Bengals vs Browns Week 1 Picks and Predictions: The Cooper-Watson Connection

Cincinnati Bengals bettors almost soiled their tiger-striped shorts while watching Joe Burrow limp off the practice field in late July.

The star quarterback, who was healthy entering training camp for the first time in his pro career, suffered a nasty calf strain that threatened his availability for Cincinnati’s Week 1 matchup with the rival Cleveland Browns.

Luckily for Cincy stans, Burrow was back in action this past week and is on track to play in this “Battle of Ohio” in Cleveland.

The Browns have QB questions of their own, with Deshaun Watson playing his first full season with the franchise after getting into only six games in 2022 due to suspension.

Watson showed flashes of his former brilliance in those limited outings and Cleveland is crossing its fingers that a full training camp can coax the quarterback to return to his elite status.

I size up the Week 1 NFL odds, spread, and Over/Under total for this AFC North war and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Bengals at Browns on September 10.

Bengals vs Browns odds

Bengals vs Browns predictions

I’m a Dallas Cowboys fan. That means every time I watch the Cleveland Browns, I think about what could have been. Of course, I’m referring to Dallas casting WR Amari Cooper off to Cleveland before the 2022 season.

Despite the Browns QB situation — Jacoby Brissett holding down the position until Deshaun Watson returned from suspension — Cooper continued to play like a star. He finished the campaign with 1,160 yards on 78 receptions, nine of which went for touchdowns.

In the final six games with Watson under center, Cooper’s numbers took a tumble as the QB shook off two years of rust, but that pairing did make for some impressive connections. Cooper had a monster 105-yard, two-touchdown effort against Washington in Week 17, highlighted by a 46-yard scoring strike from Watson.

Both Watson and Cooper have gushed about their continued chemistry this offseason, and many analysts believe Cooper will have a great 2023 — if not his best season — with Watson making those throws.

"He's a lot more comfortable,” Cooper said of Watson’s approach to the 2023 season. “Obviously, him not playing for almost two years. When he first came back, he was just trying to get back to where he was. And I think just from talking to him, he feels like he's back to him."

It all starts in Week 1 against the rival Cincinnati Bengals.

Cooper’s receiving yard total is a modest 55.5 yards (Over -110), which is a mark he surpassed in 10 of his 17 games in 2022 and short of his season average of more than 68 yards per outing last year.

His Week 1 player projections are all north of that 55.5-yard total with a consensus projection of 64.5 yards, giving us almost a 10-yard buffer on Over, and a ceiling close to 70 yards.

Cooper faced this Bengals defense twice last year, catching only two of seven targets for 42 yards in Watson’s second game back at QB in Week 14. However, with Brissett under center, the former Alabama star torched Cincinnati for a season-high 131 yards, reeling in five of seven targets and scoring a touchdown in Cleveland’s Monday Night Football win on Halloween.

Cooper also looked ready to roll in limited preseason work, catching one of three balls his way — that lone reception going for 53 yards in the exhibition finale against Kansas City. The play was set up by Watson evading pressure and rolling out to hit Cooper down the sideline.

My best bet: Amari Cooper Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Bengals vs Browns same-game parlay

Amari Cooper Over 55.5 receiving yards

Joe Mixon Under 20.5 receiving yards

Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD

+495 at DraftKings

Cooper’s chemistry with Watson will continue to cook and he’ll top this receiving yard total with just a couple of catches. All of his Week 1 models are calling for at least 60-plus yards with a ceiling of more than 70.

Joe Mixon may not be the third-down back for the Bengals, with fellow RB Chris Evans sliding into that pass-catching role in camp. Many of his Week 1 receiving projections are well below his receiving yard O/U of 20.5 yards.

The last time Ja'Marr Chase faced the Browns, he torched them on 10 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals’ top target scored nine TDs in an abbreviated 2022 due to injury and had two more scores in the playoffs. Many models give him the highest probability of finding paydirt in Week 1. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bengals vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis

Week 1 odds are a different breed of NFL lines due to the fact that most books open these when the schedule releases in the spring. Cincinnati hit the board as a 2.5-point road favorite in late May and stayed around that spot for most of the summer.

However, when Joe Burrow went down with a calf injury on July 27, this line took a tumble to as low as Bengals -1 and the total came down with it, sinking to 47 points from a high of 48.

Burrow’s return to the practice field and optimistic reports from Cincinnati have this spread back to its original spot of Bengals -2.5 across the industry as of Wednesday morning.

According to BetMGM books, the Burrow injury hasn’t scared off bettors. They’re reporting 71% of the ticket count and 64% of the handle on the visiting side. Our Covers Consensus percentages paint a similar picture, with 62% of picks on Cincinnati.

My NFL power ratings are quite high on the Bengals in 2023, ranking them No. 4 overall in the league. Those ratings pump out a projected line of Cincy -2.83, which is pretty much on the nose with the actual spread for this in-state showdown.

Bettors know what the Bengals bring to the table... as long as Burrow is under center. This is one of the best offensive attacks in the land, with Burrow surrounded by arguably the top receiver corps in the AFC. Bengals backers have witnessed their wagers brought to life by the late-game excellence of Burrow, who is one of the best QBs in crunch time.

That attack tests a Cleveland defense that must improve on a disappointing 2022, in which the stop unit finished 25th in EPA allowed per play and didn’t pose a threat with a pash rush ranked among the bottom of the league in pressure rate and sacks (34). Standout corner Denzel Ward is questionable for Week 1 while in concussion protocols and would leave a huge gap in the Cleveland secondary versus the Bengals' prolific passing game.

As mentioned, the Over/Under for this Week 1 contest did dip with Burrow’s calf injury but has settled in around 47.5 points.

We know what we’re going to get from Cincinnati’s offense (be sure to check out the trend below), but the Browns attack is a bit of a mystery.

Running back Nick Chubb is the anchor of this playbook — at least until Watson proves he’s a consistent passer. He cooked up good chemistry with top WR Cooper at the end of last season and added another target in Elijah Moore in an offseason trade. The ceiling is quite high for the Browns offense if everything clicks.

These Ohio foes split their two meetings last season, with Cleveland winning 32-13 as a 3-point home underdog on Halloween. Cincinnati returned serve with a 23-10 victory on its field in December, covering as 4.5-point chalk. Those games finished 0-1-1 Over/Under. 

Bengals vs Browns betting trend to know

In four seasons under head coach Zac Taylor, Cincinnati is 11-25-1 Over/Under as a visitor in both the regular season and playoffs — a 69% Under winner. This Under run continued in 2022 with the Bengals going 3-7-1 O/U away from home, including a 0-2 O/U count in the postseason.

Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Browns.

Bengals vs Browns game info

Bengals vs Browns latest injuries

Bengals vs Browns weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic