Thanksgiving Weekend is now in the rearview, but we've got one more NFL game on the slate.
The Minnesota Vikings host the Chicago Bears in the Week 12 odds finale tonight on Monday Night Football, with the home team set as a slim favorite for this classic rivalry.
Minnesota is trying to keep pace in the division race and has brought bettors along for the ride, covering the spread in six straight games.
This success against the spread has a lot to do with the storybook play of recently acquired quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who is keeping this offense afloat after the Vikings lost incumbent QB Kirk Cousins for the season.
I dissect the NFL odds for Monday Night Football and give my free NFL picks for Bears vs. Vikings on November 27. Be sure to also check out our Justin Fields prop picks, along with our MNF prop picks.
Bears vs Vikings odds
Bears vs Vikings predictions
The Chicago Bears prepare for a dangerous Minnesota Vikings defense on Monday Night Football.
Minnesota is the most blitz-happy stop unit in the land under coordinator Brian Flores, bringing extra pass rushers on more than 47% of opponents’ dropbacks.
The last time these rivals clashed, that pressure got to Justin Fields for five sacks and caused Chicago’s QB to injure his throwing hand as he scrambled out of the pocket and took a tackle.
The Bears need to get rid of the ball quicker when Minnesota turns up the heat, which gives Fields less time for downfield throws and leaves him hitting his check-down options, like running back Khalil Herbert.
Herbert, who missed the Week 6 matchup with the Vikes due to an ankle injury, has become an important part of this Bears passing game which targets the running backs on 23.8% of passing snaps — the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
Herbert has 89 total receiving yards with 12 catches on 21 targets for an average of 7.4 yards per catch in his six games in action so far this season.
His receiving yards prop for Monday night sits at 10.5 yards (Over -114). This number is shorter than his last posted receiving yard O/U from Week 5 (12.5), as he suffered an ankle injury early into that game (left with no receiving yards).
When healthy, Herbert’s been a potent option with the pass against other blitz-heavy defenses, snatching 79 of those total gains against the likes of Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and Denver — all of which sit Top 13 in blitz rate.
Herbert returned from that ankle injury against Detroit in Week 11, getting 16 carries but was targeted in the passing attack only three times for two catches and six yards. The Lions blitz at the sixth-lowest rate in the league.
Not only does his value tick up against the Vikings’ aggressive approach but with fellow RB D'Onta Foreman listed as doubtful for Week 12, Herbert should draw added snaps at Chicago’s featured RB1. He recorded 33 snaps in his first game back from injury last Sunday but was drawing upwards of 56 snaps before hurting his ankle.
Minnesota’s defense has done a great job limiting rival running backs on the ground, sitting No. 6 in EPA allowed per handoff and giving up the third-lowest yards per attempt (3.7), but the Vikes have been burned by pass-catching RBs in recent weeks.
They allowed 60 yards receiving to Denver’s Samaje Perine last week, 33 yards to Saints RB Alvin Kamara, 58 yards to the Packers’ combo of A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones, and 51 yards to 49ers star Christian McCaffrey.
Week 12 player projections all have Herbert forecast for more than 10.5 receiving yards, with my number coming out north of 14 yards and the ceiling flirting with 18 yards through the air — a bar I believe is higher due to the matchup with Minnesota and Foreman’s doubtful status.
Once Foreman is officially ruled out, Herbert’s markets will start climbing so grab the low on his receiving yards now.
My best bet: Khalil Herbert Over 10.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Bears vs Vikings same-game parlay
Khalil Herbert Over 10.5 receiving yards
K.J. Osborn Over 2.5 receptions
D.J. Moore Over 59.5 receiving yards
Herbert gets RB1 snaps and will be a pressure release for Fields when the Vikings bring the house.
With J.J. likely out again, Osborn remains Minnesota’s top downfield threat. He had a quiet return from a concussion in Week 11 but is healthy and getting a low total in receptions Monday night.
Moore is a monster no matter who’s throwing the ball. He blew up for 96 yards with Fields back under center last week and thrives in fast indoor tracks like Minnesota.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bears vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line for this NFC North grudge matchup listed Minnesota as a 4-point favorite before it lost at Denver last Sunday night.
The official Week 12 opener hit the board at Vikings -3.5 and that has since slimmed to a field goal spread, as of Sunday morning.
Covers Consensus shows 74% of picks on Minnesota but sportsbooks like BetMGM are reporting 57% of ticket count on the home team but and 58% of handle (total money wagered) taking the points with the Bears.
Chicago is coming off a 31-26 loss at Detroit last weekend, welcoming back dynamic QB Justin Fields under center. With Fields in the mix, the Bears could be primed for a late-season push which is why we’re seeing this spread slim closer to kickoff.
After a rough start to 2023, Chicago’s stop unit has started to find its footing in the past seven outings. The Bears rank 11th in EPA allowed per play since Week 5, which includes a 19-13 loss to the Vikings in Week 6.
That first meeting saw Fields suffer a right hand injury that would sideline him for four games and also featured Cousins under center for Minnesota — a luxury the Vikes no longer have. However, Dobbs has made some magic since being acquired at the trade deadline.
In the three games with Dobbs at the wheel, the Minnesota offense sits 13th in EPA per play and has been especially efficient at passing the ball, ranked eighth in success rate per pass in that span.
Given the Bears have had one of the best run-stop units the past two months, a lot of weight is on Dobbs to move the chains.
That air attack would get an instant upgrade if star wideout Justin Jefferson suits up Monday night, but with Minnesota on the bye next week, it sounds more likely he will sit out and extend his recovery from a hamstring injury.
The Over/Under for Monday’s game opened at 45.5 points and has sunk as low as 42.5 at some books, as of Sunday morning. Covers Consensus shows 64% of picks on the Over while BetMGM is reporting 52% of ticket count on the Under and one-sided 78% of money on the Under as well.
The Bears are 7-4 Over/Under on the season, including 6-1 O/U in games in which Fields is under center. Chicago is a much more dynamic offense with the dual-threat QB in the mix and runs a quicker pace in terms of seconds per play.
As for Minnesota, it owns a 3-8 O/U mark on the year but is 2-1 O/U with Dobbs as the quarterback. The Vikings defense has stepped up in the second half of the schedule and this stop unit sits No. 4 in EPA allowed per play since Week 6.
These NFC North rivals played Under the closing total of 45 points in their Week 6 matchup. Chicago and Minnesota are 4-6 O/U in their last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Bears vs Vikings betting trend to know
The Bears are just 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS in divisional road games since the 2020 season. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Vikings.
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Bears vs Vikings game info
| Location: | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Monday, November 27, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN or ABC |
| Opening odds: | Vikings -4.5, 44.5 |
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