The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs gets underway Saturday afternoon with an AFC Divisional battle when the Houston Texans meet the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Saturday’s forecast calls for blustery conditions, but my Texans vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown picks still expect Joe Mixon and Travis Kelce to find paydirt in this matchup with the lowest total on the board.
Read on for my AFC Divisional Round NFL picks for Saturday, January 18.
Texans anytime touchdown pick
Joe Mixon anytime touchdown
+125 at BetMGM
Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon went scoreless for four consecutive games before his late fourth-quarter touchdown in last week's AFC Wild Card victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.
Mixon scored 11 rushing touchdowns and hauled in one scoring strike this season. He’s a large reason the Texans have reached the AFC Divisional Round stage, and I like him to score a touchdown.
Mixon has become a popular red zone option for Houston. He got five touches last week against the Chargers, and 11 of his 12 total touchdowns have come within 20 yards of the end zone.
It won’t be easy.
The Kansas City Chiefs boast a top-10 rushing defense, but they did allow 11 rushing touchdowns within 20 yards.
The forecast calls for gusty winds, and if the Texans score any touchdowns, I’m betting Mixon finds paydirt.
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Chiefs anytime touchdown pick
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown
+150 at BetMGM
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has more postseason receptions (165) than any other player in NFL history, and his 19 career playoff touchdowns are second only to Hall of Famer Jerry Rice.
Despite seeing 26% of the red zone targets, the future first-ballot Hall of Famer has only three touchdowns this season, but I expect him to add to that tally on Saturday.
Kelce and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are an old hand in this playoff business. The two have combined for 56 touchdowns across 109 regular season games and 18 scoring strikes in 18 career playoff games.
Houston surrenders 1.8 touchdown receptions, which spikes to 2.2 scoring strikes allowed per away tilt. That is less than optimal for the Texans against a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes, and that is why I like Kelce to hit paydirt.
Not intended for use in MA.
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