It’s been a surprising start to the NFL season for both the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Chargers. Surprisingly bad.
Los Angeles was expected to contend in the AFC but brings a 2-4 SU mark into Sunday Night Football when it hosts the 2-5 Bears, who were projected by many to take multiple steps forward.
Chicago is without dynamic quarterback Justin Fields, leaving undrafted rookie backup Tyson Bagent to play under center in his first career road game. That’s a big reason why the NFL odds have the Chargers laying as many as nine points at SoFi Stadium tonight.
I dig into the SNF odds for this prime-time non-conference NFL Week 8 odds contest and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Bears vs. Chargers on October 29.
Make sure to also check out our SNF prop picks and Justin Herbert spotlight picks before placing your bets!
Bears vs Chargers odds
Bears vs Chargers predictions
Justin Fields or not, D.J. Moore is getting his.
The Chicago Bears’ big offseason addition proved it doesn’t matter who’s throwing him the ball, after reeling in eight of nine targets for 54 yards versus Las Vegas in Week 7.
Moore just surpassed his yardage prop (depending on when you bet it, was as low as 53.5 O/U) and faces an Over/Under of 58.5 receiving yards on Sunday night. Tyson Bagent has leaned heavily into his top target during his time in relief of the injured Fields.
Bagent targeted Moore with six of his 14 throws when Fields went down in Week 6 and threw to him nine times on 29 pass attempts in the win over the Raiders last Sunday. While Moore’s yardage output wasn’t huge, he's in a much better spot for big gains in Week 8.
Las Vegas’ defense played a deep shell and protected against bigger plays from developing while running a lot of zone underneath. That allowed Moore just 6.75 yards per catch in Week 7. However, the Los Angeles Chargers enter this matchup as one of the worst passing defenses in the land, giving up an NFL-high 8.1 yards per attempt.
Moore is a dynamic receiver who can burn coverage downfield or break off big gains after the catch on shorter targets. He’s currently third in YAC among all NFL receivers and faces an L.A. stop unit giving up the fifth most yards after the catch.
Moore's been able to make lemonade out of lemons during his entire career, including last season in Carolina when he caught passes from Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walkers, and Sam Darnold (funny enough all might be starting QBs in Week 8).
He and Bagent have a growing chemistry on the field and in the locker room, with Moore building up the Bears’ backup QB in private and in front of the cameras. Chicago’s offense was very conservative versus Las Vegas, with shorter passes and plenty of runs, but we could see this combo connect on deeper strikes as Bagent gets more comfortable under center.
"We’re always going to look to stretch vertically and horizontally in the passing game," head coach Matt Eberflus told reporters. "That’s always something that we look at. Really you look at the defense that you’re playing. If they give you those opportunities vertically, you’re going to take those."
Player projections for Week 8 have Moore taking more than his share of vertical yardage, with all major models on the other side of 60.5 yards receiving. His projections range from 62 yards to as high as 82, with my number setting in at 72 yards receiving from the six-year pro out of Maryland.
Something extra to keep in mind with this Moore prop bet is that this game is being played on the fast indoor track at SoFi Stadium.
For his pro career, Moore has played in only 20 games inside a dome/retractable roof stadium but averages more than 71 yards in those outings with an average of 18 yards per reception. Outdoors, his production sinks to 66 yards per game and only 13.5 yards per catch.
My best bet: D.J. Moore Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Bears vs Chargers same-game parlay
DJ Moore Over 60.5 receiving yards
Justin Herbert Over 9.5 rushing yards
Tyson Bagent Over 11.5 rushing yards
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Moore will shred a weak Chargers pass defense as the Bears offense opens up the playbook a bit more for Bagent.
Justin Herbert has had to scramble a lot more this season, picking up 80 yards on 28 carries. He’s projected to have as many as 20 yards on the ground.
Bagent broke away for 24 yards on three runs in his first start last weekend. He’ll likely have a few plays fall apart and have to tuck and run.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bears vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line for this Sunday Night Football contest was at Los Angeles -9.5 before the Bears beat the Raiders with backup Tyson Bagent and the Bolts fell to the rival Chiefs last Sunday.
The official Week 8 opener hit the board as low as Chargers -8 with some markets as high as -9 and that’s logically settled into a consensus spread of Los Angeles -8.5 at most sportsbooks. As of Thursday, this spread seems to be trending back toward -9. According to Covers Consensus, 57% of picks are backing the home team.
Heading into 2023, questioning if the Bolts had the offensive firepower to cover this lofty spread would seem like a no-brainer. But L.A. and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore just aren’t living up to the offseason hype around this attack.
The Chargers have put forth scores of 24, 17, and 17 in the past three outings and rank 17th in EPA per play since Week 4 after sitting No. 5 in this advanced metric through the first three weeks of the season.
Injuries have played a role in slowing down the L.A. attack, as have some stronger defensive opponents, but QB Justin Herbert is drawing his share of criticisms. Herbert has completed just 57.14% of his throws the past three games with four touchdowns to four interceptions, accounting for an abysmal passer rating of just 75.9 in that span – fourth worst in the NFL.
The Bears defense isn’t as tough as the Chiefs or Cowboys, nor does it protect against the deep ball like the Raiders. However, Chicago’s secondary is getting bodies back and has allowed only 5.7 yards per pass attempt over the last three games, ranking 14th in EPA allowed per dropback in that span versus 31st in the opening four games of the schedule.
The Chargers defense could take notes. Los Angeles continues to get gashed for massive gains through the air, sitting 30th in EPA allowed per dropback and allowing an NFL-high 8.1 yards per pass attempt to rival QBs.
Chicago’s QB situation may not be able to take full advantage of that soft secondary, given Justin Fields is out and rookie backup Tyson Bagent is under center. He was sound in his first career start, connecting on 21 of 29 passes in a very conservative offense that amassed just 162 yards passing versus Las Vegas.
The opening Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football reflected those QB questions, with a number of 44 points. That has since jumped as many as 2.5 points to 46.5 as of Thursday – one of the rare totals in recent weeks to draw Over money.
According to Covers Consensus, 55% of picks are pushing for the Over. The Bolts enter Week 8 with a 2-4 O/U record and have gone Under in three straight games. Chicago is 6-1 O/U in 2023, with poor defense the reason for higher scores in the first three games and a rejuvenated offense showing up in the last four outings.
Bears vs Chargers betting trend to know
The Chargers are 11-16-1 Over/Under (59% Under) in non-conference games since moving to Los Angeles in 2017. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Chargers.
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Bears vs Chargers game info
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, October 29, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | Chargers -9, 44 O/U |
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