The Chicago Bears have turned in another losing season and will close out 2024 by traveling to take on a Green Bay Packers side simply looking to improve their playoff seeding
Regardless of how this game or the seeding plays out, my Bears vs. Packers predictions break down why the Under on Jordan Love's passing yards is the best bet on the board for Sunday, January 5.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, with the game airing on FOX.
Bears vs Packers prediction
Bears vs Packers moneyline & spread prediction
The Bears season has completely fallen apart ever since the infamous Hail Mary in Week 8 against the Commanders. They have rattled off ten straight losses, and have yet to win a road game this year.
They have scored 20 or fewer points in all but one of those games, and they have given up 20 or more in all but three. The one lone bright spot was the understated performance of Caleb Williams through the first half of that stretch, but the first-overall pick has now gone under 200 yards in three of the last four.
Green Bay has relied on their rushing attack this year and is fifth in the league in yards per game, sixth in attempts, and fourth in rush offense DVOA. That doesn't bode well for a Bears defense that ranks 27th in yards allowed despite being just 20th in attempts allowed. That speaks to why Chicago is the third-worst team by rush defense DVOA.
The Packers should be able to jump out to an early lead and build upon it through the ground, covering this double-digit number.
Bears vs Packers total prediction
The faith in the Over on this total largely relies on the Bears' porous defense. Chicago has played in games with a combined score above Sunday's total of 41 in five of the last six, and they've allowed 34 points on average in their last three.
Green Bay has scored less than 30 just once since their last matchup with Chicago in Week 11, and that was last week's 25-point performance against Brian Flores' much more talented defense.
Plus, if the reserves come in for Green Bay later in the game, they should still be able to generate enough offense to keep the scoring flowing. Malik Willis in particular has demonstrated the ability to command the offense when called upon, whether it be in spot starts or in late-game relief.
Take the Over 41 on Sunday.
My best bet
Jordan Love Under 222.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Jordan Love has not been relied on heavily lately. In his last seven games, he has not once attempted more than 30 passes and has only once completed more than 20 passes.
In his last four games alone, he has gone over Sunday's total of 222.5 yards just once, and Sunday's game heavily favors a run-heavy script.
He completed just 13 of 17 passes in the previous Week 11 matchup but tallied 261 passing yards largely due to a 60-yard completion — his fourth-longest on the season. Long, explosive plays may also be less likely this week, with Christian Watson officially out for Week 18.
Love's yards per pass attempt has been a single-digit figure in three straight games now, with it hitting a season-low 6.17 last week in what was a competitive game with the Vikings.
If the Green Bay Packers are unwilling to throw deep and plan to rely on the run, then 222.5 yards should be well above expectations.
Bears vs Packers same-game parlay
Packers -10
De'Andre Swift Over 12.5 receiving yards
Caleb Williams Over 22.5 rushing yards
D'Andre Swift has eclipsed 12.5 receiving yards in five of his last seven games, and the Bears running back continues to control the backfield, never once dipping below a 50% snap share on the year and posting a 66%+ share in each of the last five weeks.
We highlighted Caleb Williams' lack of passing production as of late, but to his credit, he has been a proficient runner to make up for it. Williams ranks seventh in quarterback rush yards this year with 479, successfully cruising past this O/U off 22.5 in six consecutive starts.
The previous matchup against Green Bay saw the first overall pick scamper nine times for 70 yards. Williams should find even higher efficiency this time around, especially if Green Bay eventually pulls its starters.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Bears vs Packers odds
Bears vs Packers live odds
Bears vs Packers opening odds
- Spread: Chicago +9 | Green Bay -9
- Moneyline: Chicago +340 | Green Bay -450
- Over/Under: Over 40 | Under 40
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Bears vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Green Bay is 9-7 against the spread this year, which is good for just above league average.
- The Bears, despite their record, have gone an even 7-7-2 ATS.
- Green Bay has slightly favored the Under at 8-7-1, but Chicago has gone a second-best 10-6 to the Under this year.
- According to Covers Consensus, 70% of spread picks are laying the points with Green Bay, while 61% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Bears vs Packers betting trend to know
The Packers are 4-2 ATS as home favorites this year. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Packers.
Bears vs Packers game info
| Location: | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-5, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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