NFL Best Bets and Player Props for the Wild Card Round: Fade Singletary Amid Game Script

The Wild Card weekend is here, and I’ve rounded out my NFL prop bets with a pair of rushing Unders despite positive game scripts and getting in on Minnesota's high projected passing volume. 

I break it all down in my best NFL prop picks for Wild Card weekend below.

Latest NFL Wild Card prop picks

• James Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Mixon Under 57.5 rushing yards (-114)
• Singletary Under 46.5 rushing yards (-110)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday's Wild Card games

Richie Rich

I’ve already hit the Daniel Jones Under rushing prop, which is based on the handicap that this is an easy Minnesota team to pass against with Jones finding open receivers — one of which will be Richie James.

James posted season-highs in targets (11), catches (eight), and yards (90) vs. the Vikings in Week 16, and over his last four games has commanded a team-high 25% target share, where he's averaging 6.5 catches for 67.25 yards. 

His receiving total of 47.5 yards is just three yards more than Isaiah Hodgin’s and shorter than Darius Slayton’s 50.5-yard total. James has the best matchup of the three receivers as he runs his routes out of the slot where this Vikings pass defense is the weakest with slot corner Chandon Sullivan.

Sullivan has allowed a league-high 72 receptions on 91 targets (79% completion rate). Regular slot corner Cameron Dantzler was a DNP on Thursday.

James is benefiting greatly from better quarterback play as Jones ranks seventh in completion rate over expected (CPOE) since Week 14. The New York QB also set a career-high in completions (30) vs. the Vikings a few weeks ago.

There has been a slight increase in James' yardage total since Week 16 (40.5 yards) but with the massive 25% target share, an elite matchup, game script, and an indoor setting in his favor, I’d play this Over up to 51.5.

Richie James Prop: Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110)

Average Joe

The Bengals enter Sunday night’s game as a 9.5-point favorite vs. an offense that will struggle to eclipse its team total of 14.5 points. Baltimore has to keep this game close and even with the game script on his side, this is a negative matchup. And with Samaje Perine getting more snaps, Joe Mixon will struggle on the ground, which has me reaching for the Under on his 57.5-yard rushing total.

Since returning from injury four games ago, Mixon has begun to cede snaps to his backup whose 4.1 yards per carry is better than Mixon’s 3.9. 

Baltimore allows just 78.3 rushing yards to opposing running backs per game, which is the fifth-best mark in football. Teams have had more success involving their backs in the passing game vs. Baltimore which allows 5.9 RB receptions per game, a Top-5 mark in the NFL. We saw this in Week 18, as Mixon gained just 27 yards on 11 carries vs. Baltimore but had five receptions on five targets. 

Mixon also struggles to break big runs and of the 14 running backs who have at least 200 carries, he ranks dead last in carries of 10+ yards (one for every 12.5 carries). Now he has to run against the No. 3 rush defense (EPA/rush) since Week 9 and do so without his starting left tackle (La’el Collins) and left guard (Alex Cappa).

The health of Calais Campbell is making things worse, as the defender returned last week and is a Top-10 interior lineman. 

The possible positive game script is a big reason for the 57.5-yard total but this offense and Joe Burrow have not had a lot of success vs. the Ravens this season. He's posted two sub-220-yard passing games this year vs. the divisional rival and his two worst passer ratings since Week 2. 

Let’s fade Mixon and his 3.9 yards per carry.

Joe Mixon Prop: Under 57.5 rushing yards (-114)

Singling out Singletary

Despite the Buffalo Bills being big favorites on Sunday, this is not a typical team that leans on the run when playing with the lead. 

They’re passing at 59% on the season which ranks 15th in the league but considering they’ve played with the lead more than they’ve trailed, this number is high in terms of positive game scripts.

Teams also don’t run much vs. the Dolphins (38%) as their pass defense ranks 26th in EPA/dropback and 25th in DVOA. Starting corners Xavien Howard and Keon Crossen both rank in the Bottom 25 at the position, per Pro Football Focus, and allow over 14 yards per reception.

The Dolphins hold opposing running backs to 68.2 rushing yards per game on the season which is the third-lowest mark behind the 49ers and Titans. 

The Buffalo rushing game is also divided, as Devin Singletary cedes rushing attempts to Josh Allen, James Cook, and Nyheim Hines, and with only so many rushing attempts to go around, Singletary will struggle to hit the Over on his rushing total of 46.5.

This total closed at 40.5 yards in the Week 15 meeting where Singletary had 42 yards on just 3.6 yards per carry. Passing conditions also look great at Highmark Stadium with wind projected at 2.5 mph.   

