The Baltimore Ravens left football bettors with a bad taste in their mouths last season.
After a palatable 2023 run pumped out a 12-6 ATS record, Baltimore belly-flopped in the AFC title game, mustering only 10 points in that loss to the soon-to-be champion Chiefs. It was an abrupt end for a team that ranked Top 6 in EPA per play and DVOA on both sides of the ball.
The Ravens are once again projected to finish near the top of the league in those all-holy analytics in 2024, and the NFL odds reflect that forecast. Baltimore is an AFC futures darling and is a favorite in 14 of its look-ahead lines despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the land. That rough road keeps eight of those 17 spreads within a field goal (-3 to +3).
Should Baltimore bettors go back for seconds at the sportsbooks in 2024 or has the Ravens’ run spoiled? Find out in my NFL picks and Baltimore Ravens 2024 NFL betting preview.
Baltimore Ravens odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1000 |
| Win conference | +550 |
| Win division | +145 |
| Make playoffs | -260 |
| Over 10.5 wins | -120 |
| Under 10.5 wins | +100 |
Best futures bet: Under 3.5 Divisional Wins (-120)
Life in the AFC North is a MF’er. As great as the Baltimore Ravens have been under long-standing head coach John Harbaugh, they’re just 32-28 SU versus divisional foes over the past 10 seasons. That includes a 3-3 SU count inside the AFC North last year when Baltimore was far stronger than those rivals.
Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh are improved in 2024 while the Ravens run the risk of a drop-off following a historically great season — especially on defense — in 2023. Baltimore is a favorite in all but one AFC North game (+1.5 @ Cincinnati), going 16-24-1 ATS in that role since 2014.
Baltimore Ravens at a glance: Best of both worlds
Even with coordinator Mike Macdonald gonzo, the Baltimore defense is expected to stay strong. It will be tough to eclipse last year’s 60 sacks and 31 takeaways, especially considering the competition. The offense is awesome and adds a red-zone wrinkle in RB Derrick Henry.
What will win bets: Run game
I’ve been doing these NFL betting breakdowns for the past few years and I’m pretty sure the Ravens’ run game has been featured in this spot every season. It’s even more impactful in 2024, with Baltimore bowling over opponents with a healthy dose of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
There are questions about the Raven’s run blocking, after a shake-up on the offensive line, but offensive coordinator Todd Monken knows where his bread is buttered. The ground-and-pound helps Lamar pass, gives the defense downtime, and kills the clock with a second-half lead.
What will lose bets: Defensive Downtick
This is in no way calling the Baltimore defense a weakness. This is me saying living up to 2023’s stop unit is almost impossible, and those standards are what the Ravens’ 2024 betting market is based on. The architect and top assistants for that stop unit are elsewhere, leaving new DC Zach Orr with a tall order.
First off, 60 sacks is a very high bar. Baltimore isn’t that aggressive in terms of blitz or pressure rate, instead utilizing Macdonald’s sneaky schemes to disguise pressure and coverage. The Ravens also topped the NFL in takeaways with 31 thanks to those schemes, and it’s tough to account for those game-changing plays season-to-season.
Baltimore Ravens schedule + spot bet: Hit the ground running
Baltimore’s slate ranks Top 4 in SOS based on both 2023 win percentage and 2024 projected wins. Eight of its 17 games come against playoff qualifiers and that doesn’t include four AFC North grudge matches with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.
The Ravens are on their heels out of the gate, starting at Kansas City in Week 1 and continuing at Dallas in Week 3, vs. Buffalo in Week 4, and at Cincinnati in Week 5. Look-ahead lines have Baltimore pegged as a point spread pup only three times and they all fall within this opening stretch.
Under Harbaugh, Baltimore is one of the best underdog bets in NFL history. The Ravens are 55-34-6 ATS when getting points (62%) since 2008, including 19-3-2 ATS (83%) as a dog since Jackson showed up in 2018.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thursday, September 5 | @ Kansas City |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs Las Vegas |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ Dallas |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs Buffalo |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | @ Cincinnati |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | vs Washington |
| 7 | Monday, October 21 | @ Tampa Bay |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ Cleveland |
| 9 | Sunday, November 4 | vs Denver |
| 10 | Thursday, November 7 | vs. Cincinnati |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | @ Pittsburgh |
| 12 | Monday, November 25 | @ Los Angeles (C) |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | vs Philadelphia |
| 14 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ New York (G) |
| 16 | Saturday, December 21 | vs Pittsburgh |
| 17 | Wednesday, December 25 | @ Houston |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs Cleveland |
Spot bet: Week 8 @ Cleveland (-1, 45.5)
Baltimore is a short road favorite when visiting the rival Browns in late October. With Halloween just around the corner, this is a scary spot for the Ravens.
Baltimore will be playing the second of back-to-back road games in Week 8 and doing so on a short week after visiting Tampa Bay for Monday Night Football in Week 7.
This trip to Ohio is also the team’s third road game in four weeks, with Baltimore at Cincinnati in Week 5. The Ravens ran into a similar three-in-four jam last season, getting punked 17-10 at Pittsburgh as 4.5-point road chalk in Week 5.
Lamar’s a little loose
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +1500 |
| To win OPOY | +4500 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +2800 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +6500 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 22.5 passing TD | -110 |
| Under 22.5 passing TD | -110 |
| 25+ passing TD | +170 |
| 30+ passing TD | +850 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 3,250.5 passing yards | -110 |
| Under 3,250.5 passing yards | -110 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | +600 |
| Over 675.5 rushing yards | -110 |
| Under 675.5 rushing yards | -110 |
Best prop: Over 7.5 interceptions (+100)
Jackson flourished in Year 1 of Todd Monken’s playbook, earning his second MVP honor. He attempted a career-high 457 passes and was picked off only seven times. That low interception count had a lot to do with the Ravens' offense, most notably in second halves. Baltimore wasn’t often playing from behind and Lamar was never pushed into passing, with the Ravens throwing the ball a league-low 50.08% rate.
The 2024 schedule brings tougher challenges (eight spreads within a field goal), with a number of solid pass defenses on the calendar as well as ball-hawking secondaries like Dallas, N.Y. Giants, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo (all of which record 16-plus INTs in 2023).
Player projections point to a sizeable uptick in INTs from Jackson, with models predicting close to 10 interceptions in 2024. At EVEN money, we’ll bet the reigning MVP to toss eight or more picks.
Baltimore Ravens trend: Bad Big Favorites
As one of the best two-way teams in the NFL in recent seasons, Baltimore is no stranger to piles of chalk.
The Ravens have handed over six or more points 16 times over the past three years and while they’re 12-4 SU in those games, they’ve gone just 4-12 ATS as lofty faves. That includes a 2-4 ATS count as a favorite of -6 or higher in 2023.
This year’s look-ahead lines have Baltimore giving six or more points in five games in 2024.
Baltimore Ravens’ biggest spreads
- Week 2 vs. Las Vegas (-7.5)
- Week 6 vs. Washington (-8.5)
- Week 9 vs. Denver (-10.5)
- Week 15 @ N.Y. Giants (-6.5)
- Week 16 vs. Pittsburgh (-6)
Not intended for use in MA.
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