Broncos vs Chiefs Odds, Picks, and TNF Predictions: KC Deploys Backfield in Passing Game

The Denver Broncos head to Arrowhead as double-digit road underdogs tonight in a Thursday Night Football divisional clash vs. the Kansas City Chiefs,  who have ripped off 10 straight wins vs. the struggling franchise.

TNF odds have seen some Under money after opening at 51 and moving to 47.5. With the KC backfield having an elite matchup in prime time, wind and rain projected in the forecast, and putting up massive receiving numbers over both meetings last year vs. Denver — should bettors be hitting the Over button on both KC running backs’ receiving totals?

I'll tell you as I dive into the NFL odds and give my free NFL picks for Broncos vs. Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. 

Also, be sure to check out our TNF prop picks, Russell Wilson prop picks, as well as our favorite Patrick Mahomes prop bets for more great bets!

Broncos vs Chiefs odds

Broncos vs Chiefs predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs took both meetings vs. the Denver Broncos last year and if Andy Reid is going to stay consistent, that means getting his running backs involved in the passing game.

On the year, KC ranks in the middle of the league with an 18.2% target share to RBs, but in the two games vs. Denver last year, Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco combined for 17 receptions, 215 yards, and four receiving touchdowns while soaking up a 25% target share.

McKinnon led the way with 164 receiving yards on 12 catches (15 targets) and all four scores. He is seeing 19.2 snaps a game this year, running over 10 routes a game, and getting targeted on 23% of those routes. He’s topped his 12.5 receiving yards total in three of his last four games even with a minimal role. If Reid uses him more in the matchup as he did last year, this Over 14.5 could be a first-half winner. 

Pacheco’s Over 13.5 receiving yards is also in play. He is getting 35 snaps a game and has run 16 more routes on the season. Last week was the first week he didn’t see multiple targets but he has a great matchup vs. a defense allowing 6.0 receptions for 51.2 receiving yards to opposing RBs on the season — both Bottom-5 marks.  

Travis Kelce was also listed as questionable on the estimated Monday practice report. He exited in Week 5 but returned with an ankle injury. If he sits or is limited on the short week, these Overs become even stronger as Kelce has a 25% target share since Week 2.

Making this play even stronger, Arrowhead is projected to have 23-mph winds and a strong chance of rain. Both teams might have to settle for shorter routes in the passing game with those conditions.  

Both Breece Hall and Michael Carter topped the 12-yard receiving mark last week vs. the Broncos. Khalil Herbert also hit his Over in Week 4 while Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane combined for 11 catches on 11 targets for 90 yards and three scores in Week 3.

I’m happy to take both backs at the same number. The large spread might be playing too big of a factor as Denver may have lost 10 straight to KC, but the matchup is 5-5 against the spread over that stretch. Even in an insane positive game script in Week 3, Miami got the ball in its backs’ hands in the passing game. 

Both 25-plus receiving yards alternative totals are in play and don't forget to add FanDuel's 50% profit boost to a single bet. 

My best bet: Pacheco Over 13.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel | +132 with 50% boost) and McKinnon Over 14.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel | +132 with 50% boost)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Broncos vs Chiefs same-game parlay

Isiah Pacheco Over 13.5 receiving yards

Jerick McKinnon anytime TD

Russell Wilson Over 19.5 rushing yards

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+1,696 +2,544 at FanDuel

Pacheco and McKinnon could see a ton of touches with the projected weather and positive game script. McKinnon had four TDs vs. Denver last year and his +350 odds are the best at FanDuel with some books as short as +260. 

Wilson will have plenty of chances to scramble as the Broncos could be chasing points all game. In two games vs. K.C. last year, the Denver QB totaled 84 rushing yards on eight carries and two scores. He is also coming off a 49-yard rushing effort in Week 5. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Broncos vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis

The Broncos entered Week 5 with the worst defense in football giving up 461.5 yards per game but got some healthy bodies back, including linebacker Josey Jewell and safety Justin Simmons. However, that wasn’t enough to turn Sean Payton’s defense into a respectable unit as Zach Wilson’s offense put up over 400 yards in the Jets’ victory, outgaining Denver’s offense by more than a yard per play. 

If it weren’t for the Bears’ epic collapse in Week 4, Denver would be entering Week 6 with an 0-5 record with back-to-back losses to the Bears and Jets.  

It won’t get any easier on the short week for Denver who has dropped 10 straight games to the Chiefs (5-5 ATS and 4-5-1 O/U). The defense is getting run over and the offense has been inconsistent. 

Entering the second half last week vs. the Jets with a 13-8 lead, Russell Wilson and the offense failed to get a first down in five consecutive possessions, including a lost fumble. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is an underrated unit that is certainly responsible for the team’s success as bettors have yet to see the best of the Chiefs offense.

Patrick Mahomes is spreading the ball around, completing passes to 10 different receivers in last week's victory over Minnesota. It’s tough to back receiver Overs on numbers above 30 yards, but there is value in pass catchers with numbers in the 20s. Six Chiefs players had at least 20 yards last week with only one topping 60, which was Kelce who is dealing with an ankle injury.

However, a divisional game on a short week is not a great spot to be laying 10.5 points. Denver closed as a 13.5-point road dog in the last meeting late last season in a 3-point KC win. This was 10.5 on the look-ahead and has seen a little resistance at 10.

It’s a great matchup for the KC backfield. Breece Hall averaged 8.0 yards per carry last week vs. the Broncos and ran for 177 yards with 17 yards through the air. This could lead the Chiefs to eat the clock. On the season, the Chiefs run plays at the ninth-slowest rate, which is three spots slower than the Broncos. 

This total has moved from 51 to 48.5 and then took some respected money Tuesday afternoon, moving it to 47.5. Denver is 9-1 to the Over in its last 10 games, and I’d expect the 47.5 to see some Over money. However, if the projected weather stays put, with 23-mph winds and a 75% chance of rain, then a 50-point game will be hard to be optimistic about. 

Broncos vs Chiefs betting trend to know

The Denver Broncos have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 17 games (-8.75 Units / -40% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chiefs.

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