I made some progress in Week 3, posting my first winning week this season in betting on NFL player props.
I'm looking to keep the good times rolling this week, and although my TNF prop was a bit of a dud, I'm also backing a reliable tight end against a pressure-heavy defense, plus a star QB and a high-profile rookie WR to deliver in advantageous matchups.
Here are my best NFL picks for Week 4's slate of games.
Latest NFL prop picks
Hubbard o58.5 rush yards
(-113 at FanDuel)
Harrison Jr. o67.5 rec yards
(-123 at Caesars)
Stroud o258.5 pass yards
(-115 at BetMGM)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 4
Chuba Hubbard Over 58.5 rush yards
This might be the last gasp for Chuba Hubbard, as star rookie RB Jonathan Brooks could make his debut as early as next week, but I think the veteran will go out with a bang as the clear RB1 this week against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Hubbard went off last week with Andy Dalton back under center for the Carolina Panthers, getting 21 carries for 115 yards, which followed a solid 10-for-64 effort in Week 2. He's received 69% of the carries over this span and should be productive against a bad Bengals run defense.
Cincy has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game and sits 21st in run-stop win rate. The Patriots (who can't pass) ran all over them in Week 1, then the Chiefs trucked through them in Week 2, before not being completely awful last week vs. Washington... except that was in part due to Jayden Daniels picking them apart.
Compounding the Bengals' woes is a decimated defensive line: DT Sheldon Rankins was already ruled out, fellow DT B.J. Hill is doubtful with a hamstring injury, and star DE Trey Hendrickson is questionable after missing practice due to illness.
Hubbard isn't going to disappear entirely once Brooks returns, but this is his last chance to make a big statement (either for continued playing time or a potential trade to a contender) and I think he makes the most of it.
Pick made on 9-27
Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 67.5 receiving yards
All those concerns about Marvin Harrison Jr. (following a quiet NFL debut) were put to bed rather quickly with consecutive games looking like a true WR1 — and he's in line for another big week as he and the Arizona Cardinals face the Washington Commanders.
After just one catch on three targets in Week 1, MHJ has seen 18 targets over the last two weeks (14th among all WR/TE) and racked up 194 receiving yards (eighth in the NFL over that span), clearly establishing himself as Kyler Murray's favorite target.
He could be in for even more work on Sunday as TE Trey McBride — who accounted for almost a quarter of the Cardinals' targets through the first three weeks — is out, which gives Harrison more opportunity to attack the Commanders secondary.
Washington has allowed the third-most yards to wide receivers and the seventh-highest opponent completion percentage overall, with the top target in each game recording 83, 127, and 118 receiving yards.
This number is all over the place — some books are 69.5 with the same juice, others are as high as 71.5 — so I'm comfortable paying some extra vig on the lowest number available, especially with industry projections ranging as high as 80 yards and averaging about 75.
Pick made on 9-27
C.J. Stroud Over 258.5 pass yards
The Houston Texans haven't started this season as the offensive juggernaut we all expected, but Week 4 offers a great chance to break out — especially if you like the Over on CJ Stroud odds.
(Spoiler: I'm one of those people).
Stroud's passing total is as high as 269.5 at some operators, but BetMGM is currently offering this at 258.5; a very reachable number against a putrid Jacksonville Jaguars defense.
After consecutive weeks against tough pass defenses in Chicago and Minnesota, the Jags will be a breath of fresh air, currently allowing the third-most passing yards per game, pressuring QBs at the sixth-lowest rate, and failing to force a single turnover thus far.
Jacksonville is also a good matchup schematically, as it runs the highest rate of man coverage in the league (53.1%) but sits in the bottom half in yards per coverage snap and explosive play rate while in man (per Pro Football Focus).
Oh, and Houston has three wide receivers — Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell — who are all matchup nightmares.
Industry projections range as high as 273 for Stroud, giving a little buffer on this number, and it should also be noted that Stroud topped this number in his only home game so far this season and 7/9 home games last year — and he's at home this Sunday.
Pick made on 9-27
Tyler Conklin Over 2.5 receptions
After two dud weeks to start the season, Tyler Conklin was the biggest beneficiary of the Aaron Rodgers Masterclass in Week 3, catching five of six targets for 93 yards.
It was comforting to see Rodgers remember he has a tight end, after years of seeing him rely on the position in Green Bay, and I think we will see another busy day for Conklin this week against the Denver Broncos.
Denver loves to bring pressure, sitting fourth in the NFL in pressure rate (30.6%) and blitzing a league-high 45.6% of the time, which should force a generally immobile Rodgers to make a lot of quick throws.
With Garrett Wilson likely to be locked down by Patrick Surtain II, Alan Lazard seeing his targets drop each week, and Mike Williams still working his way up to a full snap count, Conklin is positioned to be the safety valve — and his reception total of 2.5 is more appealing than RB Breece Hall at 4.5.
It's also not surprising that the Broncos have also allowed tight ends to have productive days already as Cade Otton caught 7/8 targets last week for Tampa Bay and Pat Freiermuth went 4/4 the week before, plus Denver has allowed the 10th-most receptions and an 83.3% catch rate to TEs overall this season.
Pick made on 9-26
Devin Singletary longest rush Over 15.5 yards
Devin Singletary is by no means a star but he is the RB1 for the New York Giants — and facing the Dallas Cowboys run defense gives him star potential this week.
I still haven't figured out a scientific description for Dallas' run defense, but man is it bad... by every metric you can think of:
- 32nd in rushing yards allowed
- 32nd in rushing yards per carry
- 32nd in average depth of tackle
- 31st in run stuff percentage
- 31st in run-stop win rate
Per Pro Football Focus, the Cowboys also have the fifth-most missed tackles against the run (18) but have only allowed two runs of 20+ yards; they just consistently get gashed for big gains.
This has me betting the Over on Singletary's longest rush, which opened at 14.5 yards but has since shifted to 15.5, although FanDuel offers this at even money.
The veteran RB has logged 16 carries in each of the Giants' last two games, and while he did fumble in both, he was productive overall: He's generated a league-leading 15 missed tackles over the last two weeks, along with six runs of 10+ yards — including runs of 43, 22, and 18 yards.
Singletary's rushing attempts total is 14.5, meaning he's expected to get a workload similar to his previous two weeks, and I could see it being a little more than that as the Giants will want to keep the ball on the ground (both to protect quarterback Daniel Jones from Micah Parsons' pass rush and to keep Dallas' passing attack off the field).
Every carry Singletary gets has a chance of turning into a chunk play against this sieve-like run defense — and I think he gashes them at least once tonight.
Pick made on 9-26
NFL Week 4 prop betting card
- Devin Singletary longest rush Over 15.5 yards (+100)
- Tyler Conklin Over 2.5 receptions (-130)
- C.J. Stroud Over 258.5 pass yards (-115)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 67.5 receiving yards (-123)
- Chuba Hubbard Over 58.5 rush yards (-113)
Last week: 3-2, +0.64 units
Season: 6-9, -2.98 units
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
