The teams have four wins each as the Chicago Bears head to State Farm Stadium to take on the Arizona Cardinals.
Arizona might be on a two-game winning streak, but our Bears vs. Cardinals predictions expect Chicago to win on the moneyline despite being minor underdogs.
Find out more in my NFL picks for today's 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS.
Bears vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Bears moneyline (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Chicago Bears sit rock bottom of the NFC North and now face a trip to play the Arizona Cardinals who sit at the top of their division, and a team that is on a two-game winning streak. Despite their vastly different divisional positions, the reality is that these teams are far closer than it would seem. Both have four wins and have been minor favorites since the lines opened for the game.
The Bears are bottom of the division, but just two wins off the top in a truly stacked NFC North, in which the other three teams are arguably Super Bowl contenders. Meanwhile, the NFC West might have the Cardinals top, but they’re tied with both the Niners and Seahawks and just one win clear of the Rams, who occupy the bottom spot. The Cardinals might be favorites now, but I’ll be taking the Bears to win outright.
The Cardinals come into this with a negative point differential despite topping their division. There’s a large gulf between the 178 they’ve scored and the 205 they’ve allowed.
State Farm Stadium hasn’t become a fortress this year, and they’re 2-2 on home soil. The offense is good, but they’re not among the league’s best. They’re averaging 22.3 points per game, below even the Bears, who sit on 23.3. In terms of offensive DVOA, they’re in the top half of teams in the NFL but only just, ranking 13th, although that’s a full 12 spots higher than the Bears.
It's been a tricky start to the season for Caleb Williams, with the ups and downs you’d expect for a rookie quarterback, even if he was drafted first overall back in April. Last week’s loss to the Commanders saw Williams put in his worst performance since the opening game of the season, throwing for just 131 yards. Before the bye, he’d been really showing signs of improvement. The three previous games had seen him go from one passing touchdown to two and then to four, all with a QB rating over 100 and throwing just one interception.
He's got the talent to excel in this league, and the Cardinals’ defense will give him the platform to do it.
The Cardinals have the seventh-worst record against the pass, giving up 235.6 yards through the air each game. Even if Williams isn’t at his best, they can get the job done on the ground, with the team also ranked seventh-last against the run. This defense isn’t able to take away anything particularly well and is ranked 26th in DVOA for a reason: they are flat-out bad.
The Chicago defense will be the difference on Sunday. While the Bears aren’t electric on offense, they are solid defensively; 11th against the pass and 14th against the run. They are a capable unit that will keep the Bears in the game long enough for their offense to take advantage of the Cardinals’ soft underbelly.
Bears vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Bears moneyline
Kyler Murray Under 214.5 passing yards
D’Andre Swift anytime touchdown
In addition to our best bet for Bears vs. Cardinals, we’re also going to back Kyler Murray to throw Under 214.5 passing yards. He’s only exceeded that number twice all season and has averaged 204.7 yards per game. This Bears' defense is strong and holding their opposition to 199 passing yards per game.
The final leg is for D’Andre Swift to score. He’s scored four touchdowns all season but they’ve come in each of the past four games. He’s been getting high volume in that spell, with between 16 and 21 carries in each game. If he continues that, he has a great chance to score again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bears vs Cardinals odds
Bears vs Cardinals live odds
Bears vs Cardinals opening odds
- Spread: Chicago +1.5 (-110) | Arizona -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Chicago +105 | Arizona -125
- Over/Under: Over 45 (-110) | Under 45 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Bears vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Bears are 5-2 against the spread.
- The Cardinals are 5-3 against the spread.
- The Over has landed three of the Bears' past four.
- The Bears won 27-16 when these teams met in December of last year.
Bears vs Cardinals betting trend to know
The Bears have only allowed 20+ points once this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Cardinals.
Bears vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-3-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Bears vs Cardinals latest injuries
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