Thursday Night Football kicks off NFL Week 4 betting with another less-than-sexy showdown between the Denver Broncos and New York Jets.
But, like we said last week when the Dolphins played the Jaguars, we should embrace these types of games for what they are: a perfect chance to showcase NFL betting. Even a battle of 0-3 teams can get the blood pumping with the right odds. Denver is a field goal favorite crossing the country to take on New York under the primetime lights.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Broncos vs. Jets on October 1.
Denver Broncos vs New York Jets betting preview
Weather
The forecast for East Rutherford is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the low 70s with winds blowing up to 5 mph Thursday night. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Broncos: Jurrell Casey DT (Out), Drew Lock QB (Out), Phillip Lindsay RB (Questionable), Courtland Sutton WR (Out), Davontae Harris CB (Questionable), A.J. Bouye CB (Out), Von Miller LB (Out).
Jets: Breshad Perriman WR (Out), Jordan Willis DT (Questionable), Jamison Crowder WR (Questionable), Mekhi Becton T (Questionable), George Fant T (Questionable), Ashtyn Davis S (Questionable), Chris Hogan WR (Questionable)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Jets.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Yikes. Picking one of these teams to cover the spread is like someone asking if you would rather have your hand or your foot nailed to the floor. Neither?
This line opened Denver -2.5 and I pleaded with those leaning towards the Broncos to get that spread as soon as they could in my Bet Now/Bet Later feature that came out Sunday night. That spread has since moved to a field goal, with money fading the flaming office chair of Adam Gase.
That recommendation move on Denver wasn’t a pick, but more of a suggestion for those who just couldn’t bring themselves to bet on Gang Green. And I don’t blame you for doing that. But…
This is a major step down in competition for New York, whose foes own a collective 7-2 record. And while the Broncos haven’t enjoyed a cakewalk either (opponents a collective 8-1), the Jets are at home and still have their No. 1 QB Sam Darnold (not sure if that’s a good thing but it accounts for something).
Denver, on the other hand, could be rolling out a third-stringer in Brett Rypien, who looked OK in a fourth-quarter flash versus Tampa Bay on Sunday. With No. 1 QB Drew Lock on the sidelines with a shoulder injury, and backup Jeff Driskel providing all the stability of a baby deer on a frozen lake, the Broncos could kick the tires on their QB options.
In the public eye, Denver hasn’t looked as bad as the Jets which is why this spread is trending the way it is. But with a hurried cross-country trip (and a second East Coast road game at New England next week) as well as big-time injuries, there could be value with the Jets (it sounds so wrong but stay with me).
I have to pick this game at Jets +3 right now, but see if this spread goes higher by Thursday night. Wait for the +3.5 or more on New York. If it doesn’t get there, feel free to pass on the point spread. No one would blame you for sitting this one out and catching up on Mr. Robot. It could actually be less bleak than this matchup.
Note: With Denver juggling QBs and more injuries mounting this week, this line has undergone a dramatic shift to Jets -1.5 as of Thursday morning, despite 62 percent of bets on the Broncos. This reverse line movement (spread moving opposite of the consensus) is a great indication that bigger bets and sharper play has taken New York and moved this spread over the fence to Jets -1.5.
PREDICTION: Jets +3 (-120)
Over/Under pick
The short week does neither team any favors in terms of recovery time. Both the Broncos and Jets have injuries to key contributors but perhaps the biggest sore spot is the New York receiving corps.
The Jets had two of their top targets sit out Sunday’s loss to the Indianapolis Colts, and their best receiver left, Chris Hogan, recorded zero catches on three targets. The team’s offensive issues (ranked dead last in yards and points) have been exasperated by its competition.
New York has faced three solid scoring attacks in Buffalo, San Francisco and Indianapolis, with those opponents jumping out to big leads before the halftime break and forcing New York to pass the ball and make its playbook very one-dimensional.
Denver doesn’t bring anything near the firepower of the Jets recent foes, and is dealing with injuries at quarterback, receiver, and running back. The Broncos are a few ticks behind N.Y. in terms of offensive production and Thursday night could be an uphill battle for both sides. It’s a really low total but what do you expect?
PREDICTION: Under 40 (-110)
First score prop
As mentioned, Denver and New York are dwelling in the basement of most offensive categories like a 45-year-old professional D&D master. And keeping the chains moving plays a large part in that atrophy.
The Jets and Broncos have converted on 32 and 34 percent of their third-down tries through three games, respectively. They also sit 32nd and 28th in red-zone touchdown percentage, missing out on the six points whenever they do venture within their opponents 20-yard line.
Both New York and Denver have recorded a field goal as their first score in two of their three 2020 games, and given that both defenses are dinged up and the offenses are what they are, Thursday Night Football could open with a field goal from either Brandon McManus or Sam Ficken.
PREDICTION: First score of game - Field Goal (-115)
Broncos vs Jets betting card
- Jets +3 (-120)
- Under 40 (-110)
- First score of game - Field Goal (-115)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Broncos vs. Jets picks, you could win $55.43 on a $10 bet?
Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.
