We've learned through the early part of the NFL season that passing seems to be a lot more difficult than it should be for a passing-first league.
Betting on passing-related NFL player props has been a bit of a crapshoot, so last week I kicked it old-school and relied on the ground game: Four of my five NFL picks were rushing props... and I went 4-1 (the loser being a passing prop).
So what are we doing this week? Sticking with the ground and pound baby!
I kicked things off with a winning rushing prop for TNF, and the rest of my prop picks are also run-heavy for the today.
Latest NFL prop picks
Irving o60.5 rush yards
(-110 at bet365)
Allgeier o37.5 rush yards
(-110 at bet365)
Gibbs o56.5 rush yards
(-110 at bet365)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 6
Bucky Irving Over 60.5 rush yards
With current Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB1 Rachaad White a game-time decision for Sunday (and officially listed a doubtful) due to a foot injury, Bucky Irving is poised to dominate the backfield carries — which has me loving the Over on his total against a vulnerable New Orleans Saints defense.
Irving had already been eating into White's playing time — actually having more carries over the last three weeks — as he had displayed significantly more explosiveness, speed, and toughness when running — and it shows with his 5.61 yards per carry, plus 3.6 average yards after contact and seven runs of 10+ yards.
His total originally opened at 37.5 yards, with the assumption that White was still going to get at least 50% of the snaps, but with the backfield belonging to Bucky this week, adding just 22.5 yards to that seems low — the Saints just saw Kareem Hunt run a whopping 27 times for 102 yards, making it 133 yards on 5.3 yards per carry that they've surrendered over the last three games.
There's little danger of New Orleans pulling away and forcing Tampa Bay to abandon the run, with fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler making his first NFL start, and if anything I could see the Bucs holding a solid fourth-quarter lead and running the clock out.
THE BLITZ is the only projection model I've seen with a readjusted number, putting Irving at 64.9 yards, adding confidence that he can surpass this total.
Pick made on 10-11
Tyler Allgeier Over 37.5 rush yards
Last week, I faded the Carolina Panthers' run defense because, in the famous words of colleague Andrew Caley, "they bad."
This week, I'm going back to the well as the Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons — but rather than back starting running back Bijan Robinson, I'm going with RB2 Tyler Allgeier's odds to top his rushing total. It's a much lower total than Bijan's 65.5... and Allgeier is not as much of a backup right now as you'd think.
Robinson had 19 rushing attempts (to Allgeier's 14) over the last two weeks, with the snap counts sitting more in the 60-40 range during those games, compared to 80-20 through the first three weeks. Some of that can be attributed to Bijan dealing with a hamstring ailment, but he was still limited in practice yesterday due to that, so I'm not expecting him to get a monster workload this Sunday either.
In fact, Allgeier could see a season-high in playing time against the 1-4 Panthers who, let me reiterate, suck at stopping the run. After giving up 128 rushing yards to the Bears last week, Carolina has given up 167 rushing yards per game to teams not named the Raiders and ranks dead last in run-stop win rate.
Allgeier has topped this number in 3/5 games this season (he fell short Week 1 against the Steelers in his lowest snap count of the year and last week when Kirk Cousins threw for 15,000 yards), and with a good chance that Atlanta goes run-heavy in the latter stages with a comfortable lead, I could see Allgeier getting most of the carries to protect a banged-up Bijan.
Pick made on 10-11
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 56.5 rush yards
The Detroit Lions love to run the ball, and while it can get tricky finding who to back with Detroit rolling a two-headed backfield monster, when you're facing a run defense as bad as the Dallas Cowboys... there is no wrong answer!
However, I'm picking one Lions RB here, and it's Jahmyr Gibbs odds I'm choosing to support for this Sunday's matchup.
David Montgomery has more carries on the season year but Gibbs has actually led the team in rushes in two of the last three games, averaging just north of 14 carries per game — while also easily topping this number in each of those contests (averaging about 82 yards per game).
Gibbs is also the much more explosive runner, averaging a full yard per carry more, forcing more missed tackles, and his breakaway run percentage (35.4%) dwarfs that of Montgomery's 15.4% mark.
The Lions' offensive line is also third in run block win rate and the team overall is sixth in rush yards per game — it has a clear advantage against a Dallas defense that currently is 30th in run stop win rate and has done well against bad offenses/running attacks (Browns, Giants, Steelers)... but surrendered 464 yards to strong run games in New Orleans and Baltimore.
Running the ball will also help Detroit protect its suspect pass defense from Dak Prescott and the Dallas pass attack, so I'm expecting both Gibbs and Montgomery to get plenty of carries on Sunday — with the explosive Gibbs specifically doing damage.
Pick made on 10-10
Terry McLaurin longest reception Over 23.5 yards
OK, I know this isn't a rushing prop... but it's the perfect harmony of great recent performance, an exploitable matchup, and a likely game-script boost.
Terry McLaurin leads all receivers with 11 targets of 20+ air yards over the last three weeks, as he and Washington Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels have been cooking over that stretch, connecting for 264 yards and receptions of 23, 27, 55, and 66 yards over that span. For the year, he's third among WRs in deep-target rate and average depth of target (per Pro Football Focus).
Washington is facing its toughest test so far in the Baltimore Ravens, but this isn't the Ravens defense we're accustomed to: Baltimore has allowed the second-most passing yards, second-most yards per completion, and the second-most receptions of 20+ yards (23).
Based on when McLaurin predominantly lines up, he should see a lot of CB Brandon Stephens, who ranks 45th or worse (out of 64 corners with 75 coverage snaps) in targeted rate, yards per target, and explosive pass plays allowed.
Finally, the Commanders could be chasing points in this game against a tough Ravens offense, so we could see even more of a pass-heavy approach, which only further helps Scary Terry's chances of breaking off another big passing play.
Pick made on 10-10
Brock Purdy Over 12.5 rush yards
This line opened at 11.5 and has already moved up to 13.5 at many outlets... because Brock Purdy has embraced using his legs when the situation calls for it.
The San Francisco 49ers quarterback has run for 11+ yards in eight straight games, dating back to the start of last season's playoffs, including 33 and 41 yards in two of his three most recent outings.
Purdy will also be facing a Seattle Seahawks team tonight that is No. 1 in QB pressure rate through five weeks, which could force him to use his legs more if the pocket starts to break down. Seattle has only faced two mobile QBs so far this season but both were successful on the ground, with Bo Nix running for 35 yards in his NFL debut and Daniel Jones logging 38 yards last week.
Industry projections range as high as 22 yards for Purdy this week and in a game that stands to impact the NFC West Divisional race, I expect Purdy to do whatever's necessary to help secure a win.
Pick made on 10-10
NFL Week 6 prop betting card
- Brock Purdy Over 12.5 rush yards (-110)
- Terry McLaurin longest reception Over 23.5 yards (-114)
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 56.5 rush yards (-110)
- Tyler Allgeier Over 37.5 rush yards (-110)
- Bucky Irving Over 60.5 rush yards (-110)
Last week: 4-1, +2.53 units
Season: 13-12, +0.07 units
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
