Broncos vs Raiders Week 4 Picks and Predictions: Wilson, Sutton Connection Stays Hot in the Desert

Sunday afternoon sees a divisional clash between the Broncos and Raiders in Las Vegas. The AFC West has been a tough division to call this year and the Broncos are tied for first place with the Chiefs. It’s been a nightmare start for the Raiders, who are 0-3 but have been close in all three games.

If the Raiders don’t get anything from Sunday’s game then it’s probably unlikely we’ll see them in the playoffs, while the Broncos need a strong performance. For this game, you need to read our NFL picks and predictions for the Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders.

Broncos vs Raiders best odds

Broncos vs Raiders picks and predictions

Russell Wilson’s arrival was meant to herald in a new era for the Broncos, their first franchise QB since Peyton Manning. With great talents such as Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy, and Courtland Sutton, there were plenty of weapons for the former Seahawks star. 

Jeudy has shown glimpses and Williams plenty of flashes of his game-breaking potential, but it’s Sutton who has been the standout so far.

Sutton is yet to find the end zone but he has 19 receptions on 28 targets across three games and has turned that into 291 yards. His line for the game sits at 66.5 receiving yards. He’s not had Under 66.5 yards in any game this year, with his lowest total being 72 in Week 1. 

The most important thing for bettors is that Sutton is clearly Wilson’s favorite target. He has nearly double the targets of the next nearest receiver in Jeudy. Crucially, he’s also been Wilson’s first read on 39.6% of snaps, which is the fourth highest in the league, behind Cooper Kupp, Mark Andrews, and CeeDee Lamb.

Sutton has been performing very well throughout the Broncos' struggles this season. Not only that, but he’s seeing elite usage, so you can expect that to continue against the Raiders. 

The Raiders haven’t been at their best defensively this season and have averaged 267 passing yards per game, with only six teams allowing more. All of this points towards Sutton having another big game and hitting the Over on his receiving yards.

My best bet: Courtland Sutton Over 66.5 receiving yards (-110)

Broncos vs Raiders spread analysis

Since the line opened the Raiders have become slightly heavier favorites, with the line moving from 2 to 2.5.

The Raiders are currently 0-3 but it’s worth noting that all three defeats have been by less than a score and in facing the Titans, Cardinals, and Chargers they’ve faced far tougher opposition than the Broncos.

Last week’s win over the 49ers and the win over the Texans were good, but those aren’t top-tier teams, and they sunk to defeat against the Seahawks.

We touched on the Raiders’ pass defense but the team has been far better against the run and should be able to limit Javonte Williams’ threat. Offensively, both teams are in the same ballpark of scrimmage yards but Davante Adams should be able to build on his good start for the Raiders and be a major threat to the Broncos. 

I’d lean towards backing the Raiders on the spread.

Broncos vs Raiders Over/Under analysis

The total has risen from 44.5 to 45.5, which shows which way the market believes this will go. With the great offensive talent on the field, the expectation is that we’ll see a high-scoring game. The Under is 5-1 in the Broncos’ past six road games and 8-0 in their past eight games following an ATS win. It’s also 4-1 in the Raiders’ last five games at the Allegiant Stadium. 

I don’t have a strong lean either way but if I were pushed, I’d suggest backing Under 45.5 points here and hoping that the Broncos and Raiders defenses can limit each other’s biggest threats.

Broncos vs Raiders betting trend to know

The Broncos are 0-6 in their last six road games vs. the Raiders. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Raiders.

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