Da Bears finished with the worst record in football in 2022 at 3-14. That makes their path to be the most improved team in football much easier than other teams heading into the 2023 season.
DraftKings currently has NFL odds for the most improved team available and the criteria for that (which is explained more in the bet slip) is the team with the biggest increase in regular season wins from the previous season.
With a current win total of 7.5 for this season, it’s easy to see why the Chicago Bears odds have them as the betting favorite at +210. However, a lot has to go right for the Bears to flirt with a five-win — or even a four-win — improvement from a season ago.
NFL most improved team odds 2023
| Team | 2022 Record |  |
|---|---|---|
 Chicago Bears |
3-14 | +210 |
 Denver Broncos |
5-12 | +425 |
 Houston Texans |
3-13-1 | +700 |
 Indianapolis Colts |
4-12-1 | +800 |
 New Orleans Saints |
7-10 | +850 |
 New York Jets |
7-10 | +1,100 |
 Cleveland Browns |
7-10 | +1,400 |
 Carolina Panthers |
7-10 | +1,800 |
 Atlanta Falcons |
7-10 | +1,800 |
 Jacksonville Jaguars |
9-8 | +2,200 |
Odds as of July 26, 2023
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The case against the Bears
First, Justin Fields needs to be healthy for most of this season. Although there are upgrades on the offensive line and at wide receiver, expecting Fields to make it through a full season, when he’s running 10 to 15 times a game, is tough. He wore down late last season and even if the offense scales back the rushing opportunities, it will be taking away its most explosive aspect — because it’s certainly not the passing game.
Fields ranked dead last in aggressiveness percentage, meaning he threw the lowest percentage of his passes into tight coverage. He ranked 36th of 41 in Pro Football Focus pass grade and 37th in time to throw, per NFL Next Gen Stats. This is a QB who doesn’t attempt (or make) throws into tight coverage while also being slower to get rid of the ball. Just adding star wideout DJ Moore isn’t going to make Fields a better passer and considering the shape of this defense, just getting seven wins could be a struggle.
Chicago lost five games by 20 or more points in 2022 and had the worst defense in terms of EPA play. Yes, it unloaded some pieces during the season in Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn, but it's also beginning the year with five new starters on defense, including a rookie corner in Tyrique Stevenson, who was the eighth CB drafted this year.
The Bears also had one of the worst pass rushes in 2022 and ranked dead last with 1.2 sacks per game. They didn’t address this issue in the offseason and the secondary is still problematic after allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt last season — the worst mark in football.
Strength of schedule is highly priced into NFL win totals odds, so just because we know the Bears have an easier schedule this season doesn’t mean we’re getting info that isn’t readily available or not priced in. As Clevta (@Clevta) explained in his team preview on Twitter, “This 7.5-win total is already factoring positive close game regression, an easier schedule, and assuming Fields’ progression.”
I’ll have to agree with him in that a lot can go wrong that could sink Chicago's season. Basically, more has to go right for a 7/8-win season versus a year where it wins six or fewer games.
"Including only teams who won at least three games in the previous season, Chicago is one of six teams since 2000 with an O/U win total of 4.5 wins more than they won the prior year,” according to Clevta. He adds that most of those win totals were because of major QB injuries the season prior.
I think if bettors put the Bears closer to a 7-win team, they can find better value in this market.
Our best bet for most improved team
Looking at teams that could potentially win 4+ games over last year, the Denver Broncos odds (+425) are intriguing following their coaching change and Sean Payton straightening out Russell Wilson. They also have a solid defense that can win games, and a win total of 8.5 — following a 5-12 season a year ago, Denver finishing 9-8 (vs. the Bears at 6-11) is possible, but I’d prefer not to hook my wagon to Russ this season.
Looking at another angle, the NFC South is wide open this year and one of those teams that finished 7-10 SU in 2022 could finish plus-3 or even plus-4 wins if they run the division.
The difference between the New Orleans Saints odds at +850 and Atlanta Falcons odds (+1,800) seems excessive considering they finished with identical 7-10 records last year and both teams are currently hovering close to 9 total wins (implied) on their season win total.
Some sharp money has already hit the Falcons’ team win total Over 8.5 this summer and Atlanta has a dream schedule to begin its first 10 games. The Simple Handicap podcast pointed out in June that Atlanta will begin the season facing a rookie QB (Bryce Young), a first-time starter (Jordan Love), Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, another rookie (CJ Stroud), another first-time starter (Sam Howell), Baker Mayfield (or Kyle Trask), Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, and an unknown at QB in Arizona for Week 10.
Considering that stretch, an 11-6 record isn’t unimaginable in a weak division for an Atlanta team that has great skill players, upgraded its defense, and has a coach that has back-to-back 7-win seasons already.
If you’re betting on DraftKings’ most improved team in 2023, look past the betting favorite and key in on the Falcons at a healthy 18/1. There should not be a 50% difference in implied probability between the Saints and Falcons in this market.
