Despite matching 2-1 records, the Buffalo Bills are the better team heading into their Week 4 meeting with the Baltimore Ravens and the 3-point spread is proof.
The Buffalo passing game could have a big day vs. this Baltimore secondary that has allowed over 1,000 yards through the air across three games, meaning Lamar Jackson & Co. might be slinging it again in Week 4 just to stay competitive.
Here are my free NFL picks and predictions for Bills vs. Ravens.
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Bills vs Ravens best odds
Bills vs Ravens picks and predictions
I already hit this in my weekly props article but I absolutely love Rashod Bateman’s Over 49.5 total receiving yards. This is a receiver who leads all of football in yards per catch (28.3), is first in YAC/catch (14.9), and is fourth in yards per target (14.1) in a game that has the highest total of Week 4.
His 49.5 receiving yards total is also the fourth largest of the game with Gabe Davis, Stefon Diggs, and Mark Andrews all having bigger totals than the Ravens’ No. 1 wide receiver.
Andrews has been a target hog on this Baltimore offense but has a tough matchup as Buffalo has traditionally contained opposing tight ends, with Matt Milano being one of the best coverage linebackers in football.
Bateman will also get to face an injured Buffalo secondary that has its starting corner and safety limited at practice this week.
It’s not easy to run against the Bills (Top 10 in EPA/rush and success rate), which means the Ravens will have to generate the majority of their offense through the air. Outside of Andrews, Bateman has twice as many targets as the next Baltimore WR and is primed for a big game.
He can hit this Over in a low-volume role but I’m projecting a larger target share in Week 4 with Andrews’ tough matchup. With the Baltimore defense allowing more passing yards per game than any other team in football, the game script is in Bateman's favor, as well.
My best bet: Rashod Bateman Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110)
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Bills vs Ravens spread analysis
It’s tough to argue against either team here as both clubs could arguably be 3-0 heading into Sunday. However, there's a reason the Bills are a three-point road favorite.
The Bills dominated Week 3 vs. the Dolphins. They ran 90 plays to Miami’s 39 and had 285 more yards of total offense. But three lengthy drives in the second half that resulted in just three points were enough to move this team to 2-1.
This is a Buffalo offense that sits first in success rate (5th in EPA/play) and can’t be stopped through the air, which is a great matchup vs. a Baltimore defense that has allowed at least 300 yards passing in all three games this season.
The Ravens could be 3-0 themselves but allowed the Dolphins to pass for 461 yards in Week 2. Their defense followed that up by letting Mac Jone pass for 321 yards on 22 completions in a back-and-forth battle vs. a bad offense last week. Jones’ 321 passing yards were the most the New England QB had thrown for since Week 5 of last year — and he wasn't even 100% healthy.
Ultimately, the Ravens beat Joe Flacco in Week 1, blew a 35-14 lead in Week 2, and needed four New England turnovers in the final 20 minutes in their Week 3 win.
If Buffalo wins last week and Baltimore doesn’t get all those turnovers, this line would be longer than BUF -3. It was -4 on the look-ahead and that’s where I think it should be now.
Bills vs Ravens Over/Under analysis
Overs have had a rough go so far in the 2022 NFL season. Through 47 games, the Over is 17-30, and totals of 50 or more are 2-7-1 O/U. Combined, both teams come into Sunday’s Week 4 game 3-3 O/U.
It’s going to feel like 55 degrees at game time with light rain and possible 15 mph winds. Not great passing conditions with the highest total of Week 4.
Looking at pace of play, this game projects as a much slower game than some people might expect. Baltimore ranks 25th in plays/sec (31st in the first half), while the Bills sit 19th (16th in the 1H).
Offensively, both clubs sit in the Top 5 in EPA/play but some bad defenses might be inflating these numbers — especially for the Ravens. There should be a lot of passing if the weather cooperates, however, as the Bills rank 3rd in EPA/dropback and the Ravens 4th.
The Bills might not be completely healthy in the secondary with the injuries to Dane Jackson and Jordan Poyer, but this four-man Buffalo pass rush is generating a Top-10 pressure rate despite blitzing at the lowest rate in the league. Jackson could see plenty of men in coverage which will be much different than the Miami and New England defenses he saw as those two clubs rank in the Bottom 10 in blitz percentage.
Bills vs Ravens betting trend to know
The Bills are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Ravens.
Bills vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, October 2, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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