Broncos vs Titans Week 10 Picks and Predictions: All Hail to King Henry

Through nine weeks of the 2022 season, it's safe to say that this season has not gone as expected for the Denver Broncos (3-5). As things currently stand, Russell Wilson and Co. sit 12th in the AFC and two games behind the final playoff spot. Needless to say, they will look to come off of their bye week strong in Week 10.

Opposite them on Sunday is the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans, who slipped out of the AFC's two seed after losing a surprisingly close Monday night overtime game against the Chiefs with rookie quarterback Malik Willis filling in for the injured Ryan Tannehill. With Tannehill practicing in full during the week, he should return to a Titans team ready to finish the back half of the schedule strong.

Will Russell Wilson keep Denver's playoff hopes alive, or will Ryan Tannehill's return to the Titans add to the Broncos' continuous woes? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Broncos vs. Titans on November 13.

Broncos vs Titans best odds

Broncos vs Titans picks and predictions

It's pretty safe to say that when the Broncos' front office chose to make the blockbuster trade for Russell Wilson this offseason, they were expecting to see the team in a better position by this time of the season. After a 3-5 start and the Seahawks at 6-3, everyone involved on the Broncos' side has faced a healthy dose of ridicule, criticism, and anger.

Denver's 15.1 points per game rank third-worst in the NFL, and it managed that mark facing the eighth-easiest schedule of defenses according to DVOA. And to that DVOA point, the Broncos rank 27th in overall offense, 23rd in pass offense, and 25th in rush offense. In seven starts, Wilson has just six passing touchdowns and four interceptions while putting up a career-low in completion percentage (58.8%) despite a five-year low in yards per attempt (7.4).

The defense, on the other hand, has been the only reason this team has accrued even three wins. In terms of DVOA, they rank second in overall defense and first in pass defense. Their rush defense (25th) is certainly a weak spot, however, and will be worse off with the trade deadline departure of Bradley Chubb.

That is music to Derrick Henry's ears, who is coming off of a 115-yard two-touchdown performance on just 17 carries. Henry almost single-handedly beat the Chiefs on Monday night with rookie Malik Willis under center and Ryan Tannehill sidelined. 

The other hero of the amicable Monday night performance was the Titans' defense. The unit ranks 10th overall by defensive DVOA but is the league's best rush defense by the same metric. That spells trouble for a group of misfit running backs that includes the disgruntled and mostly ineffective Melvin Gordon, and the recent additions of Latavius Murray and Chase Edmonds.

If Denver can't generate much on the ground on Sunday, Wilson hasn't shown the capability to keep drives alive through the air. With the line where it is, there is a clear way to go with this game.

My best bet: Titans -2.5 (-113 at Unibet)

Broncos vs Titans spread analysis

Given that many were expecting the Titans to regress a bit after trading away AJ Brown and the aging of Henry, the Titans have faced (in hindsight) some favorable numbers against the spread.

And for that reason, plus given that they currently possess a 5-3 straight up record, it should come as no surprise that they are tied for the best record against the spread this season at 6-2.

Conversely, given the high expectations that were set for the Broncos following their big trade for Wilson, the Broncos have faced (and continue to face) inflated spread numbers. It's for those reasons that they are 3-5 against the spread — tied for the eighth-worst record in that regard.

Broncos vs Titans Over/Under analysis

Most shops opened at a total of around 40.5, and all have come down quite a bit to 37.5. Despite the sizable jump on an already low total, game-script supports the move.

The Broncos have been very ineffective through the air and are unlikely to generate much against one of the league's best defenses against the run. To make matters worse, wideout K.J. Hamler is trending toward not playing. Although he hasn't been productive on the stat sheet, Hamler's blazing speed does help create space in the passing game for intermediate throws.

On the other side, Denver would be wise to stack the box against the towering Henry and force a returning-from-injury Tannehill to throw to one of the league's worst wide receiver corps against one of the league's best secondaries. In essence, we may be seeing a lot of three-and-outs on Sunday, and the game could grind to a halt for extended periods of time.

Broncos vs Titans betting trend to know

The Titans are 6-2 ATS, tied for the best mark in the NFL. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Titans.

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