Looking through the Week 7 odds, I truly feel why fantasy football analysts call this "byemageddon" — there are six teams inactive this week, including some very fun defenses to attack for Overs (Tennessee and Carolina), as well as a few that help when betting the Under on NFL odds (Dallas and the New York Jets).
So, we're left mostly to gleam through either a bunch of games involving the middle of the pack for making NFL picks this week... orrrrrrrr..... we just hammer what few bad defenses are available this week.
That sounds like the better option; so after fading the Giants, the Cardinals, and the Bolts with my first three NFL player props for this Sunday's slate, I'm continuing to attack bad defenses (including picking on one stop unit a second time), with an always-fun Under bet mixed in... just for balance.
Want more great bets for Week 7? Check out our NFL TD prop picks.
Latest NFL prop picks
Walker o75.5 rush yards
White longest rush u11.5 yards
Diggs o6.5 receptions
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Saturday
Walker, Seattle runner
Yesterday I said that, in addition to betting on Tyler Lockett, I could make a strong argument for betting on Kenneth Walker odds too.
Well, guess what? That's exactly what I'm doing, as I'm taking him to go Over his rushing yards total of 75.5 yards against the Arizona Cardinals.
I mean, you did see the Cards' play "defense" against the Rams last week, right? Kyren Williams — a significantly less talented runner than Walker — went off for 158 yards as the Arizona defense continues to stink it up. It has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game to RBs (112.8), while sitting 24th in rush defense EPA and 30th in run stop win rate.
Walker, meanwhile, has been up-and-down in averaging 69 rush yards per game... but he's posted 62+ yards in four of his five games, has seen his snap count increase significantly over the last two weeks, and he entered Week 7 ninth among all RBs in yards after contact and 10th in runs of 10+ yards.
Game script should also work in KW3's favor, as the Seattle Seahawks should be playing with a lead, meaning more runs in the second half for the second-year back, plus with WR D.K. Metcalf now questionable to play, any reduction in the effectiveness of the passing attack should translate to more focus on the ground game.
Some projection models have him as high as 85 rushing yards, with a consensus average just above 77, but looking at how the Cards have been bludgeoned by backs all season, I think Walker should pay off for the Seattle faithful on Sunday.
Prop: Kenneth Walker Over 75.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Dull whites
There's nothing that gets the blood pumping like a good Under sweat, and Rachaad White odds seem like the best avenue of subjecting myself to three hours of rooting for nothingness.
I looked at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB's rushing yards total, but that's already moved from 50.5 to around 46.5, so instead we're getting real deep into the pain train here and going with his longest run to be Under 11.5 yards against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.
Hoo boy.
First, let's talk about White, who is spectacularly unspectacular and:
- Sits 72nd among all RBs with 3.3 yards per carry.
- Has a breakaway percentage of 0.00 (per Pro Football Focus).
- Averages 46.4 rush ypg and has finished below 40 in three of five contests.
- Has negative-70 rushing yards over expected (second-worst in the league), per Next Gen Stats.
Oh, and to top it off, his longest run of the season is 13 yards, and he has just four carries of 10+ yards in 70 attempts.
He's also facing a Falcons defense that, after giving up 154 rush yards in Week 1, has allowed opposing lead backs an average of 56.2 yards per game in five games since, with six total runs of 10+ yards.
That stretch included two games vs. Top-10 rushing attacks — again, White and the Bucs (dead last in rushing yards per game) are the opposite of that.
Because the Falcons offense is also bad, Tampa Bay may stay in this game all four quarters, meaning White could get a full dose of carries and plod his way past his rushing total... so I'm more confident that he will, in fact, plod along all game long and finish the day again without any significantly long runs.
Prop: Rachaad White longest rush Under 11.5 yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Can you Diggs it?
I'm sorry that White section was as painful to read as it was to write, but let's reward you by going back to a superstar that should shred his opponent this week.
Stefon Diggs' odds for his reception line is moving to 7.5 (at plus money) at most operators, but there are still some 6.5s hanging around, so I'm jumping on that as the Buffalo Bills star wideout should punish the division rival New England Patriots.
Diggs has been on a tear all season, posting at least seven catches and 100+ yards in five of his first six games. He's coming off a Sunday nighter against the Giants where he got a whopping 16 targets (turned into 10 catches), and now he gets to feast on a Pats defense that plays man-to-man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the league... but doesn't really have any good man cover corners after star rookie Christian Gonzalez went down with injury.
Meanwhile, Bills QB Josh Allen loves to throw the football, and when facing man coverage he's looking Diggs' way most of the time, with a 29% target rate, and he's sixth in the league in targets, fourth in receptions, and seventh in yards against man coverage.
The weather forecast at Gillette Stadium is calling for wind gusts up to 25 mph, so deep balls could be an issue, meaning Allen could be looking more for short/intermediate passes — areas of the field that account for 52 of his 64 targets and 89% of his 45 catches in 2023.