Devin Singletary Prop: Under 46.5 rushing yards (-110)

No need to run

Daniel Jones’ rushing total of 40.5 yards is a seven-week high, and ties the highest it’s been all season (Week 11 vs. Detroit). This market closed at 30.5 yards in the Week 16 meeting where the New York quarterback ran just four times, which he turned into 34 yards thanks to a long rush of 14. 

With the state of the Minnesota passing defense, which Jones ripped apart for 334 passing yards in that meeting, there isn’t much need to take off. 

On the season, the Vikings are averaging just 20.1 rushing yards on 3.6 carries to opposing signal-callers. Even Justin Fields had one of his lowest-volume rushing days vs. this defense with an eight-rush, 43-yard performance in Week 3 where he also passed for 200 yards — something he accomplished just twice all season.

With an inflated total, and a pass defense that even Jones can carve, the Under on the quarterback's rushing total is strong play at 40.5, and is something I’d play to 37.5. With cornerback Cameron Dantzler and safety Harrison Smith banged up, the most generous playoff pass defense (280 yards per game at home) is one Jones can beat in the air and not have to get creative with on the ground.

Daniel Jones Prop: Under 40.5 rushing yards (-110)

NFL prop picks for Saturday's Wild Card games

Make Hasty

The Jaguars might have a better time running the ball vs. the Chargers Saturday, as Los Angeles ranked 27th in EPA/rush on the season, and 28th since Week 10. Teams love to run against the Bolts, as the Chargers had the ninth-highest run percentage against (45.6%). The combined record of the eight teams higher than them was 45-73, and many of those runs were game-script dependant, leaving the Chargers as one of the most run-on winning teams in football.

The Jaguars have an average run game ranking in the middle of the pack in DVOA and EPA/rush, but with how well the Chargers’ pass defense has been down the stretch (No. 4 EPA/dropback since Week 10) and the frequency in defending the run, Travis Etienne and JaMycal Hasty will have a big role on Saturday.

Since the Jaguars traded away James Robinson, Etienne has dominated the snap share, but Hasty has seen an increase in snap percentage in four straight weeks, and has 16 carries for 48 yards and a score over the last three weeks. His rushing total sits at 10.5 yards which, at L.A.’s 5.4 yards per carry average, would require just two carries from the backup tailback. 

Both backs could have a big day vs. this rush defense, but Hasty could easily double this total in production with a positive-to-neutral game script predicted. 

In the Week 3 meeting, Robinson (17 carries) and Etienne (13 carries) combined for 145 rushing yards. Backup rushers are averaging six carries for 25.4 yards vs. this defense on the season, with a median of 12 yards. 

JaMycal Hasty Prop: Over 10.5 rushing yards (-105)  

The Home Deebo

As heavy 9.5-point home favorites and facing the No. 32 rush defense in EPA/rush since Week 10, the 49ers’ rushing game is going to be worked to the bones on Saturday. Add in Brock Purdy making his first playoff start and facing a team that has already seen him, and San Francisco could see 40 rushing attempts this weekend.

The Niners had plenty of practice rushing the ball over the final three weeks of the NFL season, as no playoff team rushed the ball more frequently than Kyle Shanahan’s team at 51.7%. With Christian McCaffrey's rushing total at 76.5 yards, heading north, and approaching his season-high of 80.5, there is value in the secondary rushing markets.

Deebo Samuel got back to the field in Week 18 after missing three games. He played 68% of the snaps and handled the workload fine. His rushing total is just 10.5 yards, and was as high as 30.5 earlier in the season. 

"They came out great," Shanahan said after Week 18’s win regarding Samuel and Elijah Mitchell. "First, they came out healthy, which is very important. With them being able to come out healthy, I thought it was great that they both got to play some and get back in there, and I think it will help them going into this week."

Now we have a healthy Samuel, who can complement this running game and averaged 3.4 carries for 19 yards per game before the injury. He also had at least four carries in half of the games he played with McCaffrey on the team.

He had 27 carries for 239 yards in last year's playoffs, and another 102 yards rushing in three playoff games in the 2019-20 season. 

With no Jordyn Brooks for the Seahawks – who is arguably the team’s best defender – as well as some rain in the forecast, it’s going to be a big day on the ground, and a healthy Samuel will get his chances. His 25+ is currently +280, and 50+ is +1,450 at bet365.

Deebo Samuel Prop: Over 10.5 rushing yards (-115)

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