Time is running out for the Cincinnati Bengals who enter Sunday night 1-4 SU on the season ahead of their must-win game at MetLife Stadium vs. the surprising New York Giants.
With the health of the Bengals’ backfield a question ahead of SNF, my Bengals vs. Giants predictions believe Joe Burrow will look Ja'Marr Chase's way early and often.
I dig into this cross-conference matchup and give my best NFL picks for October 13.
Bengals vs Giants SNF prediction
My best bet
Ja'Marr Chase Over 25.5 yards longest reception (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Joe Burrow put up BIG numbers last week vs. Baltimore but it wasn't enough. The Cincinnati Bengals cannot go down 1-5 SU to start the season and because of one of the worst offenses in football, Burrow will have to do most of the heavy lifting on offense again in Week 6. However, Ja'Marr Chase might be the more bankable person in this offense to bet on.
Chase is coming off a 193-yard game and has nearly 400 receiving yards over the last three weeks. Of those nearly 400 yards, 193 of them come after the catch as he paces the league in yards after the catch by a substantial amount. He might not be running the longest routes, but he is taking a lot of his looks for big gains and I expect the same on Sunday night.
A total of 25.5 receiving yards for longest catch is about as big as it gets, but over the last three weeks, he has long catches of 70, 41, 63, 41, and 31 yards while also including another five receptions of 15 to 22 yards. Tee Higgins is actually leading the Bengals in target share of late, but Chase has been the big-play guy and has been crushing his longest reception prop. The scary thing is, Chase could actually increase his target share which sits at 23% which is down from 25% last year.
Burrow could make a case for MVP if he goes on one of his mid-season runs, much like last year, but this is still one of the best offenses that will have to stay engaged because of a bad defense.
The New York Giants are still dealing with some injuries in the secondary (Adoree' Jackson and Dru Phillips) while the Bengals' passing rate might have to go up as RBs Zack Moss and Chase Brown have been dealing with injuries this week. Both backs were limited in the middle of the week but are expected to play.
Bengals vs Giants SNF same-game parlay
J'a'Marr Chase anytime touchdown
Ja'Marr Chase 100+ rec yards
Joe Burrow 2+ passing touchdowns
You can't add longest receptions to SGPs, but 100+ yards is a great boost and something he's topped in two of his last three games. With a defense like Cincinnati's, this offense will always need to pass.
Burrow is also doing everything he can to get the Bengals into winning form. His presser after the Baltimore loss echoed that. He has 10 passing TDs over his last three games and should be the comeback player of the year betting favorite by Tuesday. If Chase is scoring and hitting the century mark, Burrow is getting a pair of passing TDs. If you change this to 3+ passing TDs, you can get something closer to 10/1.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bengals vs Giants odds
Bengals vs Giants live odds
Bengals vs Giants opening odds
- Spread: Cincinnati -5 | New York +5
- Moneyline: Cincinnati -225 | New York +185
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under46.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bengals vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Giants were as long as +5 heading into Week 5, but following a win vs Seattle, that shortened up to +3.5 where it stayed all week.
- The total got as high as 49, but Malik Nabers being out has helped bring Under money in which has driven this to a flat 47.
- The weather could also be helping drive down the total as scattered showers are possible so hopefully we don't see a situation like last week in Pittsburgh.
- Both Zack Moss and Chase Brown were back at practice on Friday in full while the Giants will be without Malik Nabers (concussion) and possibly punter Jamie Gillan who is dealing with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable.
Bengals vs Giants betting trend to know
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in eight of their last nine away games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI). Find more NFL Betting trends for Bengals vs. Giants.
Bengals vs Giants game info
| Location: | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-13, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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