NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 2: Adams Loves New Digs

With more information at our fingertips, Week 2 always gives bettors a great shot at beating prop markets.

This week, I’m targeting a Commanders receiver to pick up where he left off and Davante Adams to continue making magic with Derek Carr.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Curtis Samuel Over 3.5 receptions (-125)
• Curtis Samuel Over 37.5 receiving yards (-112)
• Davante Adams Over 92.5 receiving yards (-114)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Mr. Utility

Many bettors were upset to see a competent Carson Wentz last week vs. the Jaguars, but it was his receiver Curtis Samuel that might have been the most surprising.

Making his first start since Week 4 last year, Samuel played 71% of the snaps (55), drew at 27% of the target share, and added five rushes for 17 yards. He had seven touches in the opening drive that he capped off with a 3-yard touchdown. 

Samuel’s usage might have surprised some, but the ones who knew what he did with head coach Ron Rivera in Carolina were unfazed by the output. 

In 2019, he received 107 targets as a third fiddle to Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore and Rivera found creative ways to get the ball into his hands.

Of all the routes Samuel ran in Week 1, Wentz targeted him on an insane 32.4% of them. To compare, Terry McLaurin saw a throw on just 9.4% of his routes ran while also playing 90% of the snaps.

I’m double dipping on Samuel playing indoors and vs. a weak Detroit secondary that finished 30th in dropback EPA last season.

Curtis Samuel Prop: Over 3.5 receptions (-125 at BetMGM)

Curtis Samuel Prop: Over 37.5 receiving yards (-112 at BetRivers)

Target practice

The Derek Carr and Davante Adams connection was impressive in Week 1 as Adams led all receivers with an eye-popping 48.6% target share en route to a 10-catch 144-yard game. 

Carr and Adams did that vs. a Chargers secondary that just held Patrick Mahomes to 235 yards on Thursday night. Now the new duo gets to face the Cardinals, who were roasted for 360 yards by the Kansas City quarterback in the opener. 

The Cardinals blitzed more than any other team in football in Week 1 but generated zero sacks and left their susceptible secondary wide open. Arizona came into the season with one of the weaker coverage groups in football and currently has its No. 2 corner and starting safety on the injury report and listed as questionable for the contest. 

It’s not every day we get value on a receiving total of 92.5 yards, but THE BLITZ is projecting 114 yards as Carr, Adams, and Hunter Renfrow all project as +EV. With a running game that lacks talent and a defense that is missing a corner and a middle linebacker, the Raiders could find themselves passing early and often vs. this soft Arizona secondary, and Adams is the new man in town. 

Davante Adams Prop: Over 92.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Where there's a Williams

Javonte Williams might not have seen enough work in the running game in Week 1 vs. the Seahawks, but his 11 targets and 10 catches weren’t a fluke according to Denver coaches.

After his big performance in the passing game, the coaching staff said that this could be the norm for the explosive back and that he will continue to be a very important piece of the Denver passing attack. 

"The Week 1 loss offered a glimpse of what the Broncos believe [Javonte] Williams can be...a versatile weapon who could be earmarked for a bigger role in the passing game"

Note DEN plays HOU in Week 2, who allowed 10 receptions to IND RBs in Week 1.https://t.co/pHEKku0ERv pic.twitter.com/xJAEriOYz8

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) September 16, 2022

The Athletic's Nick Kosmider also thinks the Broncos will find even more ways to get the ball into Williams’ hands in an easy matchup vs. the Texans who gave up 517 yards to the Colts last week.

Versus the Seahawks, Williams played 31 of his 38 snaps in passing downs and was targeted on 43% of his routes while running a route on 63% of the team’s dropbacks. 

For a guy who caught 10 balls last week with his coaches calling for more, 22.5 receiving yards feels awfully short. This total is already on the move.

Javonte Williams Prop: Over 22.5 receiving yards (-120)

Running scared?

Lamar Jackson didn’t take too many chances on the ground in Week 1 vs. the Jets and finished with just 13 yards on six rushes. Eight of those yards came on scrambles while he had seven yards on four separate designed run plays (he lost two yards on victory kneels).

Not having a contract for next season could certainly be playing a factor here, as well as the game script, but this offense looked out of sorts vs. one of the worst defenses in football and managed just 5.2 yards per play. Kenyan Drake, Justice Hill, and Mike Davis didn’t help either, with their combined 46 rushing yards on 15 carries. 

It’s a little concerning for Jackson, who is still getting hounded about his contract issues and also seems visibly bigger than a season ago, reportedly putting on 15 pounds coming into the season.

Now he faces a fast Miami Dolphins defense that allowed the fourth-fewest opposing quarterback rushing yards a season ago (12.7 per game) and will make things more difficult for him than the Jets did last week.

