacobs is the obvious choice with 16 touchdowns in 17 games, but the running back comes with short price odds, and in truth, they’re too short to promote as any sort of value proposition.
Then there are the wide receivers, but neither Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, nor Dontayvion Wicks are prolific scorers, and the Eagles are strong against tight ends, making Tucker Kraft a poor choice.
However, there is one player available at a price that offers us value, and that’s RB2 Emanuel Wilson, who you can grab at +750. He’s only scored five touchdowns this season, but it’s key that three of those have come successively over the past three weeks.
Jacobs only got the six carries in Week 18, as the team prepared for playoffs, but in the two weeks before that, we saw the backfield shared to an extent more than we’ve seen all season.
In Weeks 16 and 17, we saw Jacobs, the lead back, get 30 carries, whereas Wilson got over half of that, with 17 carries in that time. The sophomore running back has done well with that usage, and he’s finished the regular season with an average of 4.9 yards per carry.
He isn’t the sexiest pick, and there are obviously risks attributed to selecting the second-string running back, but on a Packers team missing strong choices at plus money, it’s Wilson and the value that he offers that gives us the best selection on Matt LaFleur’s offense.
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Eagles anytime touchdown pick
A.J. Brown anytime touchdown
+120 at Caesars
Unsurprisingly, the betting to score for the Philadelphia Eagles is led by Saquon Barkley, who is coming off an incredible season. However, he, much like Jacobs above, has prohibitive odds. That leads us to look elsewhere, something that we might see Jalen Hurts doing on Sunday.
Jalen Hurts is expected to clear the concussion protocol and play on Sunday, which is great news for the Eagles, with Hurts a clear upgrade over Kenny Pickett. Hurts adds another dimension to the offense, both with his rushing and his passing, something he’ll need on Sunday.
When these teams met in Week One, we saw Saquon have a big game, get three touchdowns and over 100 rushing yards.
Since then, Barkley's had a historic season, but the Packers will be far more aware of how the Eagles are using Saquon in this offense, and we can expect them to do everything in their power to stop him in order to win the game.
That’s going to mean that we see stacked boxes and a defensive front tasked with stopping the run.
Barkley is good enough that he’ll be able to find success anyway, but if the Packers really are selling out to stop the run, then it really opens up the passing game, something that hugely benefits A.J. Brown.
It’s not been a great season for Brown, who has been vocal about his unhappiness, but down the stretch, we saw him featured more. Brown didn’t play in the final week, but in the three weeks before that, he’d scored in three back-to-back games.
Despite missing four games, he’s only one target from leading the team in red zone targets. He’s a crucial part of this offense, and if we do see the Packers stacking the box, then it’s Brown who is most likely to profit.
Not intended for use in MA.
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