Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs has turned into one of the NFL's best rivalries, and the franchises will meet again today with a trip to Super Bowl 59 on the line.
Whether you think Buffalo will build on their regular-season victory over K.C. or that the Chiefs will once again get the better of the Bills when it counts, you'll want to consult our free NFL picks for this January 26 showdown.
Check out our NFL player props, SGP picks, and more below.
AFC Championship odds and time
- Spread: Chiefs -2
- Moneyline: Bills +110 | Chiefs -130
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Time: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.
- Network: CBS
Bills vs Chiefs best bet, player props, SGP
Bills vs Chiefs best bet
- James Cook Over 54.5 rushing yards (-135
)
At the center of the Bills' rushing playbook is James Cook. Cook marched for 120 yards against the Broncos and 67 yards versus the Ravens — two of the elite run-stop units in the NFL this season. He won’t find as much pushback from the Chiefs on Sunday night.
Bills vs Chiefs props
- Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing TDs (-175 )
- Travis Kelce Over 70.5 receiving yards (-110 )
- Tyler Bass Over 1.5 field goals made (+115 )
Bills vs Chiefs anytime TD picks
MVP frontrunner Josh Allen scored a dozen rushing touchdowns during the regular season and scampered for two touchdowns in the Bills' Divisional Round victory over Baltimore.
Travis Kelce, meanwhile, leads Kansas City in playoff targets (8), receptions (7), and two big plays of 20+, including a 49-yard grab against Houston. The Bills allowed 23 passing TDs within 20 yards during the regular season.
Patrick Mahomes prop
- Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 INTs (-120 )
Patrick Mahomes completed a career-high 83.6% of his quick passes this season, which led the NFL. In his last three games, he has averaged a 2.47 second time to throw. He did not throw a single interception in any of those three contests.
Meanwhile, the Bills allow the fourth-highest completion percentage and eighth-highest success rate on quick passes this season.
Josh Allen prop
- Josh Allen anytime TD (-110 )
Allen is going to need to make some plays with his legs for the Buffalo Bills to keep up. That’s something he’s been doing plenty of this season.
Allen scored a pair of one-yard touchdown runs last week against the Ravens and is Buffalo’s most dangerous weapon near the goal line. At 6-foot-5 and 237 pounds, he’s a load to take down.
The Bills quarterback has rushed for a touchdown in seven of his last nine starts and has found the end zone with his legs in four of his last five playoff appearances.
Travis Kelce prop
- Travis Kelce 75+ receiving yards (-105 )
Dating back to the Chiefs' first Super Bowl title, Kelce has averaged 8.2 receptions for 94.6 yards on 9.8 targets, which includes an absolutely dominant 8.7 receptions for 96.3 yards across three playoff games against the Bills.
Even better for Sunday, Buffalo limped down the stretch with the third-highest dropback EPA allowed and highest dropback success rate allowed while surrendering the sixth-highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks across its final nine regular-season games.
Bills vs Chiefs SGP
James Cook 50+ rushing yards
Bills +2
Under 47.5
Cook’s forecasts all sit well above 50 yards rushing, and the Bills have been focused on the ground game in the playoffs.
Josh Allen and the Bills have their best shot of “slaying the dragon” this season. This offense has the diversity to pick apart this K.C. defense.
These two offenses aren’t the high-flying attacks we’ve seen in the past. This game could end up a lowing-scoring grinder, and I’ll go Under with the total on the high side of the key number.
Get more analysis from the Sharp 600 podcast!
Get more Conference Championship picks (and best bets) from Jason Logan — and co-host Todd Fuhrman — by checking out the Sharp 600 podcast!
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