The Buffalo Bills wrap up their regular season with a game against the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon.
Buffalo is locked into the No. 2 seed and will be resting key players in this Week 18 clash, which is why my Bills vs. Patriots predictions are backing the home side.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this AFC East clash on December 5. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, with the game airing on CBS.
Bills vs Patriots prediction
Bills vs Patriots moneyline prediction
It's always tough to handicap the final week in the NFL regular season, especially when it comes to gauging motivation in a meaningless game. The Bills have been open about resting key starters including MVP favorite Josh Allen who won't play past the opening drive.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are +115 on the moneyline at home and their young squad will put up a bigger fight than oddsmakers think.
Bills vs Patriots spread prediction
Despite the Bills clearly having the superior team since last season the Pats have played their rivals tough going 3-0 against the spread in the last three meetings. I'm not willing to lay points on a road team that will be resting key starters before the playoffs.
Bills vs Patriots total prediction
Even if Josh Allen barely plays this total looks a bit too low given how terrible both stop units have been over the last couple of months.
Predicted Score: Patriots 23-20
My best bet
Patriots moneyline (+115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
With a 13-3 record, the Buffalo Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed and have nothing to play for in Week 18. Star quarterback Josh Allen has talked about how much his consecutive starts streak of 115 matters to him, so expect him to start before quickly coming off the field.
Coach Sean McDermott has said that there will be a blend of starters and backups playing this week. That will make it hard for the Bills to win let alone cover as short road faves.
On the surface, the New England Patriots might also lack motivation since a defeat would mean they secure the No. 1 pick in the draft. That said, getting a young team to tank is never quite as simple as some fans would like. There are plenty of inexperienced and fringe starters on this New England squad who are fighting for their jobs and head coach Jerod Mayo could use a positive end to a bumpy season.
Keep in mind that when these teams clashed at Highmark Stadium just two weeks ago, the Patriots outgained the Bills 379-324 and lost by just three points. And that was with Buffalo still trying to win games.
The Patriots have been terrible on both sides of the ball but they've been playing better on offense since Drake Maye took over at QB.
Meanwhile, the Bills have regressed on defense and are just 30th in the league in defensive success rate since Week 9.
I'll take a shot on the Pats winning a meaningless game against an unmotivated Bills side.
Bills vs Patriots same-game parlay
Patriots moneyline
Over 38
These teams faced off two weeks ago in freezing conditions at Highmark Stadium and the total closed at 47.5. They combined for 703 yards and 45 points in that game and the drop-off from Josh Allen to Mitchell Trubisky isn't enough to justify the O/U slimming almost 10 points.
Especially since the Patriots are 30th in the league in defensive EPA. In addition, while the Bills are resting key starters on offense, they'll likely do the same on defense which will make things easier for Drake Maye & Co.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Bills vs Patriots odds
Bills vs Patriots live odds
Bills vs Patriots opening odds
- Spread: Buffalo -2 | New England +2
- Moneyline: Buffalo -125 | New England +105
- Over/Under: Over 41 | Under 41
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Bills vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis
- The total has plummeted from the opening number of 41 to 38.
- The Bills were 14-point home favorites with the total sitting at 47.5 when these teams clashed in Week 16.
- Starting LB Terrel Bernard has been ruled out for Buffalo and three starters in the secondary have been limited in practice.
- Pats might give some snaps to sixth-round rookie QB Joe Milton III after he took first-team reps in practice this week.
- According to Covers Consensus, 71% of spread picks are laying the points with Buffalo, while 51% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Bills vs Patriots betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1-1 in Buffalo's last eight games while going 5-1 in New England's previous six contests. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Patriots.
Bills vs Patriots game info
| Location: | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-5, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Bills vs Patriots latest injuries
Bills vs Patriots weather
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