The Cincinnati Bengals face off against the New York Giants in Sunday Night Football action this week.
There's a good chance of scattered showers for the primetime clash while the tricky crosswinds at the Meadowlands could gust over 20 mph. That factors into how I'm betting the player props markets as I back a running back and slot receiver while even wagering on a defensive player prop.
Here are my three favorite NFL picks and Bengals vs. Giants predictions for October 13.
Bengals vs Giants SNF props
- Brown longest rush Over 13.5 yards (-125 at bet365)
- Robinson 6+ receptions (-150 at bet365)
- Wilson tackle assists Over 3.5 (+110 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Bengals vs Giants SNF props
Prop bet #1: Chase Brown longest rush Over 13.5 yards
Although Cincinnati Bengals running backs Chase Brown and Zack Moss both popped up on the injury report this week, they're expected to suit up on Sunday. That's good news for the Bengals because the weather could hinder Joe Burrow's ability to throw downfield, causing them to rely more on their ground game.
Brown is the speedier back and he logged 15 carries for 80 yards in Week 4. Although Brown was limited to 46 yards on 12 carries against Baltimore's elite run defense last week, he became the first back to have an explosive run (10+ yards) against the Ravens this year and did so twice.
Brown has had a carry of at least 16 yards in three straight games, and his explosive run rate of 22% is the second-highest among running backs with at least 30 carries.
From NFL Pro: Chase Brown has the 2nd highest explosive run rate among RBs. pic.twitter.com/sbURnn6DwI
— NYGfaninCLT (@clt_ny) October 9, 2024
The New York Giants have a stout defensive line anchored by Dexter Lawrence, but if backs get past that line, they can tear off yards in the second level. The Giants allow explosive runs at the third-highest rate in the league, so bet on Brown to rip off a long run on Sunday.
Prop bet #2: Wan'Dale Robinson 6+ receptions
Wan'Dale Robinson has snagged 6+ receptions in four of five games this year and he's tied for fourth in the league with 47 targets. His teammate, Malik Nabers, is second on that list with 52 targets but is set to miss his second-straight game due to a concussion.
With Nabers sidelined, Robinson could see an even larger target share against a Bengals defense that ranks 29th in dropback EPA. Especially with Robinson running 67.8% of his snaps from the slot and Bengals slot corner Mike Hilton struggling with a coverage grade of 52.7 as he tries to play through a knee injury.
While strong winds could play havoc with downfield passing, that shouldn't affect Robinson, who tends to run short routes and has an average target distance of just 4.6 yards.
Prop bet #3: Logan Wilson tackle assists Over 3.5
The Giants offense has upped it's efficiency over the last few weeks because Brian Daboll is doing a better job of using the personnel they have. He's trying to get the ball out of Daniel Jones' hand quicker with screen passes and other plays close to the line of scrimmage.
That should lead to plenty of tackling opportunities for Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson, who attacks the line of scrimmage and sniffs out screen plays.
Wilson leads the team with 52 tackles but Germaine Pratt is just behind him with 51 and the two LBs often flow to the ball together and share tackles. Wilson has logged 4+ assisted tackles in four of five contests and is averaging 4.6 tackle assists per game.
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