The Monday following a major holiday like Thanksgiving can sometimes be dicey. Still, we have a great way to end the Week 12 odds with a solid NFC North matchup between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Our Week 12 matchup has the Vikings as -3.0 favorites to defeat the Bears. Meanwhile, MNF odds hung a 44-point total on the board, suggesting a high-scoring affair.
Let’s shake the post-Thanksgiving return to work blahs with my free NFL picks in the player prop market for the Bears vs. Vikings on Monday, November 27.
Be sure to also check out our Bears vs. Vikings picks along with our favorite Justin Fields prop bets.
Bears vs Vikings MNF props
- Dobbs Over 21.5 pass completions (-115 at DraftKings)
- Dobbs Over 1.5 passing TDs (+125 at bet365)
- Hockenson Over 0.5 TDs (+175 at Caesars)
Picks made on November 27 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Bears vs Vikings MNF props
Prop bet #1: Dobble dobble
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs has breathed life into a group that was essentially written off after losing starting quarterback Kirk Cousins to a season-ending Achilles tear.
Dobbs doesn’t have the sexiest stats, but he’s done enough to keep Minnesota in games, and the Vikings are 1-1-0 with him under center. The affable journeyman signal caller may get additional help in exceeding the DraftKings prop number if All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson returns from a four-game absence.
Dobbs offers us plenty of reasons to have a big night with or without Jefferson — he’ll want to play big with reserve QB Nick Mullins returning to the active list. Dobbs has plenty of weapons to exceed 21.5 completions, and the Chicago Bears passing defense has the 27th-worst allowed completion rate in the NFL.
The game script may call for Minnesota to rush the football more often than usual, but as bad as the Bears' opposing completion has been, it balloons from their 68% season average to nearly 73% away from Soldier Field, and I expect Dobbs and the Vikings to take advantage of this.
Dobbs isn’t Joe Montana 2.0, but he is serviceable. He’s completed 20+ in each of his three appearances with Minnesota, and before that, he exceeded this prop number twice with Arizona. Still, his 60% completion rate with the Vikings and 63.5% seasonal rate gives this prop a chance.
Finally, I love Joshua Dobbs odds in this matchup. He’s becoming more familiar with the offense and may get a boost if Jefferson dresses. The Bears' rushing defense is tough, and Dobbs may see a spike in the 30+ passing attempts since joining the Vikings. Chicago allows a high percentage of completions on the road, and I’m rolling with Dobbs. Over 21.5 completions are propped at DraftKings.
Joshua Dobbs prop: Over 21.5 pass completions (-115 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Dobbling down
The Covers NFL player props tool is the best around. Since I loved the possibilities of the Dobbs completion prop, I decided to look at his passing touchdown prop.
Dobbs has thrown at least one scoring strike in each of his three games with Minnesota and threw two TDs in his first appearance with the Vikings at Atlanta. Dobbs also had three multiple TD passing games with the Cardinals and has a tasty matchup with a bad Bears passing defense.
Chicago allows an average of two passing TDs per contest. That average spikes to 2.3 scoring strikes allowed per contest away from Soldier Field. It also allows a high completion rate, and we’re getting a ton of value if Dobbs can throw a pair of scoring strikes.
U.S. Bank Stadium is a dome, and Dobbs won’t have to deal with the elements or anything other than a very bad Chicago passing defense.
Joshua Dobbs prop: Over 1.5 touchdown passes (+125 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Hock it down
Once again, I'm staying with how I see the game script, and if anyone finds the end zone for the Vikings, it will be tight end T.J. Hockenson.
Minnesota's TE is one of the best in the NFL, hauling in 75 of his 102 targets this season with four TD receptions, with three scoring strike receptions coming in the red zone. That makes sense, as Hockenson has been targeted 13 times in the red zone and boasts a 77.8% RZ target rate with eight grabs on a baker's dozen worth of targets.
Hockenson and Dobbs have formed a solid connection since Dobb's arrival nearly one month ago. Dobbs has thrown his way 22 times over their last two contests and one TD against New Orleans — and I see this same connection flourishing on Monday night.
The Bears have the worst RZ defense in the NFL. This season, they’ve yielded a TD on 75% of their opponents' red zone attempts. We’ve already seen how the Bears surrender 2.3 passing TDs on the road, and Hockenson will likely see a few opportunities Monday against their shaky passing defense.
Finally, I see Dobbs having a big day against a shaky Bears passing defense. He’ll get his completions and find Hockenson in the end zone for at least one TD reception. Be sure to look at all of the T.J. Hockenson odds available to find the best price.
T.J. Hockenson prop: Anytime touchdown scorer (+175 at Caesars)
Not intended for use in MA.
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