The top and the bottom of the AFC East meet in East Rutherford when the winless New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills in Week 7.
Despite Buffalo playing on a short week after its home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs Monday, the NFL betting odds have the Bills as big 13.5-point road favorites at MetLife Stadium. New York could have top quarterback Sam Darnold back under center after missing two games with a shoulder injury.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Bills vs. Jets on October 25.
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets betting preview
Weather
The forecast for East Rutherford is calling for temperatures in the low-50s with sunny skies and winds blowing up to 7 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bills: Josh Norman CB (Out), John Brown WR (Out), Dawson Knox TE (Out), Cody Ford T (Out).
Jets: Jamison Crowder WR (Out), Sam Ficken K (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 15-7 in Jets’ last 22 AFC East divisional games. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Jets.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Jets were only 6.5-point road underdogs at Buffalo in Week 1, losing that contest 27-17 (a game the Bills led 21-0). But with no preseason prep, bettors should be wary of early-season results. This Week 7 spread opened as low as New York +10.5 and is sitting +13.5 as of Thursday morning.
Darnold did practice on Wednesday and there’s a chance he suits up Sunday after missing the past two games with a sprained shoulder. Should Darnold go, he will have his richest choice of receiving options since the start of the year, with WRs Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, and Chris Hogan all expected to suit up (despite being limited in practice).
Buffalo finds itself in a tough situation heading to East Rutherford. The Bills are in a potential letdown spot on a short week after a deflating loss to Kansas City on Monday and could also get caught looking ahead to a home showdown with New England in Week 8 – a game that will go a long way in deciding the AFC East.
The Bills are playing their worst football of the season, losing back-to-back outings by a combined score of 68-33 in very physical games against bruising rushing attacks from Tennessee and Kansas City. Couple that current form and situational hindrance with a lofty point spread, and it makes even the worst of teams (even a 0-6 ATS team) a viable bet.
If you are jumping on the Jets, make sure you get as many points as you can to pad against this poisonous team.
PREDICTION: New York +13.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Buffalo’s high-flying offense has been stuck in mud the past two outings, in part to Tennessee thoroughly humbling them and Kansas City not allowing Josh Allen to touch the football much (37:45 TOP). However, Allen has completed less than 59 percent of his throws in those two losses and has three interceptions in that span after tossing one pick through the first four games of 2020.
If Darnold is active, it does make the Jets offense a touch more dangerous – at least when compared to a Joe Flacco-led attack. The uptick in the passing game should also open up space for New York’s rushing playbook, which has been respectable despite opposing defenses not having to worry about the pass much and focus on slowing the run.
Gang Green has averaged more than 122 yards rushing the past three games, picking up five yards per carry. The offensive line could also see a boost with Mekhi Becton and Chuma Edoga returning from injuries. Buffalo is feeling a little tender after giving up 245 yards on the ground to the Chiefs on Monday and has allowed runners to break for 4.6 yards per rush on the season.
This 45-point total is the highest Over/Under for a Bills-Jets game in their past 10 meetings, with those past numbers hovering in the low 40s and high 30s going back to 2016. Given a potential flat spot for Buffalo and a run-focused offense from New York, we’re going Under in this edition of the AFC East rivalry.
PREDICTION: Under 45 (-110)
Player prop pick
The Jets defense has been plagued by the failings of the offense, and the stats are skewed because of it. New York’s stop unit has been on the field for an average of 32:36 per game – second-most in the league.
Football Outsiders defensive DVOA ranks Gang Green 24th, which is pretty respectable given the circumstances, with New York allowing opponents to convert on just 36 percent of their third-down tries the past three contests and limiting foes to a 63 percent TD rate inside the red zone. The Jets have also shown a knack for creating turnovers with nine takeaways on the season – seven on interceptions.
Allen has been all over the place the last two games with three INTs and a passer rating of just 75.92. He kept a clean sheet against the Jets in Week 1 and didn’t suit up in a Week 17 finale against New York in 2019, but was picked off twice by N.Y. in their Week 1 meeting last season. Allen also threw two interceptions against the Jets in December 2018. He owns a career passer rating of just 75.20 in four games versus New York.
PREDICTION: Josh Allen Over 0.5 interceptions (-140)
Bills vs Jets betting card
- New York +13.5 (-110)
- Under 45 (-110)
- Josh Allen Over 0.5 interceptions (-140)
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