The last time the Buffalo Bills met the Cincinnati Bengals, they were sent packing from the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Buffalo is looking for revenge when it visits Cincinnati tonight for Sunday Night Football in Week 9 odds of the NFL season.
Which Bengals team will show up in prime time?
If the NFL odds are telling us anything, bookmakers expect Cincy’s recent run of strong showings to continue with the home side as a short favorite.
The Bengals have bounced back from a slow start with quarterback Joe Burrow healthy and the defense finding their form during the team’s three-game winning streak. The Bills, on the other hand, have traded wins and losses in their last four outings but enjoy a mini-bye in Week 9 after winning last Thursday night.
I run down the SNF odds and give my best NFL picks for Bills vs. Bengals.
Be sure to also check out our favorite Bills vs. Bengals props along with our breakdown of Joe Burrow odds!
Bills vs Bengals odds
Bills vs Bengals predictions
The Buffalo Bills defense is starting to come apart, due to injuries to key contributors like linebacker Matt Milano, corner Tre'Davious White, and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones.
These missing pieces have seen the Bills slip from No. 4 in EPA allowed per play in the first four weeks to 29th in that advanced metric since Week 5. Most of those woes have come defending the pass, with Buffalo giving up the sixth-highest success rate to rival passers in the past four games.
This road trip to face the Cincinnati Bengals comes at a really bad time, especially with Joe Burrow & Co. finding their form.
Burrow looks like his old self again and just shredded the 49ers defense for 283 yards and three touchdowns with an 87.5% completion rate. If that same Joe Burrow shows up on Sunday Night Football, this will be the best quarterback the Bills defense has faced all season.
Buffalo is already running thin in the secondary with White listed out and CB Kaiir Elam on the IR. Safety Damar Hamlin, who has been limited to special teams since suffering a scary cardiac arrest in Cincinnati last January, is questionable, and recently acquired CB Rasul Douglas is on the fence for Week 9.
Buffalo will have its primary focus set on covering Bengals star wideout Ja’Marr Chase, which could leave No. 2 wide receiver Tee Higgins with advantageous matchups. Higgins is coming off a solid day against the Niners, catching five of six targets for 69 yards, including a 33-yard reception.
Higgins had been slowed by a rib injury that cost him Week 5’s game against Arizona and returned for two grabs on four targets and 20 yards versus Seattle in Week 6. The Bengals had a bye in Week 7 and Higgins looked much more effective against San Francisco, getting 42 snaps and topping his receiving yard prop of 45.5 yards.
His Week 9 receiving yards prop gets a slight bump to 48.5 yards but player projections are confident he’ll surpass that bar. All major models have Higgins topping 50 yards with some forecasts as high as 75 yards. My number for Higgins comes out just shy of 63 yards — more than enough to top his modest yardage prop Sunday night.
My best bet: Tee Higgins Over 48.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Bills vs Bengals same-game parlay
Tee Higgins Over 48.5 receiving yards
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 touchdown passes
Dalton Kincaid Over 34.5 receiving yards
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Higgins will beat up on a thin Bills secondary that has ranked among the worst passing defenses since Week 5, and it helps that Burrow is back and making it rain touchdowns with eight scoring strikes over his last three games.
Meanwhile, Dalton Kincaid is Buffalo’s lone healthy tight end. His projections have him flirting with 50-plus receiving yards vs. a Cincy defense allowing the eighth most yards to the position.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bills vs Bengals spread and Over/Under analysis
This Sunday nighter was a highlight of the 2023 schedule release back in the spring and the offseason odds listed Cincinnati as 1.5-point home favorites in Week 9.
The look-ahead line before Week 8 had Buffalo as a 1.5-point road fave, but with Cincinnati slapping San Francisco 31-17 last weekend, the official Week 9 spread hit the board between -1.5 and -2.5 for the Bengals.
As of Thursday afternoon, that discrepancy in the market is still there with the point spread ranging from Cincinnati -1 to as high as -2.5.
My NFL power ratings produced an unadjusted line of Bengals -1.42 and Covers Consensus is showing 67% of early picks siding with Cincy.
The Bengals have the rest of the AFC nervous after turning their season around. Cincinnati is on a three-game winning streak and came off the bye with a bang, taking down the 49ers 31-17 in Santa Clara last weekend.
Burrow’s calf injury appears to be a thing of the past and the quarterback has this offense humming in recent weeks, with the Bengals putting up the fourth-highest points per play average (0.423) over their last three outings.
Since Week 5, the Bengals have ranked among the elite in advanced metric team tiers, sitting sixth in EPA per play and third in EPA allowed per play. Cincinnati’s defense is making a big difference, allowing a total of only 50 points during this winning run.
The Bills need life from their stop unit if they’re going to avoid another loss to the Bengals. Buffalo’s defense has taken some bad hits in terms of season-ending injuries and it’s starting to show. The defense is 29th in EPA allowed since Week 5 and allowed a pop-gun Tampa Bay attack to score late and spoil the cash for Bills spread-backers last Thursday night.
Buffalo will lean into Josh Allen and the offense to trade shots with Cincinnati on Sunday night. The Bills remain among the offensive elite in the NFL — No. 3 in DVOA — but were bottled up by the Bengals in last year’s Divisional Round matchup. Buffalo managed only 10 points and Allen went 25 for 42 for 264 yards and an interception.
Allen has been nursing a shoulder injury the past two games and reaggravated it during Week 8’s win over the Bucs. However, he had 10 days between games to rest due to Buffalo playing the mid-week showcase last Thursday.
That past playoff meeting played Under the total of 48.5 points while this Week 9 game opened with the O/U at 46 points. Early action on the Over drove this total to as high as 49.5 points, with Covers Consensus showing 58% of picks on the Over as of Thursday.
Cincinnati enters Week 9 with a 3-4 O/U record on the season but has gone 2-1 O/U during this winning streak. The Bengals offense is firing on all cylinders with Burrow healthy, so don’t put too much weight into their season-long results.
As for the Bills, they own a 3-5 O/U count so far in 2023. Buffalo has played some pretty bad offenses along the way, facing the likes of the Bucs, Patriots, and Giants in the last three games. They are 1-3 O/U in their four games away from Orchard Park.
Bills vs Bengals betting trend to know
The Bills are 11-17 to the Over as road underdogs under head coach Sean McDermott (since 2017), cashing in for the Under at a 61% clip. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Bengals.
Bills vs Bengals game info
| Location: | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, November 5, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | Bengals -2.5, 47 |
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