Diggs has hauled in 7+ catches in four of six games against the Pats since joining the Bills, and with his receiving yards total moving from 84.5 yards to as high as 88.5 now, his reception total (which consensus projections have at about 7.1) is the seemingly safer play.
Prop: Stefon Diggs over 6.5 receptions (-130 at bet365)
NFL prop picks for Friday
Curtis in Command
I said I'm fading bad defenses, so let's start by betting against the New York Giants secondary, where I'm taking the Over on Curtis Samuel's odds to top 3.5 catches on Sunday.
The versatile receiver has somewhat established himself with the Washington Commanders as the No. 2 target behind Terry McLaurin, sitting second on the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.
He's recorded 4+ receptions in three straight games and four of six this season (4.5 per game average), and the reason I like his receptions instead of his yards is that he lines up about 72% of the time in the slot and lives as a short safety blanket; with 18 catches (on 20 targets) either in the 0-9 range or behind the line of scrimmage and sitting dead last on the team in average depth of reception.
He also has been a strong play against man-to-man coverage — of which the G-Men play at the fourth-highest rate (42.8%) — as he's second behind McLaurin in target rate, plus New York is in the Bottom 10 in yards per man coverage target (per Pro Football Focus).
Quarterback Sam Howell also has a passer rating of nearly 100 when targeting Samuel, so I love the idea of him again putting up a modest amount of catches — while getting plus money to boot.
Prop: Curtis Samuel Over 3.5 receptions (+112 at Caesars)
Pop, Lock', and drop it
Man, I could easily argue for betting on Kenneth Walker III or D.K. Metcalf this week (and I still might). Still, my favorite play is veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett's odds, specifically his longest reception to be 22 yards or more.
After lining up in the slot 44.3% of the time and posting a 21.2% deep-target rate over the last three seasons for the Seattle Seahawks (with two of those years totaling fewer than 20 deep looks), he's down to about 38% of snaps in the slot and a 29.4% deep target rate this year, with his 10 deep targets through five games leading all Seattle pass-catchers.
He's also got a great matchup in the Arizona Cardinals, who allow nearly 60% of all deep passes against them to be completed (third-worst in the league) and allow 22.8 yards per deep target — nearly 4.5 yards more than any other defense not named the Denver Broncos (per PFF).
The Cardinals also play zone nearly 82% of the time, ranking 31st in yards per zone coverage target and defensive success rate, and Lockett leads the Seahawks with a 20.6% target rate against zone schemes.
Arizona has coughed up four completions of 21+ yards last week to the Rams and nine 20+ plays over its last three games, while Lockett went for two 30+ yards receptions in his last game and a 23-yarder the week before.
Prop: Tyler Lockett longest reception Over 21.5 yards (-115 at bet365)
Healthy grain
At some point, Patrick Mahomes has to pick someone he likes to throw to (aside from Taylor Swift's boyfriend), and this week we're going to see a rookie WR emerge as that guy for the Kansas City Chiefs — so I'm betting on Rashee Rice's odds to go Over his receiving yardage total.
Rice has already been the preferential target for Mahomes among the Chiefs' WRs, with a 30.3% target rate (that would sit among the highest for any receiver in the league) and a nearly 60% target rate as the first read (per The Athletic)... the problem is he just hasn't been on the field that much.
He's played more than 50% of the offensive snaps just once: A Week 3 blowout win over Chicago, where he put up 59 yards. However, he played 49% of the snaps last Thursday against Denver — his second-highest total of the season — and responded with a career-high 72 receiving yards.
Now, there's reason to believe really go past the 50% mark against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 7, as Justin Watson — who was third among WRs in routes run and ran about 44% more routes than Rice — is sidelined with an elbow injury.
"But Jared: The Chiefs just traded for familiar face Mecole Hardman."
Oh no... anyway.
Hardman's return shouldn't deter anyone, because the fact is that Rice is the most dangerous WR on this roster: He's tied for 20th among all pass catchers in average separation (per Next Gen Stats), he is sixth among all WR with 7.1 average YAC, and he faces a Chargers secondary that is also a great matchup for him.
The Bolts play zone defense about 80% of the time, ranking 30th in yards per zone coverage target and 31st in explosive play rate (18.5%) in zone, while Rice leads KC with a 32.3% target rate, 20 catches, and 237 yards against zone defenses — plus the Chargers allow the third-most yards per game to slot receivers... and Rice lines up in the slot 55.7% of the time.
Most projections have Rice in the 42-46 yard range, and he could possibly get that in one play on Sunday. Once the breakout comes, yardage props in the 30s for him will disappear — and I think this is the week.
Prop: Rashee Rice Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
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NFL Week 7 prop betting card
- Kenneth Walker Over 75.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Rachaad White longest rush Under 11.5 yards (-114)
- Stefon Diggs over 6.5 receptions (-130)
- -
- Curtis Samuel Over 3.5 receptions (+112)
- Tyler Lockett longest reception Over 21.5 yards (-115)
- Rashee Rice Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110)
Last week: 2-4
Season to date: 18-17, -1.16 units
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