Week 7 in the NFL kicks off with a showdown between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints this evening on Thursday Night Football. With a pair of rookie quarterbacks and a strong Denver defense, oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring contest with the O/U set at just 37.
That has led to totals in the NFL player props markets that are way too low when you consider other factors. See why I'm betting on Bo Nix, Alvin Kamara, and Javonte Williams to exceed expectations with my NFL picks for Broncos vs. Saints on Thursday, October 17.
Make sure to also check out our Broncos vs. Saints predictions before placing your bets!
Broncos vs Saints TNF props
Nix 200+ passing yards (+134 at FanDuel)
Kamara o33.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)- Williams o45.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick
Broncos vs Saints TNF props
Prop bet #1: Bo Nix 200+ passing yards
Bo Nix threw for just 138 yards and averaged 3.3 yards per attempt in Week 1 but oddsmakers have been consistently undervaluing the rookie QB since. The O/U on his passing yards prop has opened below 190 in four of his last five starts and he has thrown for 210+ yards in four of those contests.
He's fresh off a contest against the Chargers where he completed 19-of-33 passes for 216 yards and the analytics suggest that his numbers should have been even better. He posted his highest average depth of target (11.9 yards) this year and had an impressive adjusted completion percentage of 72.4% but was let down by two drops from his receivers.
The New Orleans Saints are fifth in the league in dropback EPA but are 14th in dropback success rate. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 300.8 yards per game against the Saints over their last five games. When you also factor in the fast surface inside the Caesars Superdome, Nix could easily eclipse his passing yards total here.
Prop bet #2: Alvin Kamara Over 33.5 receiving yards
With Derek Carr sidelined by an injury, New Orleans gave rookie Spencer Rattler his first career start last week. If you assumed that Saints play-caller Klint Kubiak would draw up shorter throws for his rookie QB you were right. Despite playing with a negative game script, only 13 of Rattler's 40 throws went 10+ yards downfield with 12 of his pass attempts going to his running backs.
Alvin Kamara is one of the top pass-catching backs in the NFL and he entered this season averaging 41.8 receiving yards per game in his career. He was limited to 24 receiving yards last week but still hauled in five receptions on eight targets and he had racked up 40+ receiving yards in his previous four games.
The Denver Broncos rank fifth in the league in passing yards allowed per game (170.2) but they are vulnerable to pass-catching backs, allowing the 16th-most receiving yards (195) to the position. With Denver's defense boasting the fourth-highest pressure rate in the league, expect Rattler to rely on quick passes to outlet options like Kamara.
Prop bet #3: Javonte Williams Over 45.5 rushing yards
Javonte Williams had just six carries for 23 yards against the Chargers last week. However, that was against the Chargers' top-rated run defense and the Broncos played with a negative game script for most of the contest leading to just 11 rush attempts from their backs.
The Saints will have Spencer Rattler at QB and will be missing their two-best receivers this week which has made the Broncos 3-point favorites. That makes it far less likely that Denver will fall behind early and be forced to abandon the ground game.
Williams rushed for 61 yards on 13 carries in Week 5 while rushing for 77 yards on 16 carries in Week 6. He should be able to go Over his low rushing yards total against a Saints defense that is 28th in rush EPA and allows 133.7 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry.
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