Bad weeks happen.
It's inevitable... and it was my fate last week as I went an unsightly 1-5 with my NFL player props.
Guy goes down with an injury in the first quarter? Check. Losing on a half-yard hook (when they needed just one over the final three quarters)? Yup, that happened. Picking a dude that just stunk it up? When it rains it monsoons.
Thankfully, the Week 9 odds board provides a fresh slate, a chance at redemption, and a way to make some NFL picks that can get me back into Gamblor's good graces.
I started things off by banking on the NFL odds for three offensive stars (well, two stars and a quarterback) because, well, why not get back to basics, but I'm finishing off my favorite NFL props for Week 9 with a little bit of creativity — a tight end that could shine with a backup QB, a running back that can't run, and then backing a backup RB.
Latest NFL prop picks
Moss anytime TD (+175 at DraftKings)
White o27.5 rec yards (-110 at bet365)
Pitts o41.5 rec yards (-110 at bet365)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Saturday
Moss is the man
Everybody is jumping back on the Jonathan Taylor bandwagon, as the Indianapolis Colts' RB has 30 carries and 170 yards over the last two games... but let's not abandon all hope for Zack Moss — you know, the guy with the third-most rushing yards in the league — and betting on Zack Moss' odds for a touchdown, which is mispriced... in our favor.
Despite Taylor getting more work each passing week, Moss has still basically matched him in the number of carries; which extends to runs inside the Red Zone. Yet, Moss is priced as long as +175 to get a TD whereas Taylor's best price is -118.
That's a massive discrepancy for two guys with a seemingly equal opportunity, especially when Moss has found paydirt in three of his last four games and faces a Carolina Panthers defense that should allow everybody to get theirs on Sunday.
Carolina is the league's second-worst run defense, allowing 127 yards per game to RBs, 5.0 yards per carry, and an average of two touchdowns per game to running backs.
Game script should also help Moss' this weekend, as Indy could hold a large lead come the fourth quarter, leading Colts Head Coach Shane Steichen to opt towards leaning more on Moss (as Taylor continues to incrementally build his reps), giving some good garbage time opportunities.
This bet can be found as short as +125 but DraftKings offering a +175 makes it even more appealing in the most advantageous situation possible for a "backup" to score.
Prop: Zack Moss anytime TD (+175 at DraftKings)
Throwin' 'Chaad
We all know that Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White can't run.
In his defense, I'm not sure prime Warrick Dunn could run behind this mess of an offensive line, but the reality is the Bucs' No. 1 RB has topped 40 yards just twice in eight games and he's finished with single-digit carries in two of his last three games.
The reason he's running less, however, is because head coach Todd Bowles is getting him involved by greatly improving his usage in the passing game: Over the last two games he's posted a team-high 13 receptions (on 13 targets) and 135 receiving yards (including more than star WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin).
The short pass has become the team's de facto run game — and I mean short passes, as his average depth of target during this span is -0.4 yards — but it's been effective as White's 135 receiving yards in those games is almost 40% more than his combined receiving yardage total from his first five games... and it's almost half of his rushing total for the entire season.
Now, do I think White is going to put up 60-70 receiving yards every game? Of course not, but considering he averaged about 20 yards per game through the air per game before this outburst, I feel that Rachaad White's odds of topping 27.5 receiving yards against the Houston Texans are very attainable.
White has posted 3+ receptions in six straight games and sits third among all RBs in receptions and fourth in RB receiving yards in the league, plus the Texans allow the seventh-most receiving yards per game to RBs (42.3).
Houston is also currently third in run-stop win rate, so White & Co. will struggle to gain traditional yards on the ground, but they've unlocked an ability to get consistent positive yards from their lead back, and I don't see it stopping in Week 9.
Prop: Rachaad White Over 27.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pitt stop
Betting the Over on Kyle Pitts odds has been one of the most frustrating (and disappointing) exercises through the first half of the 2023 season, but with the Atlanta Falcons benching struggling QB Desmond Ridder for journeyman Taylor Heinicke, there is a glimmer of hope for the former fifth-overall pick.
Wait: Drake London — the only other legitimate threat among Falcons' pass-catchers — is out with a groin injury? The glimmer of hope has converted to me jumping head-first into the Pitts hype train (again) and betting the Over on his yardage line of 41.5 yards.
Even with Ridder (and his inability to, well, throw a football) under center for most of the year, Pitts still managed to record 41+ yards in five of eight games. Heinicke isn't a star — or even good — by any means, but is a more competent passer than Ridder at this moment, highlighted by Heinicke coming in to start the second half of last week's loss to Tennessee:
| Heinicke 2H | Week 8 vs Titans | Ridder 1H (2023 average) |
|---|---|---|
| 172 | Passing yards | 71 (212.2) |
| 8.3 | Yards per attempt | 5.9 (7.1) |
| 9.7 | Intended air yards/attempt | 7.9 (7.8) |
| 12.4 | ADOT | 8.8 (8.2) |
Again: Heinicke is not some revelation that's going to magically sling the ball all over the field and make the Dirty Birds an elite pass offense, but they go from one of the least threatening aerial attacks to one that can at least be functional — and Pitts gets to go after a Minnesota Vikings defense that has allowed the likes of George Kittle (78 yards) and Travis Kelce (67 yards) to have successful days.