His rushing yards closed at 60.5 last week and was a no-sweat winner for Under bettors. This week, it sits at 55.5 and is trending downwards with some books at 54.5. 

With the offense possibly struggling to move the sticks after gaining just 274 yards vs. the Jets, and facing an infinitely better defense this week, if Jackson decides to take off, his path to 56 yards won’t be easy. The lack of the designed runs last week is a big factor here. If the Baltimore QB has another easy Under performance, this will become a bigger talking point next week.    

Lamar Jackson Prop: Under 55.5 rushing yards (-108)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Pierce gets a redo

It’s ironic that Dameon Pierce and the Texans face the Broncos this week as Denver fails to give its better back more carries just as Houston did in Week 1. The big difference is that Pierce is getting a bump of confidence from his head coach. 

Rex Burkhead out-snapped Pierce 72% to 28% last week vs. the Colts but Lovie Smith told reporters this week that “we need to get Pierce more touches. That’s what we need to do.” The HC also added that he wished he had gotten the running back more involved. 

Feed Dameon Pierce the rock ???? pic.twitter.com/GDyQWP94xf

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 14, 2022

Sounds like a vote of confidence for the preseason standout who had 7.8 yards per carry in the warm-up games and was named the starter ahead of the opener.

The books have opened his rushing total at 42.5 vs. a Denver defense that is under new control with first-year defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and faced the league’s worst offensive line in the Seahawks last week. 

If Lovie gives Pierce more than 11 carries in a game that could be more competitive than the 10-point line indicates, 50-plus yards is in store for the rookie. His rushing total closed at 50.5 last week in a similar spot vs. a big favorite. THE BLITZ is projecting 48.30 rushing yards and that’s without adding Smith’s comments into the handicap. 

Dameon Pierce Prop: Over 42.5 rushing yards (-115)

Using your tools

Marcus Mariota looked great under center last week vs. a stout New Orleans defense. He totaled 72 yards on the ground but also was competent as a passer thanks to Arthur Smith’s usage of the play-action pass. The Falcons ran play action at the highest rate in Week 1 and the athletic Mariota looked comfortable and has excelled in his career with it.

Some positives from Week 1

-The offensive line looked noticeably better
-Run game/play action will make this offense way more dynamic
-There appears to be a pass rush
-Hawkins/Grant looked very good
-London looks legit
-CP picking up where he left off
-Mariota looked decent

— Miles Garrett (@MilesGarrettTV) September 11, 2022

Drake London, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Kyle Pitts are all elite weapons for the quarterback against a Rams defense that finished with the second-worst dropback EPA and success rate vs. the pass in Week 1. 

Last week, the Bills didn’t have a lot of success on the ground vs. the Rams, which could lead the Falcons to more passing or getting Patterson involved in the short passing game in lieu of running right into that defensive front. 

As a 10-point road underdog, Mariota also has game script on his side and a modest passing total of 213.5 yards, which I’m hitting the Over on. His Over 1.5 passing TDs at +165 also projects well at THE BLITZ.  

Marcus Mariota Prop: Over 213.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Brissett breaks the pocket

Jacoby Brissett did not blow people away with his Week 1 performance vs. the Panthers but he did enough to win. He certainly doesn’t have great speed but managed to scramble three times for eight yards and had one designed run play for another couple. We’re not expecting the Cleveland QB to run for 40 yards, but with a modest rushing total of 9.5, Brissett could cash this Over quickly.

First off, Brissett was one of the slowest quarterbacks to throw the ball, which indicates his slow reads on his receivers. The longer he takes to read his pass-catchers, the higher the chance that his internal clock goes off and he has to move, increasing the chance of a scramble. 

The Jets created some of the lowest pressure numbers last week, which should also benefit Brissett, whose skillset under center should keep this game somewhat close. 

Over his 38 career NFL starts, Brissett is averaging 16 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. His rushing market closed at 10.5 last week and THE BLITZ projects for 19.88 rushing yards. 

Jacoby Brissett Prop: Over 9.5 rush yards (+104 at Caesars)

Season to date: 4-3 SU, +0.34 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)

NFL Week 2 prop betting card

• Curtis Samuel Over 3.5 receptions (-125)
• Curtis Samuel Over 37.5 receiving yards (-112)
• Davante Adams Over 92.5 receiving yards (-114)

   — —

• Javonte Williams Over 22.5 receiving yards (-120)
• Lamar Jackson Under 55.5 rushing yards (-108)

   — —

• Dameon Pierce Over 42.5 rushing yards (-115 )
• Marcus Mariota Over 213.5 passing yards (-115)
• Jacoby Brissett Over 9.5 rush yards (+104)

Pages related to this topic