We're into the home stretch of the NFL regular season, with bye weeks finished for the year and a full buffet of NFL player props back available to us.
There's been no shortage of NFL Week 15 props that show some value, so I'm kicking things off with a TNF prop pick for tonight, as well as backing a dominant running back coming off a week of rest, and a wide receiver that should do anything but rest this Sunday.
NFL Week 15 prop picks
Jauan Jennings o66.5 rec yards (-120)
Henry long rush o20.5 yards (-110)
Wilson o61.5 rec yards (-110)
Click on each pick to see full analysis.
NFL prop picks for Week 15
Jauan Jennings Over 66.5 receiving yards (-120)
Jauan Jennings has been on a roll since returning from a two-game absence, leading the San Francisco 49ers with a 33% target share over the last five weeks, while sitting fifth in the NFL in catches (32) and 11th in receiving yards (370) during that span.
He's recorded 90+ yards in three of those five games, with the failures coming in a game with backup QB Brandon Allen starting... and a blizzard game at Buffalo where it was 28 degrees out.
Tonight, Jennings and the Niners are in the comfy confines of Levi's Stadium to host the Los Angeles Rams, who are 24th in passing yards against per game, 30th in yards per catch, and just allowed two separate Bills WRs to top 90+ yards.
Los Angeles allowed Jennings to go for a season-high 11 catches and 175 yards earlier this season and this could be a very pass-conducive game script: The Niners' defense has been struggling without Nick Bosa and Dre Greenlaw (both still questionable for TNF), the Rams' offense has been hot, and San Fran may be down to its fourth-string running back.
We could see 49ers' QB1 Brock Purdy slinging up tonight, which means plenty of looks for his favorite target.
Pick: Jauan Jennings Over 66.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Pick made on 12-12
Derrick Henry longest rush Over 20.5 yards (-110)
The NFL's most punishing running back, Derrick Henry, is coming out of his bye week to face one of the league's most pathetic run defenses in the New York Giants — what could go wrong?
For the G-Men... everything?
However, with Henry's rushing yards prop sitting in triple-digits — a bit too meaty for my taste — I'm going to look at his longest rush prop, which is currently sitting at 20.5 yards. Despite King Henry hitting a bit of a lull, topping 80 yards just twice in his last six games, he's recorded a 20+ yard run four times in that span and 10 of his last 12 games overall.
Plus, with a week off to rest prior to this matchup, the Baltimore Ravens star should look more like the RB who is fifth in the NFL in missed tackles forced, second in yards after contact, and first with 14 runs of 20+ yards.
Meanwhile, New York just held Alvin Kamara to 44 rushing yards... but it still ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed to RBs, 30th in yards per attempt, and dead last in 20+ yard runs allowed.
The Giants are also starting Tommy DeVito at quarterback (spoiler alert: he's bad), so Baltimore should dominate time of possession and feed Henry more than enough carries to break off a big run (or three).
Pick: Derrick Henry longest rush Over 20.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Pick made on 12-12
Garrett Wilson Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110)
Yes, the New York Jets are a disaster at 3-10 and the Aaron Rodgers experiment has gone oh-so-horribly wrong, but with star RB Breece Hall injured and the team just playing out the fiddle... I'm expecting to see Rodgers sling it as much as possible.
Whether it's to prove to the Jets, to other teams, or just to himself that he's still a capable NFL quarterback, A-a-ron isn't going to shy away from passing at every opportunity — which should mean a big day for wide receiver Garrett Wilson against the Jacksonville Jaguars' subpar pass defense.
Both he and Davante Adams are appealing options, but considering the Jags deploy man-to-man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, I'm leaning toward the third-year pro in Wilson, who is the more explosive receiver at this point.
Since Adams joined the Jets, he has a slightly higher target share vs. man coverage, but Wilson has a much higher catch rate, yards per catch, and aDOT when facing man-to-man. He's also sixth among all WRs in yards vs. man during that eight-week span, while the Jags have also allowed the third-highest completion rate this season.
Jacksonville is also prone to giving up big pass plays, sitting last in 20+ yard completions (58) and 40+ yard passes (10) allowed, and Wilson's speed and agility means a chunk play is always possible, giving more outs for him to top this modest total.
Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-12
NFL Week 15 prop betting card
- Jauan Jennings Over 66.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Derrick Henry longest rush Over 20.5 yards (-110)
- Garrett Wilson Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110)
Last week: 4-1, +2.69 units
Season: 35-35, -4.46 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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