Minnesota plays zone coverage at a Top-10 rate (per Pro Football Focus) and is the most blitz-happy defense in the league, sending extra rushers a league-leading 52.7% of opposing QB dropbacks. This means Heinicke will need to get rid of the ball quickly behind an offensive line that is 25th in pass-block win rate — and this is where the absence of London comes in.
Without the standout WR on the field, Pitts will be the first read more often than not, as his 22.7% target rate against zone was second on the team (just behind London) and he is 26th overall in the league for targets against zone schemes.
Some industry projections forecast as much as 52 yards for Pitts, with an average consensus of 48.4 yards, and with a QB that can (and will) throw a little bit more, I feel he should be able to top his receiving total of 41.5 yards on Sunday.
Prop: Kyle Pitts Over 41.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
NFL prop picks for Friday
Raider of the lost defense
New York Giants running backs ran the football 41 times last week against a solid Jets defense. Yes, it was a result of Tommy DeVito playing the majority of the game at QB (and coach Brian Daboll literally refusing to pass the ball across the line of scrimmage), but those 41 carries resulted in 141 rushing yards in the game — and I'm betting on Saquon Barkley odds this Sunday against a bad Las Vegas Raiders defense.
Despite posting a season-low 3.56 yards per carry in Week 8, Barkley managed 128 yards in what truly was the most obvious of obvious running situations. The Giants will have some semblance of a balanced offense again with QB Daniel Jones expected to return... and then you did see the Raiders defense on Monday right?
They allowed a whopping 222 rushing yards to the Detroit Lions, which comes on the heels of allowing 173 yards to the Chicago Bears the week prior. Las Vegas could get a boost from the mid-week change in head coach (and QB)... but I don't see how that fixes a defense that allows the third-most rushing yards per game and sixth-highest yards per attempt, while ranking 30th in rush defense EPA and dead last in run stop win rate.
Barkley's rushing line is 75.5 yards, a number he's topped in each of his last three games since coming back from injury, and the offensive line has played slightly better than the dumpster fire it was earlier in the year.
Saquon is the Giants' best offensive weapon and he's facing a terrible defense. Let's not overthink this.
Prop: Saquon Barkley Over 75.5 rush yards (+100 at Pinnacle)
Top gear
It's not pretty, but the Over has been cashing on Derek Carr's odds for his passing yards (quite easily) as of late... and I'm expecting it to deliver again this Sunday vs. a terrible Chicago Bears secondary.
The New Orleans Saints QB has faced totals of 230.5, 235.5, and 240.5 over his last three weeks, but posted 301+ yards in each game (321.3 ypg average) and he should be able to eclipse the 300-yard mark again on Sunday... or at least post a total enough to top his yardage prop that is in the mid-240s.
His 964 yards, 132 pass attempts, and 9.4 average depth of target all rank second among QBs (who played more than one game) during these three weeks, while he also leads the league with 19 deep pass attempts in this stretch as he has a trio of dangerous wide receivers (and an elite receiving RB) at his disposal.
As for the Bears, they have allowed QBs to throw for 269.9 yards per game (fifth-most in NFL) and have been particularly bad on the road, yielding 326.5 pass ypg and a 108.1 QB rating — compared to 213.3 and a 93.5 rating at home.
Chicago also mostly plays zone defense, ranking 27th in yards allowed per zone coverage snap (per Pro Football Focus), meaning Carr's weapons should have no problem finding open seams and giving the veteran QB juicy passing lanes.
Again: We're keeping it simple here, with a hot QB against a suspect pass defense.
Prop: Derek Carr Over 245.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Lamb racks
Cedarious DeLeon Lamb is him right now.
I know it. You know it... and QB Dak Prescott definitely knows it, as he's targeted him 21 times in the Dallas Cowboys' last two games... and Lamb responded by catching 19 of those passes for 275 yards.
In fact, among receivers with at least 25 targets this season, Lamb's 82.1% catch rate is tied for the best in the NFL. While his receptions total (6.5) is intriguing in a massive divisional showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday, the CeeDee Lamb odds I'm more excited to target is his receiving yards total — which is a modest 72.5 vs. a Philly secondary that has been injured and much-maligned this season.
The Eagles have allowed the second-most yards per game (192.1) to WR this season, with the opponent's most-targeted receiver averaging 9.1 catches and 91 yards.
Among the 31 receivers currently with at least 100 receiving snaps from the slot, he ranks eighth with a near-20% target rate, fourth in yards per slot route run, first in explosive pass plays, and third in missed tackles. That gives Lamb, who spends about two-thirds of his time in the slot, a great matchup against an Eagles secondary that is 20th in yards per slot coverage snap and 30th in explosive plays allowed to slot receivers (per PFF).
Consensus projections range as high as 88 yards for Lamb and average around 77.2 yards for the Cowboys' star. Running will be difficult against Philly, so it's going to be Dak & Co. doing damage through the air on Sunday... meaning CeeDee should be in line for another active (and successful) Sunday.
Prop: CeeDee Lamb Over 72.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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NFL Week 9 prop betting card
- Zack Moss anytime TD (+175)
- Rachaad White Over 27.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Kyle Pitts over 41.5 receiving yards (-110)
- -
- Saquon Barkley Over 75.5 rush yards (+100)
- Derek Carr Over 245.5 passing yards (-110)
- CeeDee Lamb Over 72.5 receiving yards (-115)
Last week: 1-5
Season to date: 20-21, -4.11 units
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