The Atlanta Falcons want to win now and that shows in the Brinks truck they backed up for new quarterback Kirk Cousins.
The veteran passer instantly vaults the Dirty Birds to the top of the NFC South (-120 to win division) and makes them a -190 favorite to qualify for the playoffs. But that aggressive move also stirs memories of a similar swap a couple years ago.
Former Atlanta QB Matt Ryan made the Indianapolis Colts a contender in 2021, bringing a proven passer to a promising roster on the verge of greatness. Sound familiar? Indy’s win total was 9.5 with the Over juiced heavily — just like the 2024 Falcons — and things did not go according to plan.
Atlanta’s expectations are sky-high in the eyes of the betting markets, as shown above. Look-ahead lines have it as a favorite in 13 games, due in part to a baby-soft schedule that ranks weakest in the league. That puts Atlanta just behind NFC powers like San Francisco, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Dallas.
Do the Falcons measure up? I find out in my Atlanta Falcons 2024 NFL betting preview and NFL picks.
Atlanta Falcons odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +3000 |
| Win conference | +1300 |
| Win division | -120 |
| Make playoffs | -190 |
| Over 9.5 wins | -135 |
| Under 9.5 wins | +115 |
Best futures bet: Second in NFC South (+175)
To be honest with you, I hate all the Atlanta Falcons’ futures odds. This bet I hate a little less. There are four outcomes for Kirk Cousins’ first year in Georgia and three of them have Atlanta missing out on the division crown.
First, Cousins is great and the Falcons fly to the NFC South title. Second, he’s so-so and Atlanta is in a dog fight with the Bucs. Third, he’s dog water and the Falcons fumble the bag. And fourth, his aching Achilles and aging bones can’t hold up and Atlanta is back where it was last year.
Atlanta Falcons at a glance: Expectations too tall in ATL
Cousins is a good quarterback but he’s coming off a bad injury — and some training camp ailments — while trying to jell with a new group of receivers. You have two fresh-faced coordinators who have never called a pro game, including a new defensive playbook for a stop unit many rank near the bottom of the NFL. Besides Bijan Robinson, the Falcons feel more sizzle than steak.
What will win bets: Run game
Robinson and Tyler Allgeier will make life easy on Cousins, with defenses having to stack the box against one of the best run-block offensive lines in the business. New OC Zac Robinson will create plenty of rushing lanes with his three-WR spread offense, allowing Atlanta to control pace and clock.
Thirteen of the Falcons’ games come versus defenses rated in the back half of the league in run success rate allowed in 2023, including 11 of those foes rated 20th or worse in that advanced metric.
What will lose bets: Expectations
I could pick apart the Falcons’ defense in this section, but Raheem Morris could lift this group up. Instead, it’s the unrealistic market perceptions that will burn ATL backers most weeks. Sure, the schedule is a warm hug from grandma on Xmas morning, but the growing spreads will reflect that as the season goes on.
Before a single snap is played, Atlanta is already a point spread fave in 13 games, including being tabbed as a road favorite in six of its eight away games. Under Arthur Smith, the team was 13-9 SU as a favorite but just 8-14 ATS when giving points.
Atlanta Falcons schedule + spot bet: Furious first five
The Falcons play four of the first five games inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium but with a new OC, new DC, new head coach, and new QB, friendly fans can only do so much.
Week 1 sees the Steelers with plenty of inside info from new OC Arthur Smith, Week 2 sends Atlanta to Philadelphia on MNF, the champion Chiefs show up in Week 3 for SNF, followed by divisional home games with New Orleans and Tampa Bay — the latter coming on a short week for TNF.
The back half of the schedule may not pack the same punch in terms of competition but the Falcons find themselves on the road in five of their final eight games (with a bye in Week 12). Atlanta went 8-17 SU and 11-13-1 ATS as a visitor under Smith. Can the new regime do better?
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | vs. Pittsburgh |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Philadelphia |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | vs. Kansas City |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs. New Orleans |
| 5 | Thursday, October 3 | vs. Tampa Bay |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | @ Carolina |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | vs. Seattle |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ Tampa Bay |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | vs. Dallas |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | @ New Orleans |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | @ Denver |
| 12 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | vs. Los Angeles (C) |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | @ Minnesota |
| 15 | Monday, December 16 | @ Las Vegas |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs. New York (G) |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | @ Washington |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs. Carolina |
Spot bet: Week 11 at Denver (-3, 44.5)
One of those contests in which Atlanta is giving points on the road is at Denver in Week 11. This trip up the mountain is the second of back-to-back road games and third road outing in four weeks.
Not only do the Falcons fight in the thin energy-sapping air of Mile High but there’s a potential look-ahead spot to a bye in Week 12 — especially if things aren’t going over smoothly in 2024.
No, Kirk. I Don’t Like That
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +3500 |
| To win CPOY | +500 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +1500 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +1400 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 27.5 passing TD | +100 |
| Under 27.5 passing TD | -120 |
| 30+ passing TD | +160 |
| 35+ passing TD | +700 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 3,900.5 passing yards | -115 |
| Under 3,900.5 passing yards | -115 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | +110 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +800 |
Best prop: Kirk Cousins Under 27.5 TD passes (-120)
Cousins is working his way back from an Achilles tear that ended his 2023 and has also been slowed in camp by an ankle injury. He’s not going to get any preseason reps (despite asking), which could slow the growth of this passing game.
And speaking of which, Drake London is no Justin Jefferson. And TE Kyle Pitts… well, just ask anyone playing dynasty league fantasy football. Cousins’ pass protection isn’t great and Robinson will have no choice but to lean into the ground game, notably inside the red zone.
Player projections call for as few as 25 passing touchdowns from Cousins, who also has to stay healthy to threaten this total.
Atlanta Falcons trend: Home Unders
The franchise’s top-to-bottom sweep makes connecting the dots between this year’s Falcons and Arthur Smith’s forgettable tenure difficult. One trend that bettors can keep an eye on — with a defense-first head coach at the wheel — is Unders in Atlanta’s home games.
From 2021 to 2023, the Falcons fell below the closing total to the tune of a 9-15 Over/Under count (62.5% Unders), including a 3-5 O/U tally at home in 2023. And when those home games come against non-divisional opponents, that O/U mark slides to 4-11 O/U.
Atlanta Falcons’ non-divisional home games
- Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh (43)
- Week 3 vs. Kansas City (49)
- Week 7 vs. Seattle (48)
- Week 9 vs. Dallas (48)
- Week 13 vs. L.A. Chargers (47.5)
- Week 16 vs. N.Y, Giants (44.5)
Not intended for use in MA.
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