The Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card round on Sunday afternoon.
Buffalo has looked like a Super Bowl contender, and my Broncos vs Bills predictions are betting on them to steamroll a young Denver team.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this AFC playoff game on January 12.
Broncos vs Bills prediction
Broncos vs Bills moneyline prediction
The Broncos are +350 underdogs on the moneyline, which accurately reflects their low chances of pulling off the upset here.
Kudos to the Broncos for surpassing expectations, but they are a young team heading on the road to face a Super Bowl contender.
Score prediction: Bills 30, Broncos 20
My best bet
Bills -9 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
At first glance, it might be tempting to take the points with the Denver Broncos, who went an NFL-best 12-5 against the spread during the regular season.
That said, the Broncos lack playoff experience and have struggled against quality opponents. If you take out their Week 18 win against Kansas City's backups, Denver went 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS against teams that finished the season .500 or better.
Despite leading the league in defensive EPA, the Broncos looked vulnerable in that area over the last month. The Chargers scored 34 points and averaged 6.4 yards per play against them in Week 16, and the Bengals torched them for 499 yards and 30 points in Week 17. Even the lowly Browns rolled up 552 yards and 32 points when they traveled to Denver on December 2.
If the Broncos couldn't contain Cleveland, they won't be able to slow down a Buffalo Bills offense that had the highest EPA/play in the NFL before resting MVP favorite Josh Allen in Week 18.
Denver's defense led the NFL in pressures (195) and sacks (63) but Buffalo's stout offensive line allowed the second-fewest pressures (93) and a league-low 14 sacks. In the back end, cornerback Patrick Surtain can lock up No. 1 wide receivers, but Allen spreads the ball around and excels against man coverage.
The Bills have shown cracks on defense, but Denver isn't built to take advantage of them. When you look at the teams that were able to move the ball against Buffalo during the second half of the season — Miami, Detroit, and the Rams — they all have significantly better weapons than Denver.
The Broncos haven't been able to establish the run and have placed a heavy burden on quarterback Bo Nix. While Nix looked impressive down the stretch, he's still a rookie QB playing on the road in the playoffs, and he doesn't have much help around him.
Broncos vs Bills same-game parlay
Bills -9
Over 47.5
Dawson Knox Over 10.5 receiving yards
With a high-scoring offense and a defense that regressed in the last couple of months, the Over is 9-2-1 in Buffalo's previous 12 games. The Over had also cashed in five straight games for Denver until Week 18 when they faced an unmotivated Chiefs side that rested Patrick Mahomes.
Bills tight end Dawson Knox has racked up 20+ receiving yards in five of his last seven games, and he's been logging a higher snap share than Dalton Kincaid. Denver brings a ton of pressure up front, which should lead to Allen throwing quick passes to targets like Knox.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More NFL Playoffs picks and odds from Covers
Broncos vs Bills odds
Broncos vs Bills live odds
Broncos vs Bills opening odds
- Spread: Denver +8.5 | Buffalo -8.5
- Moneyline: Denver +350 | Buffalo -450
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Broncos vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
- Denver hammered the Chiefs backups 38-0 in Week 18 to snap a two-game losing streak against the Chargers and Bengals.
- Buffalo rested four starters on offense and seven starters on defense in last week's regular-season finale.
- Before last week's meaningless game, the Bills had gone 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in their previous 11 contests.
- Both teams enter the playoffs healthy, with returner Brandon Codrington listed as the only "questionable" player on Buffalo.
Broncos vs Bills betting trend to know
Buffalo has hit the team total Over in 15 of its last 21 games (+8.60 Units / 35% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Bills.
Broncos vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-12-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Broncos vs Bills latest injuries
Broncos vs Bills weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
