Although it will be Stefon Diggs’ first game against his former team as the Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills in Week 5 action, my Bills vs Texans prop picks have wide receiver Nico Collins continuing his hot start to the season.
Find out more in my free NFL picks for Sunday, October 6.
Bills vs Texans props
- Collins Over 6.5 receptions (+115 at BetMGM)
- Allen Under 231.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Cook Under 59.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Bills vs Texans props
Prop bet #1: Nico Collins Over 6.5 receptions
When the Houston Texans traded for Stefon Diggs this past offseason, he was expected to become C.J. Stroud’s main target downfield. Although the ex-Bills star has been involved a lot, it’s been Nico Collins who has emerged as the No. 1 option down in Houston.
Collins is fourth in the NFL in receptions and ranks first in receiving yards with 489. That’s 100 more than Giants rookie Malik Nabers, who sits at 386.
The Texans wideout has hit eclipsed 6.5 receptions in two of four games so far, reeling in a whopping 12 receptions for 151 yards in a Week 4 victory over Jacksonville. Considering running back Joe Mixon is still out with an injury, expect the Texans to focus on generating offense downfield against the Buffalo Bills.
The star receiver will be involved a lot and shouldn’t have an issue hitting the over again here. He’s been targeted a minimum of 10 times in each of the last three games.
Prop bet #2: Josh Allen Under 231.5 passing yards
Josh Allen wasn’t great in last Sunday’s blowout loss to Baltimore, only throwing for 180 yards. That was against a pass defense that ranks 28th in the league, and now the Bills quarterback is set to face a Texans defense, allowing an average of 161 passing yards per contest — fourth-best in the NFL.
While Allen has hit the over in two of his four appearances, that was against two of the worst pass defenses in the league — the winless Jaguars (31st) and the Cardinals (17th).
It's well-known that Allen can be efficient and still generate points without throwing for a ton of yards, and I expect the Texans to limit him on Sunday.
Prop bet #3: James Cook Under 59.5 rushing yards
Although James Cook eclipsed 70+ rushing yards in his first two starts, the Bills RB1 finished with just 39 yards in back-to-back games.
The Texans are also great against the run, ranking 12th in the NFL. Between Cook’s recent struggles and Houston’s solid frontline, the Under holds value when it comes to the Bills running back.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
