There’s nowhere to go but up for the Arizona Cardinals. But rather than a rising phoenix, think more "turd in a toilet" floating to the surface.
Improvements have been made in Year 2 under head coach Jonathan Gannon, yet we’re still dealing with a bottom-tier team if the NFL odds have anything to say about it. Arizona is a long shot across the futures market with a season win total of 7.5 shaded heavily to the Under, and look-ahead lines have the Cardinals as underdogs in 12 outings.
A healthy Kyler Murray, rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr., and continuity across the coaching staff are all positives, but are they enough to overcome a porous defense and life in the NFC West?
I head to the desert searching for answers in my Arizona Cardinals 2024 betting preview and NFL picks.
Arizona Cardinals odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +10,000 |
| Win conference | +5,000 |
| Win division | +1,300 |
| Make playoffs | +300 |
| Over 6.5 wins | -150 |
| Under 6.5 wins | +125 |
Best futures bet: Third in NFC West (+210)
This one is worth a shot, as the Arizona Cardinals will jockey with Seattle in the NFC West basement. Look-ahead lines have the Cardinals and Seahawks each favored in five games, but I’m more optimistic about Arizona than the situation in Seattle — especially when comparing quarterbacks.
The Cardinals also get schedule edges in their two meetings with the Seahawks. They travel to Seattle in Week 12 with two weeks to prepare following a bye, then host their divisional rivals in Week 14, which will be the second of back-to-back road games and the third road stop in four weeks for the Seahawks.
Arizona Cardinals at a glance: Going from terrible to bad
The Cardinals enter 2024 in much better shape than last season. The offense carries the bulk of that promise, with a Kyler Murray-led attack featuring solid skill players behind an improving offensive line. The defense, which was worst in the NFL, is better but still really bad.
What will win bets: Run Game
The lone bright spot of 2023 was the Cardinals’ rushing attack. Arizona finished Top 10 in EPA per handoff, getting a significant boost once Murray returned under center in Week 10. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing will utilize the healthy legs of his dual-threat QB and 1,000-yard RB James Conner to keep opponents guessing on the ground.
Establishing the run opens opportunities for the passing game but also allows Arizona to control tempo and clock. That limits the amount of time the dreadful defense is exposed. The Cardinals are underdogs of +4 or higher in seven games and keeping the ball away from opposing offenses helps cover those spreads.
What will lose bets: Defense
You name it, the Cardinals' defense was bad at it in 2023. Arizona ranked 32nd in Defensive DVOA and 31st in EPA allowed per play, with foes doing damage on the ground and through the air. Although moves have been made to bolster the stop unit, they’re not enough to keep the Cardinals competitive.
We’ll see just how bad this defense is in the opening 10 weeks of action, which are littered with Top-10 offensive opponents. Arizona takes on Buffalo, the L.A. Rams, Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay, and Miami (along with Washington, the L.A. Chargers, Chicago, and the N.Y. Jets) before a Week 11 bye. Yikes.
Arizona Cardinals schedule + spot bet: Prepare for points
The Cardinals’ strength of schedule doesn’t look too imposing (rated 24th based on win%) but the first 10 games are going to be doozies, with look-ahead lines pegging Arizona as a dog in eight of those contests and getting +4 or more in five of those tilts. What catches my eye are the totals.
As mentioned, several elite scoring attacks feature in that stretch, facing a suspect Cardinals defense. Murray and the offense will have to pick up the pace in order to keep competitive. Eight of the Over/Under numbers are 46.5 points or higher. Arizona finished 10-7 O/U last season, including 7-1 O/U at home. Six of the first 10 games are inside State Farm Stadium.
The post-bye sked is much easier in terms of opposition with other basement dwellers on deck, like Seattle (twice), New England, Minnesota, and Carolina. However, four of the final seven contests come on the road and Arizona was 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS as a visitor in Gannon’s first season.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | @ Buffalo |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs. Los Angeles (R) |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | vs. Detroit |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs. Washington |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | @ San Francisco |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | @ Green Bay |
| 7 | Monday, October 21 | vs. Los Angeles (C) |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ Miami |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | vs. Chicago |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. New York (J) |
| 11 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | @ Seattle |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | @ Minnesota |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | vs. Seattle |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | vs. New England |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | @ Carolina |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | @ Los Angeles (R) |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs. San Francisco |
Spot bet: Week 8 @ Miami (+6, 48.5)
The Cardinals come to South Beach on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football in Week 7. Arizona has a quick turnaround to prep for the Dolphins’ offense and cross the country for this October 27 afternoon kickoff.
This will be the Cards’ third road game in four weeks, and part of a nasty gauntlet that sees them at San Francisco in Week 5, at Green Bay in Week 6, and hosting the L.A. Chargers for MNF in Week 7.
Kyler's Call of Duty
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +5,000 |
| To win CPOY | +2,500 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +3,500 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +5,000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 21.5 passing TD | +110 |
| Under 21.5 passing TD | -135 |
| 25+ passing TD | +255 |
| 30+ passing TD | +1,300 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 3,400.5 passing yards | -110 |
| Under 3,400.5 passing yards | -110 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | +380 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +3,500 |
Best prop: Over 3,400.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Murray comes into camp healthy after working his way back from an ACL in the middle of the season in 2023. He has some great weapons around him too, with rookie sensation Marvin Harrison Jr. expected to be an instant WR1 and Trey McBride budding as an elite TE.
While OC Drew Petzing wants to anchor this offense in the run, Arizona may not get the chance to. With high-octane offenses showing up on the schedule, Murray will be throwing the ball much more than expected.
Player projections range from 3,600 to 4,000 passing yards for the former Heisman winner. He’ll get to pad his passing numbers against softer defenses in the second half of the season as well.
Arizona Cardinals trend: Divisional Home Games
One year under Jonathan Gannon doesn’t present much in the way of actionable info, but the Cardinals’ coach did continue to suck against NFC West opponents in 2023. Arizona finished 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS.
Protecting home turf in those divisional matchups has been a problem for this team in recent seasons, boasting a 2-12 SU record and 4-10 ATS count in divisional home games since 2019. That includes last season’s 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS clips when welcoming NFC West foes into State Farm Stadium.
Arizona Cardinals’ divisional home games
- Week 2 vs. L.A. Rams (+2.5, 48.5)
- Week 14 vs. Seattle (-1, 46)
- Week 18 vs. San Francisco (+4, 43)
Not intended for use in MA.
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