The Buffalo Bills are back at Arrowhead Stadium for the first time since last season’s epic playoff game.
The difference Sunday is that the visitors are a 2.5-point favorite and Josh Allen and the passing game have a great matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs secondary.
Here are my free NFL picks and predictions for Bills vs. Chiefs on Sunday, October 16.
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Bills vs Chiefs best odds
Bills vs Chiefs picks and predictions
The Bills come into Sunday's showdown with the No.1 passing offense in football in EPA/dropback and success rate. They also get the services of slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie, as he has cleared concussion protocol.
Josh Allen will have a ton of weapons at his disposal vs. a below-average pass defense that could be without starting corner Rashad Fenton. The other starting corner, L’Jarius Sneed is elite at stopping the run but has allowed 24 completions on 31 targets (77%) and a 117 passing rating when targeted.
With Allen looking to avenge two straight playoff losses at Arrowhead and getting an abbreviated start last week after eviscerating the Steelers, this could be an epic Allen performance with a great matchup.
Allen took zero sacks and had just one QB hit last week vs. the Steelers. His O-line has been solid this season, as he's had to make just 13 pressured throws (31st), per PlayerProfiler. He’s completing 70% of his passes from a clean pocket, and more importantly, the protection is giving his receivers time to get downfield. In fact, the Buffalo QB has a 57% completion percentage on deep balls through five games.
If the Chiefs blitz Allen (29.1% rate), it could be an even bigger game as Allen ranks third in completion percentage vs. man coverage compared to 23rd vs. zone coverage.
Allen’s passing total opened at 291.5, which is a season-high, but not high enough to get us off the Over. THE BLITZ is projecting nearly 310 passing yards, which is still 20 yards short of his season average.
My best bet: Allen Over 291.5 passing yards (-110)
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Bills vs Chiefs spread analysis
Patrick Mahomes has never been a home underdog as a starter, but after opening at -1 on the look-ahead, the Bills re-opened at -2 Sunday night (hitting as high as -3). The books were responsible for moving the line in favor of the Bills from the look-ahead to the opener, as Circa opened with Buffalo at -2.5 Sunday night.
That’s a lot of respect the oddsmakers have for the Bills here, as the Chiefs closed as -2.5 favorites in last season’s playoff meeting. However, the move is certainly warranted.
The Chiefs didn’t look great early vs. the Raiders in primetime last week and trailed 17-0 with five minutes remaining in the second quarter. They were also gifted points in Week 4 vs. the Bucs as Tampa fumbled the opening kickoff, and Brady even coughed the ball up on his own 36-yard line in the second quarter. The week before that, the Chiefs lost to Matt Ryan and the Colts.
Mahomes and the offense have been great, running the No. 2 offense in football (behind Buffalo), but it’s the defense that separates these two teams.
With plenty of passing projected, the Bills have the edge in the secondary and are likely the reason the books and sharps were quick to back the visitors.
The Chiefs' passing defense ranks outside the Top 15 in EPA/dropback and success rate. Mike Evans and Davante Adams have had big games in back-to-back weeks, and now Fenton is in danger of missing Sunday’s matchup after missing practice on Thursday.
The defense has just one interception to 12 touchdowns allowed and is allowing a 69.3% completion rate which is third-worst in the league with a 105.5 passer rating against — fifth-worst in football.
That’s in sharp contrast to the Bills, who lead the league in passer rating against (67.8), have a three-to-eight TD/INT ratio, and puts a ton of guys in coverage with one of the lowest blitz percentages in football. They also have two of the best coverage linebackers in football.
If the Bills can play mistake-free football, their edge on defense is worth the play, even at -3.
Bills vs Chiefs Over/Under analysis
It's no surprise that this meeting has the highest total on the board at 53.5. When these two teams met in the playoffs last season at Arrowhead, the total closed at 54.0 in the colder month of January.
That game saw 25 points scored in the final two minutes as both quarterbacks put on a show in the 42-36 Kansas City overtime win. Both quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards, three touchdowns (zero interceptions), and completed over 70% of their passes. Each of them also ran for at least 65 yards.
The performances were impressive, but they certainly can be repeatable Sunday. These are the two best offenses in EPA/play and EPA/dropback by a wide margin. Buffalo will get McKenzie back, and he has the deepest talent at the pass-catching positions in football. At the same time, the Chiefs come into the matchup healthy at wide receiver, with every WR getting in a full practice Wednesday.
The Chiefs’ pass defense could be exposed vs. Allen. As a unit, the Kansas City pass defense is allowing a 105.5 QB rating and has a 12/1 TD/INT ratio on the season.
This is a KC pass defense that gave up two long TDs last week, plus the two pass interference class for nearly 50 yards.
The Buffalo pass defense has great numbers on the season, but Mahomes has passed for over 700 yards and six TDs vs. the Bills over the last two postseason meetings.
Looking at the pace of play, both teams sit in the Top 10 when trailing this season, while neither team ranks in the bottom half when leading.
Even with projected double-digit winds, both passing offenses are set up for a big day. The Bills and Chiefs combined for 8.7 yards per play last season, and even a decrease to 7.0 ypp would still be higher than the Bills’ league-leading 6.7 ypp mark this season.
The Chiefs' kicking game could also get a boost with the possible return of kicker Harrison Butker. In his absence, the Chiefs have left plenty of points on the field.
Bills vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Chiefs.
Bills vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Sunday, October 16, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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