Sunday Night Football is a showcase of two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals visit Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11.
I dissect the opening NFL odds for Sunday Night Football and give my early Bengals vs. Chargers predictions and NFL picks for November 17.
Bengals vs Chargers predictions
Early spread lean
Chargers -1.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Oddsmakers opened the Los Angeles Chargers as a 1.5-point home favorite in Sunday Night Football, expecting a very tight finish in Week 11.
To me, the Bolts just have more ways to win this game than the Cincinnati Bengals. While Cincinnati’s passing offense is sensational and Burrow is the best quarterback Los Angeles has played this year, the Bengals’ path to victory is a one-way street.
Los Angeles is finding excellent balance in the playbook with Herbert looking healthy and getting his skill players back to action after early-season injuries thinned the depth chart.
The Chargers rank No. 12 in EPA per dropback and Herbert has been hitting his targets for bigger gains, watching his average yards per attempt spike to 9.4 the last three games. Complementing that is a ground game that just got RB Gus Edwards back in the lineup. The Bolts bullied their way to 145 rushing yards against a very good Tennessee defense in Week 10.
Los Angeles also owns the better defense, by far. Cincinnati’s stop unit is gushing yardage and sits among the bottom of the NFL in many advanced metrics, especially after last Thursday’s shootout with Baltimore.
The Chargers, on the other hand, are No. 6 in Defensive DVOA and No. 3 in EPA allowed per play as well as opponent success rate per snap heading into Week 11. We’ve witnessed the Bengals get stymied by quality defenses already this season.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 47 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Over was one of my first bets of Week 11, but I snatched up the lower opening total of 45 points on Sunday night. Since then, this number has taken more Over money and ballooned to the key O/U number of 47 points.
As mentioned, Cincinnati’s defense is in the dumps. The Bengals have allowed a total of 96 points in the past three games, playing well above the total in all three contests. The Bengals are breaking inside their 20-yard line, giving up touchdowns at a 71.88% rate inside the red zone (second worst in the league).
That puts a lot of pressure on Burrow and the offense to keep the team within striking distance. Burrow is a big step up in QB competition for the Bolts, who have picked on the likes of Will Levis, Jameis Winston, and Spencer Rattler the last three outings. I don’t expect L.A.’s defense to be as drum-tight as those past showings.
This game is also being played on the clean, fast surface of SoFi Stadium on Sunday night, which means Cincy’s speedy receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and potentially Tee Higgins will put on a track meet.
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Bengals vs Chargers live odds
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